Golf Betting Tips and Picks
The PGA Tour heads from Greensboro, North Carolina, to Memphis, Tennesse, for the first FedEx Cup playoff event at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. We have the top 125 players in the FedEx Cup standings competing this week, and the top 65 golfers plus ties after round 2 will move on to play round 3 and round 4 on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
There’s a ludicrous $15M to be won this week, the winner takes home $2.7M and also receives a very generous 2,000 FedEx Cup points, which is 4x more than the average PGA Tour event. TPC Southwind is 7,237 yards in length, is a par 70, and the greens are Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -16, and expect the score to be in the teens under par this week if past results at TPC Southwind are any indication. Place bets on golfers who are fantastic on approach, sound tee to green, solid off the tee, great at putting on Bermudagrass, and can get up and down well around the greens.
Increase your odds of winning each one of your golf bets by using projected PGA Tour player stats and finishes.
Three questions that are relevant to the FedEx St. Jude Championship this week:
1. Which players have the most top 10’s at TPC Southwind over the last five years? Chez Reavie with 3, and three players have 2 including Matt Fitzpatrick, Billy Horschel, and Stewart Cink.
2. Will Tony Finau keep winning? He’s coming off of back-to-back victories and he won this event last year, albeit it was played at Liberty National in New Jersey. He’s really on his A-game these days, and while I wouldn’t be shocked if he won this week, I would be surprised given the immense talent in the field and winning three golf tournaments in a row is very rare these days.
3. This is a ball-strikers course, which 10 golfers have been the best in this stat category over the last 24 rounds? Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Brendan Steele, Cameron Young, Will Zalatoris, Joaquin Niemann, Mito Pereira, Jon Rahm, and Collin Morikawa.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20, top 30, or 40 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Rory McIlroy (+900) – If I could only bet one golfer this week to win, it would be McIlroy since he has been killing it since The Masters with six top 8’s in eight starts, including his win at the Canadian Open, and his ball-striking numbers are unreal gaining at least 5.77 strokes in the stat category in eight straight starts. He has no weaknesses, finished T4 here three years ago, and was T12 last year when he gained an insane 12.35 strokes ball-striking and lost 6.13 with his short game – even if he was merely average in that department, he would have likely won. You can bet Rory any way you’d like to this week; I’m in on him heavily!
Patrick Cantlay (+1400) – Tough choice for my number two in this range, but settled on Cantlay since he’s coming off a T2 in Detroit, has three straight top 8’s, and aside from one missed cut over his last eleven starts, he has been on fire. He’s a good ball-striker and a sublime short gamer gaining anywhere from 4.39 to 9.40 strokes over his last six starts. I’m going to bet him to win this week – not a ton like I have on Rory, but a small amount, but I’ll be betting him to finish top 10 and top 20 quite aggressively.
Avoid: Jon Rahm (+2000) – Rahm isn’t his usual self, not since winning the Mexico Open in early May, and has gone 48th-T10-12th-T55-T34 since. Other than solid stats in his off-the-tee game, the rest of his stats are just a bit over average. I’ll bet him again next season but will likely leave him on the sidelines throughout the playoffs unless he pops off this week.
+2600 to +5000
Sungjae Im (+3500) – I got back on the Im train last week after his T2 at the 3M Open, and he rewarded me with another T2 in Greensboro. He has gained almost 17 strokes ball-striking over his last two starts, and almost 8 strokes putting. He hasn’t put on a clinic at this track just yet, but I can see another top 10 coming for Sungjae this week – worst case a top 20, bet him accordingly.
Russell Henley (+5000) – This course is very much a ball-strikers paradise, and Henley is coming of a T5 last week where he gained 10.64 strokes in the stat category. He now has back-to-back top 10’s and all he needs is a bit better than average putting to claim another. I’m betting him to finish top 10 and top 20 this week – more money on the top 20 side since that’s where I think he will end up. He hasn’t played here in a few years, but did collect a T7 in 2016, so that’s a positive.
Avoid: Max Homa (+5000) – TPC Southwind doesn’t seem to suit Homa as he has lost strokes total in five starts here, none worse than his 13.98 loss in 2019 – good thing that was a WGC event as he still got paid despite losing strokes across the board. He has been fine lately, but has been reliant on his short game, and I’m after ball-strikers this week.
+5100 to +10000
Taylor Pendrith (+10000) – Pendrith is flashing excellent form these days and has been extra solid over his last five starts with all of them being T13 or better, his best came two weeks ago in Detroit where he finished runner-up thanks to gaining 9.55 strokes ball-striking. He doesn’t have experience here, but I still like him as a top 20 wager and will be betting him even harder to finish top 40.
Chez Reavie (+10000) – He won three starts ago at the Barracuda Championship, and he has been excellent at this venue with three top 6’s from 2017 to 2020, and his worst finish over his last six appearances is a T27 which he landed in 2013 and in 2019. You may want to sprinkle a few bucks on a top 10 for him, and go harder with a top 20, a top 30, and/or a top 40. Even a top 40 bet on Reavie this week will more than double your money.
Avoid: Keegan Bradley (+10000) – Bradley has two missed cuts in his last three starts and only came away with a T44 in Detroit in his most recent start two weeks ago. His main weapon, his ball-striking, hasn’t been so good since late June, and he finished T61 here in 2019 and a T52 in 2020 – both fields were around 80 golfers total, so this course doesn’t seem to fit his eye. In 2019, he lost 13.98 strokes total and 6.05 on approach alone – avoid Keegan until next season.
+11000 and higher
Scott Stallings (+13000) – Stallings is on a heater with a T8-T4-T10-T13 over his last four starts and every part of his game is responsible for the spectacular results. He has been typically in the 20’s, 30’s, and 40’s at this tournament over the years, but did secure a T2 in 2013. Depending on how bullish you are on Scott this week you can bet him anywhere from a top 20 to a top 40 finish, or even venture into top 10 territory but I would advise against it given the supreme talent in the field.
Cameron Davis (+13000) – Things are clicking with Davis now as he has gone T8-6th-T16-T14 over his last four starts and is mostly doing it through strong ball-striking. You could try a top 20 wager on him this week, but I would settle in the top 30 or top 40 range.
Avoid: Webb Simpson (+13000) – Things aren’t quite right with Simpson right now, case in point, he withdrew from his favorite tournament of the year last week at the Wyndham Championship, one that he has traditionally dominated over the years with nothing much working in any part of his game throughout round 1 and round 2. He has two missed cuts, a T69, and a withdraw/missed cut over his last four starts and his stats during this stretch are terrible. Maybe next year Webb, maybe next year.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
