30 Statistical Observations From NFL Sunday

How has your fantasy football team fared in Week 4? This article will share some statistical observations from Sunday’s slate of games. 

Jacksonville Jaguars 26, Denver Broncos 24

Leonard Fournette’s was a key contributor in the Jaguars thrilling comeback win over Broncos. Jacksonville now has a 2-2 record while Denver has yet to win a game. Did you know that this was the Broncos first home loss where they led by 14 or more points since November 19th, 2006? Denver lost to the San Diego Chargers 35-27 after leading 24-7. Let’s dive into each fantasy-relevant position.

The Minshew magic continues with his first game-winning drive. His legend continues to grow, but despite the swagger and moxie Minshew can still be viewed as a solid QB2 in fantasy. Minshew is averaging 30.25 pass attempts, 226.25 passing yards, and 17.1 fantasy points per game this season. 

QB @GardnerMinshew5 is the first player in @Jaguars history to throw for at least 200 passing yards with a passer rating of at least 95.0 in four consecutive games.

— Tad Dickman (@TDickman89) September 29, 2019

This was one of Flacco’s better games of the season. The Broncos offensive line struggles to protect him continues. The unit had the fifth-lowest protection rate through three games entering this season. Flacco’s lack of mobility doesn’t help the situation as he was sacked six times against the Jaguars. He’s averaging 37 pass attempts, 269 passing yards, and 14.4 fantasy points per game this season. Flacco continues to be a matchup based QB2 moving forward. 

The @Broncos have now lost 2 games this season where they took the lead in the last 2 minutes of regulation before losing on a FG with :00 remaining.

Joe Flacco is 0-4 to start the season for the first time in his career. pic.twitter.com/9g9oFmH0Q8

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) September 30, 2019

Leonard Fournette is back on the RB1 radar with his most productive and effective game of the 2019 season. The 24-year old RB had negative fantasy points over expectation entering this game. Fournette is now averaging 18 rushing attempts, 101 rushing yards, and 5.75 targets per game. His usage as a runner and receiver out of the backfield will keep him involved in the Jaguars offense whether they are leading or trailing. 

With 225 rushing yards today, @_fournette is the 4th running back to have 200+ rushing yards in a game in the last 3 seasons.

3 of those 4 RB performances have come against the Denver Broncos (Fournette, Isaiah Crowell, and Todd Gurley).

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 30, 2019

The Broncos RB by committee with Lindsay and Freeman continue to severely cap their fantasy upside. Both are firmly on the RB3 radar as they alternate playing offensive series. Lindsay (21) and Freeman (16.3) were seeing a similar number of opportunities per game entering Week 4. 

Emmanuel Sanders led the Broncos wide receivers with 135 air yards. Sutton finished with 63. Both WRs was targeted nine times and are on the WR3 radar each week as the top-two receivers in a below-average offense. The receivers of the Jaguars didn’t have too much to do considering how Fournette was playing. D.J. Chark continues to be the Jacksonville WR to own. He currently leads the team in targets (27) and air yards (378). 

Fant scored his first career touchdown and showcased his yards after the catch ability on a 25-yard reception. He continues to be nothing more than a low-end TE3. The Broncos offense isn’t productive enough to support more than two relevant fantasy receiving options in Sanders and Sutton. The same can be said about the Jaguars offense. Chark continues to be the only fantasy relevant receiver in Jacksonville. The Broncos visit the Carolina Panthers on Sunday while the Jaguars visit the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 5. 

Chicago Bears 16, Minnesota Vikings 6

The Bears lost quarterback Mitchell Trubisky to a left shoulder injury in this game. Chicago’s defense was able to shut down Dalvin Cook. The Bears are now 3-1 and avoided an 0-2 start on their home field. Another loss at Soldier Field to an NFC North rival would have been disastrous for Chicago. Let’s dive into each fantasy-relevant position.

Daniel was serviceable in relief of injured starter Trubisky. He leaned heavily on the Bears defense to secure the victory. Kirk Cousins continues to look miscast as the Vikings starting quarterback considering the receiving weapons they have on the roster. He has averaged 24.75 pass attempts and 183.75 passing yards per game. Cousins was sacked six times in this game for 51 yards. The Vikings offense has leaned heavily the running game this season under new offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski. Negative game flow forced the Cousins to throw the football and the results were not stellar. 

Adam Thielen: “At some point, you’re not going to be able to run the ball for 180 yards, even with the best running back in the NFL. That’s when you have to be able to throw the ball. … You have to be able to hit the deep balls.”

— Chad Graff (@ChadGraff) September 30, 2019

It’s hard to trust Cousins as anything more than a low-end QB2. He does have a plus matchup against the Giants in Week 5 who are allowing 279.5 passing yards per game. 

The Bears defense focused on shutting down Cook and it paid dividends. He has run for at least 110 rushing yards or more in the first three games. Cook was able to salvage his fantasy day for scoring one rushing touchdown. He can continue to be viewed as an RB1 moving forward. Cook’s usage against the Bears as a receiver out of the backfield was very encouraging. 

It was encouraging to see the Bears continue to use Montgomery as a workhorse. He’s averaged 21 opportunities per game over Chicago’s last three. The bad news is that Montgomery hasn’t been efficient with the volume. He continues to be a volume-based RB3. 

Robinson was very productive considering the matchup against the Vikings secondary and the game flow of the second half as the Bears lean heavily on the running game.

Allen Robinson has been fantastic for the Bears through four games. Today, he was targeted seven times, catching seven passes for 77 yards.

Robinson is on pace for 96 receptions and 1,120 yards.

— Chris Emma (@CEmma670) September 30, 2019

Diggs had his most productive game of the season. He had more receiving yards against the Bears than Diggs has had the first three games of the season. It was surprising to see Thielen hit rock bottom in receiving yards this game considering the high floor he’s provided fantasy players over the last two seasons. Robinson is a weekly WR3. Thielen can be viewed as a low-end WR2 while Diggs is more a WR3. 

Burton has accumulated 13 targets since his season debut in Week 3. He’s barely on the TE2 radar. The same can be said for Rudolph. 

Seattle Seahawks 27, Arizona Cardinals 10

The Seahawks pulverized the Cardinals into submission on the road. Seattle led 20-3 at half time and are now 3-1. The Cardinals, now 0-3-1, moved the football well in the first half while struggling in the red zone. The Seahawks haven’t lost in Glendale since 2012. Let’s dive into each fantasy-relevant position.

Wilson didn’t have to do much in this game. Did you know he hasn’t thrown an interception all season? The Seahawks defense held the Cardinals in check and Jadeveon Clowney had a spectacular interception return for a touchdown. Wilson is still an elite QB1 and a matchup against a division rival in the Rams should be more competitive. He’s averaging 24 fantasy points per game.

Murray’s NFL’s career up to this point has seen a number of highs and lows. He scored his first career rushing touchdown in this game. The offensive line continues to be a problem as Murray was sacked four times. It’s best to view him as an upside QB2. Murray and the Cardinals could bounce back against the Bengals on the road in Week 5. He’s averaged 18 fantasy points per game this season. 

David Johnson led the Cardinals with a 34 percent target share. Arizona’s offensive line isn’t helping the running game. Johnson is a volume-based RB1 and is currently averaging 18.6 PPR fantasy points per game. 

The most important statistic from this game as it relates to Chris Carson is that he had zero fumbles. He had 26 opportunities in this game and missed an opportunity for additional fantasy points as C.J. Prosise scored a rushing touchdown. It remains to be seen what the Seahawks backfield will look like once Rashaad Penny returns. Carson is back on the RB2 radar. 

Fitzgerald (1,326 receptions) has now moved past Tony Gonzalez for the No. 2 spot on the NFL’s career receptions list according to Pro Football Reference. He’s averaging 16.2 PPR fantasy points per game and is a weekly WR2. Fitzgerald finished the game with only 11 air yards. 

Kirk’s target share in a game with the Cardinals was trailing for most of it was disappointing. He also limped off the field in the game’s final 30 seconds. We should learn more about the nature of his injury today or tomorrow. 

Lockett wasn’t asked to do much in this game. He caught 25 of 30 targets for 284 receiving yards and a touchdown over the Seahawks last three games. Lockett can be viewed as a weekly WR1. 

Play-action to Tyler Lockett is such a cheat code. Great throw by Russell Wilson. #Seahawkspic.twitter.com/RFHtv59fE1

— Samuel Gold (@SamuelRGold) September 29, 2019

Dissly has become the TE1 you never knew you needed. He has turned 19 targets into 18 receptions, 169 receiving yards, and four touchdowns since returning from injury in Week 2.

Will Dissly has 6 TDs in 8 career games.

— Joe Fann (@Joe_Fann) September 29, 2019

The Seahawks host the Rams for Thursday Night Football while the Cardinals travel to face the Bengals for their second road game of the season. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55, Los Angeles Rams 40

The Buccaneers outran the Rams behind Winston’s four touchdown passes. Tampa Bay had an 18 point lead get whittled away by Los Angeles. Winston and company made sure that history would not repeat itself after last week’s collapse against the New York Giants. Let’s dive into each fantasy-relevant position.

Winston was surprisingly good considering the matchup. He’s still on the QB1 radar in most weeks, but have the potential to implode at any moment. Goff’s stat line covers up a terrible game marred by three interceptions and a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. 

Jared Goff has 14 fumbles in his last 13 games (including playoffs)

— Riley McAtee (@RileyMcAtee) September 29, 2019

Goff’s only averaging 16 fantasy points per game this season. 

Gurley only had 12 touches as he continues to split snaps and opportunities with Malcolm Brown. This is a perfect opportunity to sell high. Barber’s usage was very encouraging. Jones has had 35 touches over the last two weeks and looks really good on film. He has ascended to RB3 status moving forward. 

This was Godwin best game of his young career. He’s averaging 22.2 PPR fantasy points per game this season. Godwin can be viewed as a high-end WR2. 

Chris Godwin is the first Buccaneers WIDE RECEIVER to have 12 catches in a game since Keyshawn Johnson against Chicago on 11/18/01.

— Scott Smith (@ScottSBucs) September 29, 2019

Woods was targeted an incredible 15 times and exceeded the receiving yards he had all season this week against the Buccaneers. This was a career-high for him in receptions, receiving yards, and targets. 

O.J. Howard continues to be missing in action. He was touted as a breakout candidate this summer. Howard is only averaging 5.3 PPR point per game. Ironically this is the same per game average as Cameron Brate this season. 

The Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to take on the Saints while the Rams face the Seahawks on Thursday night in their first division game. 

Carolina Panthers 16, Houston Texans 10

Kyle Allen and the Panthers overcame three fumbles to defeat the Texans. Houston hade trouble sustaining offensive drives despite being given a short field after multiple turnovers. The Texans and the Panthers both have a 2-2 record. 

Watson was sacked six times in this game and couldn’t get into a rhythm which resulted in the Texans leaning more on short to intermediate passes. Offensive line play has plagued the Texans offense all season.

The @HoustonTexans‘ 10 points today is their lowest scoring output in Deshaun Watson’s 26 career starts. #CARvsHOU

— NFL Research (@NFLResearch) September 29, 2019

Watson has averaged 20.3 fantasy points per game this season. He’s still a QB1 and should bounce back next week at home against the Texans. 

The Panthers continue to lean heavily on McCaffrey. He’s averaged 32 touches per game over Carolina’s last two with Allen under center. Hyde actually finished with more targets than Johnson. He’s averaged 14 rushing attempts per game over the last three. 

Watson couldn’t connect with Hopkins and Fuller. The two did lead the Texans in air yards. Hopkins led the team with 116 while Fuller accumulated 89. Samuel continues to be Allen’s preferred receiving option. He led the Panthers with 151 air yards. 

Olsen’s stat line was disappointing considering the rapport he had with Allen last week. The one positive is that he ran a route of 84 percent of Allen’s dropbacks. 

The Panthers host the Jaguars in Week 5 while the Texans host the Falcons. 

Cleveland Browns 40, Baltimore Ravens 25

The Browns finally delivered on the hype as Baker Mayfield and Nick Chubb propelled them to an impressive win over the Ravens. Cleveland and Baltimore both enter Week 5 with a 2-2 record. 

Mayfield is back on the QB1 radar after this performance against what many expected to be a stout Ravens defense. This could be a sign of things to come as the second-year QB and the Browns take on the 49ers in Week 5. Jackson has found himself playing from behind for the second consecutive week and it has impacted his fantasy output. His streak of 248 pass attempts without an interception ended. This was the second consecutive week the Ravens defense has allowed 500 or more total yards. 

Chubb averaged a ridiculous 1.70 fantasy points per touch. He finished with 165 yards and three touchdowns against the NFL’s third-ranked rushing defense.

This was the first game in Browns history they had a 300-yard passer (Baker Mayfield), 150-yard rusher (Nick Chubb) and 150-yard receiver (Jarvis Landry), according to Elias Sports Bureau. https://t.co/xovmUxsMHA

— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) September 29, 2019

Chubb can be viewed as an elite RB1 and someone to consider selling high if you are concerned about Kareem Hunt’s impact on the backfield once he returns from suspension. 

The biggest surprise was Landry and Beckham’s target share. Beckham led the Browns with 120 air yards while Landry led the way with 124 yards after the catch. It’s easy to panic after Beckham’s performance. He’s been held to 71 or fewer receiving yards in three of the Browns four games this season. Beckham is still a WR1 and that definitive performance could be coming this week against the 49ers.     

Andrews led the Ravens with 94 air yards and targets. The Browns face the 49ers on the road for Monday Night Football in Week 5 while the Ravens face the Steelers on the road. 

New York Giants 24, Washington Redskins 3

Jones and the Giants defense helped to lead the team to a win over the Redskins. Washington’s 0-4 start is their worst since losing their first five in 2001 according to Pro Football Reference. 

 Jones came back down to Earth in this game. He has QB1 upside in the right matchup. Even with Golden Tate returning the Giants Week 5 matchup against the Vikings is not the best game to stream Jones.   

Those who acquired Gallman during last week’s waiver run were immediately rewarded with a big game. He filled in admirably in place of Saquon Barkley. According to Pro Football Reference (and Matthew Berry also tweeted this out), Gallman was the first player this season with a rush TD, a receiving TD and over 50 scrimmage yards in the first half of a game this season.

Sterling Shepard led the Giants in targets and air yards (78). He can continue to be deployed as a WR3 in most matchups. 

Engram led the Giants with 41 yards after the catch. You can continue to start him weekly as an elite TE1. The Redskins host the Patriots and the Giants host the Vikings in Week 5. 

Rapid Fire 

Los Angeles Chargers 30, Miami Dolphins 10

#Chargers Austin Ekeler has 490 total yards and 6 TDs after a quarter of the season.

Should the team really send him to the bench in favor of Melvin Gordon who already has one foot outta door? pic.twitter.com/TqvLAdMTak

— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) September 30, 2019

It would be surprising to see Ekeler not have a role in the Chargers backfield moving forward. We could be seeing more of a 50:50 split between he and Melvin Gordon. 

Oakland Raiders 31, Indianapolis Colts 24

Current top-five RBs in YAC/attempt according to @PFF (Min 30 carries):

1) Mark Ingram – 4.02
2) Josh Jacobs – 3.97
3) Raheem Mostert – 3.76
4) Matt Breida – 3.71
5) Royce Freeman – 3.69 #FantasyFootball

— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) September 30, 2019

Jacobs is excelling as a runner and receiver. There is still an opportunity to use him more as a receiver out of the backfield. Jacobs finished with two receptions on 13 pass routes. He only had 79 rushing yards in a game where the Raiders finished with 188. 

Kansas City Chiefs 34, Detroit Lions 30

Kerryon Johnson in two games since the CJA release:

* 73% of the snaps
* 79% of the RB carries
* 24.5 touches per game

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) September 30, 2019

Johnson had the second-best game of his career with 125 rushing yards. He also set a new career-high in rushing attempts (26) while playing 70 or more percent of the Lions offensive snaps in two consecutive weeks. 

New England Patriots 16, Buffalo Bills 10

Why do some people say Frank Gore isn’t a Hall of Famer? He now has 15,000 yards and later this year will pass Barry Sanders for No. 3 all time.

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) September 29, 2019

Devin Singletary’s hamstring issues have allowed Gore to stay fantasy relevant as RB3 or flex option. 

Tennessee Titans 24, Atlanta Falcons 10

Most NFL Receptions
(3 TEs in Top 6)

34
Keenan Allen
Michael Thomas

33
Darren Waller

32
Cooper Kupp

28
Austin Hooper

27
Evan Engram

— Jayson Braddock (@JaysonBraddock) September 30, 2019

Hooper has been targeted 18 times by Matt Ryan over the last two games. He’s currently the TE2 in PPR formats and should be started every week as a TE1. 

Conclusion

The Bengals and the Steelers will face off against each other on Monday Night Football. Be on the lookout for the Week 5 edition of Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em, my Week 5 rankings, and an analysis of some of our Advanced Metrics. If you have questions don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter (@EricNMoody). Thanks for reading and please sign up for FantasyData Premium.