DraftKings NFL Picks Week 4
Hopefully, everyone is having a successful start to the season. Let’s keep it going and take a look at what week 4 has to offer.
Review: “Chalk, Pivots, and Punts” is an NFL DFS series focused around main slate GPPs. We go game by game looking at potential chalk plays to pivot away from, and perhaps discover some diamond in the rough type punt plays to add a differentiation piece to our builds. Each game will have a brief write up and will include the team’s projected point total and Vegas Implied point spread as of the time of writing. Here is a link to a Google Sheet that presents data I collect throughout the season breaking down points allowed to specific positions, and displays home/road splits, as well as the combined data. Below are links to the final data from last year I posted to Twitter.
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing where defenses allowed fantasy points by position last year
- Link to Tweet: Chart showing how defenses allowed TDs by Passing & Rushing last year
When discussing pivot plays, it’s not always as simple as saying “Player A” is chalk so pivot to “Player B”. Pivots can be a pivot from one player to another player at the same position, a pivot from one position to another, or just a way to pivot to the other side of a game that everyone else might be heavy to one side of. Simply put, the pivots will not always be direct pivots, more like other ideas to consider in the macro-view of the slate.
Below is my Chalk, Pivots, and Punts Chart based on my opinion of the slate and what the field will likely be on this week.
Let’s get after it…
Tennessee Titans (21.0/+3.5) at Atlanta Falcons (24.5/-3.5) [45.5]
Derrick Henry ($6300) has at least one rushing touchdown in every game so far this year and Atlanta has allowed at least one rushing touchdown in every game so far this year. Henry will be the focus of the Falcons defense this week and can be game script dependent (see last week) which makes him a tougher buy for me. Considering where the Falcons are weakest, we really should be looking to attack their secondary and coverage of RBs by their linebackers. Dion Lewis ($3700) has been useless this year in fantasy, so this points us toward the WRs and TEs if we want to roster any Titans. Delanie Walker ($4800) should see around 7 targets in this game and he has a very solid 2.09 fantasy points per target, which would project for 14.6 points if he does see those 7 targets. It’s possible one of the receivers has a good game, and looking at the FPA chart in the link at the beginning of this article indicates the Falcons are surrendering 20+ points per game to opposing #1 WRs. Problem is, Corey Davis ($4200) is the Titan’s #1 WR and he hasn’t done anything to warrant consideration to this point. Mariota spoke about how he needs to do a better job of getting him the ball in the team’s presser on Wednesday. Perhaps this is the week to dust him off at $4200 and nearly no ownership? Worth a shot in MME at least. The Titans are likely going to be playing from behind in this game, forcing them to throw. Adam Humphries ($4000) saw 9 targets last week and nearly got to 100 yards. He was a favorite of Mariota in the preseason, and could also be worth a look in larger tournaments. Matt Ryan leads the NFL in intercepted passes, which adds some appeal to using the Titans DST ($2600) as a punt option this week.
The Falcons have faced some tough defenses to start the year and have managed to score 24 points in their last two games. They get the benefit of playing at home on turf this week. The Titans will be a challenge for them schematically. We’ll have to bet on talent over match-ups for their guys this week, as the match-up chart does not indicate any glaring weaknesses which is a carryover from how it looked last year, too. Matt Ryan ($5900) has attempted the 4th most passes on the year and is 4th in completion percentage with 72.4% of his passes connecting with his targets. Ryan is also 4th in Air Yards per game. This is the type of volume and efficiency we should be targeting in DFS, especially when it’s priced below $6k. There may be a good amount of folks that fade Ryan due to the tougher “on paper” match-up for him compared to other QBs this week, but we need to be aware of his tremendous upside, which is greater in home games. Ian Hartitz tweeted out an eye-opening stat showing the number of games since week 1 of 2018 where a QB has gone for both 300+ yards and 3+ TDs. Matt Ryan has 6 such games, second only to Pat Mahomes’ ten.
Julio Jones ($7800) has been his top target with 30 chances (24% of team targets) at catching a pass so far this year. Jones is tied for the NFL lead in TD catches for a WR with four and has caught a TD in every game so far. Furthermore, Jones has caught a TD in 7 straight games dating back to last season and has 12 TDs in his last 12 games. Gone are the days of Jones not reaching pay dirt. Let your competitors live with that narrative while you roster Jones at a sub-$8k price and smash this week. Calvin Ridley ($5000) is coming off of a dud last week but had TDs in his first two games, as well as a 100 yard game in week 2. He has a solid 10.3 yards per target and the 13th highest fantasy points per target with 2.5. Austin Hooper ($4300) was quietly having himself a nice season before last week’s 2 TD performance grabbed everyone’s attention. Hooper is seeing the second-highest target percentage on the Falcons (behind Julio at 18%) and he is averaging 6.3 targets per game for 8 YPT and 2.21 fantasy points per target (5th among TEs). That kind of usage and efficiency gives him attractive upside in a game the Titans could look to take Julio away leaving him open over the middle. The Titans are not bleeding points to TEs, but they’re not shutting them down either. Hooper is a nice pivot option this week. Devonta Freeman ($5000) has been rather pedestrian this year and didn’t seize an opportunity to get it going last week against the run funnel Colts defense missing their star middle-linebacker. He had a couple of nice runs but was somewhat of a disappointment (I know because I rostered him). He does not draw a great match-up in this one, as the Titans have shut down Chubb, Mack, and Fournette to start the year. If Atlanta can jump out to a huge lead he may see some grind-it-out carries, or they may choose to give those to Ito Smith (returning from a concussion) and protect his health. Freeman is strictly a contrarian play in this match-up.
Cleveland Browns (19.0/+7) at Baltimore Ravens (26.0/-7) [45]
The Browns offense has been a bit of a let down in fantasy circles so far. That doesn’t mean there aren’t useful pieces in weekly games like DFS. Odell Beckham ($7300) is priced down, presumably due to a date with Marlon Humphrey this week. However, Beckham is the type of play where you have to bet on talent over match-up when his price dips into the low $7k range. Humphrey has been targeted the least out of the three current starting CBs, but he is allowing 8.2 YPT and is not a complete blanket, yet. If Cleveland can find ways to get Odell away from Humphrey a handful of times, it will improve his chances at having a big day – especially if they can get him matched up on burn victim Anthony Averett who has allowed 269 yards and 2 TDs on 24 balls thrown his way this year. Nick Chubb ($6400) also draws a tough match-up against Baltimore’s front 7, but his 99% snap share last week cannot be ignored. His efficiency metrics don’t put him at the top of any fields, but we saw how Kansas City was able to get their RBs going last week. Part of that was the threat of Mahomes taking them deep, but Baker has a deep ball, too. Beckham and Chubb are in tough spots this week, but that means we should see low ownership and make them decent options as pivots. Baker Mayfield ($5800) hasn’t been the same guy he was to end the year last year, but he could end up having to throw quite a bit here is Baltimore’s offense puts up the points they have so far to start the year. Mayfield falls into the same category as Chubb and Odell, he’s a contrarian pivot play in a tough match-up. He’s not seeing the field well right now, and the Ravens defense could eat his lunch this week. Fun fact: Brandon Carr (cornerback for the Ravens) was the defender on OBJ’s famous one-handed catch.
The Ravens said they got sick of hearing all the Browns hype this off-season and are going to look to stomp all over them this week. Lamar Jackson ($6900) is a big play waiting to happen every time he touches the ball. He can take off or throw deep and the defense has to honor both aspects of his game. The Browns defense was without their top 2 CBs last week, and neither practiced this week and as of early Sunday morning are doubtful to play. If they’re out, it’s going to be a field day for Greg Roman dialing up deep passes in this one. The Browns had a hard time containing “emerging stud” Marcus Mariota in week 1, allowing him to throw 3 TD passes against them. Jackson is second in our Deep Passing metric for Distance Per Attempt with 11.6. Fitzmagic is only 0.1 yards ahead for first, and that’s because his team was playing form desperation levels each week. Jackson is also throwing the ball at over 15 Air Yards per pass at the highest rate in the NFL, per JJ Zachariason’s tweet here. Jackson is doing this naturally within the offense and besides Mahomes is the highest upside QB on any slate. Jackson is going to be a bit chalky for those willing to pay up at QB.
Jackson’s top target and deep play man is Marquise Brown ($5800) who only put up 6.9 DK points in a chalk spot last week. His price is still low, and if either or both of those Cleveland corners miss the game, he’s destined for another chalk week here. None of the other WRs have stepped up yet, so he’s one of the guys to use when stacking the Ravens. Another option is Mark Andrews ($5000) who started the year on fire but played hurt last week and tapered off. He didn’t practice on Wednesday, so if his availability looks questionable, we may need to avoid him. Mark Ingram ($6600) has seen his usage increase each week since the rout in Miami where he was not needed as much. Ingram is 1st in fantasy points per opportunity (for RBs with at least 10 opportunities), just above Austin Ekeler, and those two are crushing the rest of the field in this category. Difference between Ingram and Ekeler is Ingram is doing this with the less valuable touch (carries) while Austin has 13 more receptions than Mark. The pricing on Ingram should make him chalky, as will the match-up. Henry (same lack of targets as Ingram) and Lev Bell each went over 20 DK points against the Browns defense, who somehow managed to stymie the Rams running game last week. I’m all for firing up any possible combination of Ravens stacks in this one. The Browns offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders right now and this is a home game for the Ravens in a bitter division rivalry. The Ravens DST ($3200) is a worthy investment this week. Added note about the Ravens offense, they are the only team with over 70 combined pass and rush attempts so far this year. Volume is king in fantasy football, so we always have to consider players from Baltimore each week.
New England Patriots (24.25/-7) at Buffalo Bills (17.25/+7) [41.5]
The two games played between these two teams last year resulted in 31 and 36 point totals. The first game was a field goal fest, and Josh Allen hadn’t become the starter yet. The second game the Bills doubled their point total with Josh Allen as the starter, but that only meant going from 6 to 12 points. Tom Brady ($6600) threw for 324 yards and no touchdowns in Buffalo last year, and then the Patriots decided to go run-heavy in the week 16 meeting in Foxborough. This could be a similarly low scoring affair, comparatively. Both teams play strong defense, like to run and are familiar with each other. Each team has run a good amount of plays so far to start the year, but I suspect that will slow down this week. The Bills are going to likely be fighting for a wild card spot down the road, making this an important home game for them to win. Buffalo does not show any vulnerabilities on the match-up chart, which means we’re only going to be guessing when it comes to how the Pats decide to attack them. The Pats just lost a key piece of their offense with Devlin going to IR. That means they will have to develop new schemes going forward.
Brady seems to be nursing a calf injury and was limited in Wednesday’s practice. Whether that affects him or not will be seen. Josh Gordon ($5900) has lined up on the left side of the offense the most this year, which should put him across from Levi Wallace most of the game. Wallace has been the CB most picked on by opposing defenses, so this could be a Gordon week. Julian Edelman ($6500) tends to see upwards of 10 targets in competitive games, and we should expect this game to be that, allowing Edelman to receive his typical workload. We have a “New Dad Narrative” with James White ($4900). I have yet to test this narrative in NFL, but it seemed to provide a boost to players in NHL DFS over the last couple of years. Either he’ll be rejuvenated after taking last week off and have a brilliant game, or he’ll be looking for the bench trying to get some much-needed sleep. At $4900, I’ll consider him this week. Of course, the Pats could surprise us all and ride Sony Michel ($5500) and Rex Burkhead ($4400) for a combined 31 carries and 155 yards (like they did in week 16 last year), with Sony gaining 118 of those yards on 18 carries. Cool Advanced Metric for the Patriots: Both Josh Gordon and Phillip Dorsett are inside the top 5 in yards of separation at target. Dorsett is only one of two players above 3 yards of separation.
The Bills seem to be easier to defend than the Patriots and their barrage of weapons. Josh Allen ($5600) either goes deep to John Brown ($5300) or peppers Cole Beasley ($4700) with short shots. Last week Dawson Knox ($2900) finished third in targets for the Bills and broke off a nasty 49-yard catch and run that could warrant more targets going forward. He’s not a stable commodity but is punt worthy if you need the salary. This may be the first week I don’t have a Josh Allen build, and it’ll probably be the week he goes bananas.
Kansas City Chiefs (30.5/-6.5) at Detroit Lions (24.0/+6.5) [54.5]
This game features the highest implied total of the week and will attract quite a bit of ownership from the field because of that. We can also see that both teams are in the upper tier of the league in actual pass and rush attempts which means we should be able to squeeze some juicy volume out of this one. Pat Mahomes ($7500) is expensive, but he still attracts a good amount of ownership each week. It’ll be interesting to see what Patricia dials up to try and slow him and the Chiefs “Air Reid” offense down. According to this chart, the Chiefs are way out in front of the NFL regarding passing on first down in neutral situations. How is this actionable? Well, it tells us they believe their best chance to move the ball is through the air, and Detroit has a strong defensive line on paper, although they are not looking so dominant to start the year. The secondary has some cracks to exploit, and Reid will find those.
Darius Slay checked out of last week’s game with a hamstring injury but was practicing to start the week. Teams generally avoid him when targeting their receivers, and he can be used to shadow a receiver, including trailing them into the slot. Sammy Watkins ($6700) has primarily lined up in the slot this year, and Slay is primarily an outside corner who will follow his man into the slot if he has to. There’s a good chance Watkins avoids Slay for most of this game and lines up against Justin Coleman, who has allowed 3 TDs already and has been the most targeted Lions cornerback so far. Watkins appears to be the top options for Chief WRs and makes a great stacking partner if you’re paying up for Mahomes. Demarcus Robinson ($5200) and Mecole Hardman ($5100) are the other two WRs, and it’s most likely that Slay doesn’t shadow anyone, so these two receivers will each get shots at running routes against Melvin, the worst of the Lions corners. That’s a 50/50 bet on which one will produce higher than the other and leads me to want to play Watkins only from the trio. Last week, Zach Ertz was zoned and bracketed by the Lions and he wasn’t able to do much statistically for the Eagles. It would make sense for the Lions to do something similar here, but could also cost them a defender downfield against the most aggressive passing attack in the league, so it probably won’t happen on the majority of plays. Travis Kelce ($7200) is always in play, but at the price, it may be fair to consider other options in case the Lions do scheme to take him away. The RB situation seems to be Shady McCoy ($5600) operating as the lead back (when healthy) with Darrel Williams ($4700) coming in as the change of pace guy. McCoy carries some appeal here.
[NOTE: Early Sunday morning reports say Slay is a GTD. Even if he does play, he won’t be 100%. This would also have an effect on the coverage scheme for Kelce, as they will not be able to rely on good coverage against the WRs to focus an extra player on Kelce.]
A lot of talk this week on Lions Twitter is about them getting their run game going. After seeing what Baltimore was able to do against the Chiefs, it’s no surprise they are looking for the run game to provide the spark. It also makes sense for them to try this approach to try and keep Mahomes and company off the field as much as possible. Kerryon Johnson ($5400) is priced low enough and there is enough chatter about the run game that he’s going to be pretty chalky this week. He should see a solid 3 quarters of expanded usage as long as the game is close. If the Lions have to revert to come back mode later in the game, they have a pretty dang good QB for it. Matthew Stafford ($5500) is tied with Mahomes for second on the list of most deep ball attempts, both being just one behind Lamar Jackson. Darrell Bevell has a re-invented offense this year and Stafford is chucking it all over the yard. He was brilliant against Arizona in week one but has since been in a declining trend that could keep ownership off of him. However, this is the type of game where we should see his attempts get back into the high-30’s again, possibly more if they get behind by multiple scores early in the game. He’s not a top option for the slate, but at cost, he’s worth considering as a pivot option if you need some salary.
[NOTE: Early Sunday morning reports say Matt Stafford will play, but will be in pain. They could try to force Kerryon into a heavy role for as long as possible to keep him from getting hit early.]
Linebacker Anthony Hitchens has looked pretty bad for the Chiefs in coverage this year and the Lions should look to exploit him with their TEs. T.J. Hockenson ($3300) took the league by storm in week 1 but has been quiet ever since. Don’t be surprised if he awakens again in this one The Ravens seemed to think the TE was the way to go as they targeted their TEs relentlessly for most of the game and it took until under 2 minutes to go in the 2nd quarter before a pass was completed to a WR (there were 4 incomplete passes to Brown before this – 3 of which were deep shots). Marvin Jones ($5400) operates as the deep man for Detroit and if Stafford (3rd in distance per attempt on deep balls) can connect with him early, it could help Jones produce another big day – and help keep the Chiefs honest against the run where Johnson has seen the 4th highest average for defenders in the box this year (7.2). Kenny Golladay ($5900) had a letdown game last week but should be in line for a better game here should this turn into a shootout. Golladay is averaging 9 targets per game, so he’s getting the volume we covet.
Carolina Panthers (21.75/+4) at Houston Texans (25.75/-4) [47.5]
2019 is the year of the back-up QB and Kyle Allen ($5200) balled the heck out last week. He was a top recruit coming out of high school so the talent is there with him and his supporting cast. Carolina runs a highly condensed offense that mainly targets the RB, 2 WRs and 1 TE. Taking a look at the Texans first three games, it appears teams want to target Jonathan Joseph outside and the linebackers inside. Running backs have seen 28 targets so far against this Texans defense, with the Saints and Chargers both targeting their RBs 11 times each. Christian McCaffrey ($8800) is in line with Kamara and Ekeler in total targets on the year and should be a big factor in this one both through the air and on the ground. He’s a high-end RB choice this week. In Kyle Allen’s only 2 full starts he has targeted his TE1 7 times each game. Greg Olsen ($4200) will be the other guy running routes at the Texan linebackers and could easily see another 7 targets here. If we want to pick on Joseph, then we want to use Curtis Samuel ($4600) who lines up on Joseph’s side more than D.J. Moore ($5600) does. Moore only has 2 more targets on the year than Samuel, so it would make sense to use the cheaper of the two in this match-up, especially after seeing Allen target Samuel 7 times to Moore’s 2 last week (small sample size indeed). The way Houston’s OL is playing and Watson’s tendency to hang onto the ball open up the opportunity for sacks, and possibly some interceptable passes if thrown while getting hit. That puts the Panthers DST ($2300) on my radar as a punt option this week.
The Texans offensive line has a tough match-up in this one. The Panthers defense has the highest pressure rate in the NFL and is second in the league for sacks with 12. Deshaun Watson ($6400) may not have time to find receivers downfield and may be forced to dink and dunk and/or take off and run for yardage. His top WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7700) gets the Bradberry Blanket this week. James Bradberry has been a shutdown corner this year and could be put in shadow coverage against Nuk, limiting his upside. On the other side of Bradberry is 2nd-year man Donte Jackson, who is managing a groin injury. Will Fuller ($4500) hasn’t done much this year but has the better match-up again this week. Fuller has 7 targets each of the last two games but is losing work to newcomer Kenny Stills ($4200) who is averaging a hefty 13.3 YPT out of the slot. His targets increased from 3 each of the first two weeks up to 6 last week. The Panthers allowed Chris Godwin to rack up 29.1 DK points from the slot in week 2, then allowed the combination of Fitzgerald and Kirk to combine for 30.5 points out of the slot this week. Stills may very well be the most valuable Texan WR for DFS purposes this week. The TEs for Houston popped out of nowhere last week, and we could see something similar here if Watson is trying to get the ball out quick. I’m not confident in rostering either one at this point, but if deciding to I’d take a shot with the athletic Jordan Akins ($3100) as a punt option, though I’d rather pay the extra $200 to get to Hockenson. The Panthers run defense is allowing 129 yards per game on the ground, so we could see more involvement from Carlos Hyde ($4300) and Duke Johnson ($4200) this week. Unfortunately, their usage pretty much cancels each other out and there are better plays to chase than this on the slate.
Oakland Raiders (19.5/+6.5) at Indianapolis Colts (26.0/-6.5) [45.5]
The Raiders have a highly condensed offense revolving around their to player at RB, WR, and TE. The QB is not worth rostering in DFS. Josh Jacobs ($5100) [FREE SQUARE] and Darren Waller ($5200) are who we need to primarily focus on for small-to-mid-level tournaments. You can add Tyrell Williams ($5700) and J.J. Nelson ($3600) to your pool in larger-field and MME stuff. The Colts do a good job of limited outside WRs and guys not named Julio or Keenan, so these guys are lower-floor/higher-risk options. Jacobs is someone that needs to be considered at that low of a price. The Colts limited Freeman’s points last week but got bested by Ekeler and Henry the two weeks before. Jon Gruden said this week he wants to get Jacobs the ball more, including targets in the passing game. This is great news since the Colts will be without their stud middle linebacker again, and they have been historically generous to RBs in the receiving game. They have also been very generous to TEs, just ask Austin Hooper. It would be a good idea to get one or the other in your builds this week.
The Colts have also been working with a concentrated core of producers. T.Y. Hilton ($6400)is listed as doubtful, so I’m not expecting him to play. With Hilton out, it’s natural to want to identify the likeliest “next man up”. Based on the target distribution other than Hilton, it looks like the ball will get spread around to a group of receivers rather than have one guy take the lead. The safest bet in this offense is Marlon Mack ($6100). Oakland’s run defense got run all over by Dalvin Cook last week and there’s no reason Mack can’t do the same unless they sell out to stop him. That becomes more likely since Hilton is out. Still, the Colts OL and scheme should allow for Mack to be efficient and produce some yards and probably a TD.
Los Angeles Chargers (29.5/-14.5) at Miami Dolphins (15.0/+14.5) [44.5]
We’ve got a theme going with highly concentrated offenses and the Chargers are checking that box, too. Keenan Allen ($7600) has the top “Hog Rate” at WR in our metrics and that looks to continue against a flailing Dolphins defense. Allen will be mega-chalk this week due to match-up and recency bias and injuries to the other two WRs that play the most, but match-up and opportunity align marvelously for him here. Per this tweet by Josh Hornsby, Miami is allowing the third-highest percentage of points to WRs that line up in the slot. Allen is set up nicely to eat this week. Since MG3 is back with the team we have at least one remaining week with Austin Ekeler ($8000) as the lead back. Ekeler is averaging 1.34 points per opportunity, which is 4th on our charts, and faces the Dolphins who have allowed the most DK points to RBs so far this year. With Justin Jackson getting ruled out Ekeler will also be mega-chalk this weekend, but hard not to like his situation. Dontrelle Inman ($3000) can get you minimum price exposure to the Chargers offense this week and is a solid punt option. He’ll be the number 2 or 3 WR for them in this game.
At some point, we have to expect the Dolphins will finally begin to put some TDs on the board this season. When they do, they will be a high leverage team to roster in DFS. Since the Chargers DST is going to be chalk, it’s the equivalent of rostering a few batters against the chalk starting pitcher on an MLB slate. West coast teams historically have had issues with traveling back east and playing an early game. The Dolphins have been kicked around for 3 weeks and need to muster up some pride and put one on somebody. Not saying they will win, but they may a couple of solid fantasy producers at very low ownership this week. Albert Wilson ($4000) will return from injury this week and looks like he could be a sneaky play at $4k. He’ll face off with Brandon King in the slot, who hasn’t been targeted often but has allowed a 78% catch rate, 119 yards, and one touchdown in the 9 times he has been tested. Casey Hayward has been a DNP for the first two practices of the week which would force Brandon Facyson into the top outside corner role. Teams have targeted him the most of the outside guys, and he’s allowing the most yards of the outside guys. Preston Williams ($3900) is the team’s leading receiver so far this year and would be a great punt option for the price. The other guy I’ll look at for Miami is Kenyan Drake ($4200). Drake’s snaps and snap share have increased each week and have made a significant jump in week 3 pushing him to a 64% snap share. He is a dynamic runner that can take it to the house if he finds an opening and has 15 targets on the year to stabilize some floor (which projects low but could rise).
Washington Redskins (22.75/+3) at New York Giants (25.75/-3) [48.5]
Here we have two really bad defenses against teams that have been forced to pass a lot to begin the year. Teams have figured out the Giants secondary is a disaster, and though the play-calling ratios have been fairly even between run and pass, the majority of the fantasy points are coming through the air. Don’t be afraid to stack this game in as many ways as possible. Terry McLaurin ($4500) will be a chalky play from the Skins side of the game based on the match-up and low price. Paul Richardson ($3700) makes for a nice pivot in case you want to shave some ownership off your builds, but it’s been the bigger, more physical WRs that have done the most damage to the Giants so far this year, which points us back to McLaurin. If McLaurin cannot go (he was limited Thursday with a hammy), then we have to look at Kelvin Harmon ($3000) as a free square opportunity. He’s 6’2″ and 215 pounds with a 71st percentile speed score, but a slow 40 time. He will be the second starter on the outside in a game that could be a shootout, so keep tabs. I have a list of all 32 team beats and writers you can monitor in the link. Case Keenum ($4900) is dirt cheap even though he is the 8th highest scoring QB on DraftKings. He’ll probably see heavy ownership this week due to the mispricing, but carries some in-game benching potential. Vernon Davis ($3400) is the 15th highest scoring TE on DK and is also viable. Alec Ogletree has been ruled out of the game which is a boost to Davis’s prospects.
A lot has changed with the Giants in the last week. They made a change at starting QB then lost their elite bell-cow RB. Without Barkley on the field, and after watching Daniel Jones ($5300) create 4 TDs against a solid Bucs defense on the road, you can bet he’s going to be one of the highest owned QBs on the slate. It should be noted Washington has slowed their divisional opponents down to start games, but eventually cracked and allowed an onslaught of points. This game will probably follow the same pattern. If looking for stack-mates for Jones there are two really good options, and both will likely be chalky do to the condensed nature of this offense constricting even more with the loss of Saquon. Evan Engram ($5700) leads all TEs in targets with 30 through 3 games. That type of volume is what we chase, and he has not yet been priced like a Kelce or Ertz even though he is the #1 scoring TE on DK. Engram will be the highest TE owned this week, more than likely. Sterling Shepard ($5800) should also see elevated ownership, but since he plays in a deeper position for roster requirements, he won’t reach Engram’s ownership percentage. There is nothing wrong with stacking these guys, but know you’ll need to find some off the radar guys to have a shot a million dollars if you do use any of these three in a stack. Wayne Gallman ($4600) is stepping into a great opportunity with Barkley out. Washington is allowing the 5th most rush yards per game this year, and the Giants could try to make him a thing this week to help the rookie QB not have to shoulder the full burden of deciding the game. His price is low enough to consider using him as a pivot for some salary relief in a few builds and his opportunity should pay it off.
Seattle Seahawks (27.0/-6) at Arizona Cardinals (21.0/+6) [48]
Can’t say we saw this coming until now, but Will Dissly ($3600) chalk week is upon us. If your competitors are not paying up for Engram, then they’re going to be paying down for Dissly. The reason we’d target Dissly is due to the ridiculous amount of points the Cardinals are hemorrhaging to the TE position this year. Week 1 they let Hock go for 28.1 DK points, the following week was Andrews for 28.2, then last week was Olsen for 25.5. Game theory says to fade Dissly and hope Arizona made this a point of emphasis this week and he gets shut down and you pass all those line ups. The pivot for Dissly is Hockenson at $3300 should you choose to venture down this path. Tyler Lockett ($6300) is also in a smash spot this week based on the 16.3 DK points per game Arizona has allowed to opposing slot receivers (5th in the NFL). Lockett is Russell Wilson’s ($6100) Doug Baldwin replacement, and most reliable WR (though Metcalf has been pretty reliable, too). Lockett ranks 12 in targets for WRs and 11th in DK points and is a great, yet chalky play on this slate. DK Metcalf ($4800) gives us an in-game/same team pivot option to get a piece of what should be a shootout type game at lower ownership. You’ll likely see plenty of Wilson/Lockett/Dissly stacks out there, but less with Metcalf and a Cardinals passing stack which game theory could lead us toward.
If we want to leverage ownership in this game, then we’ll want to get a piece of the Arizona side of it. Kyler Murray ($6000) leads the NFL in pass attempts (volume) but is only 12th in actual yards and 24th in yards per attempt. However, he is 10th in DK points for QBs. Kingsbury’s scheme is designed to get the ball out of his hands quickly and to WRs at or near the line of scrimmage (see charts below – frames 2-4). They are not calling many designed runs for him either, which could help the scheme if defenses thought he was a threat to run on them. Week 2 he attempted more deep shots than the other two weeks, so it’s a component of the offense, as long as his line can give him time. Seattle has a low pressure-rate per PFF which means Kyler may see some extra time, and Kingsbury may have made a few tweaks to adjust his offense coming into this game. Larry Fitzgerald ($5600) is the top stacking partner for Murray and then you can run that back with Metcalf or Lockett. Fitzgerald is second on the team in aDOT, so he’s the do-it-all guy Kyler is relying on the most. Trying to identify a sneaky punt play from this offense leads me to KeeSean Johnson ($3200) who leads the Cardinals in aDOT and no longer has Crabtree in his way and Damiere Byrd has been ruled out. If the Cards take anything away from how the Saints attacked the Seahawks, then David Johnson ($6800) could be in for a big day. Johnson ranks 13th in points per opportunity among RBs and is seeing the 4th highest RB opportunity by team volume. He’s definitely worth a look this week.
(Charts are from NFL.com Next Gen Stats)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20.0/+9.5) at Los Angeles Rams (29.5/-9.5) [49.5]
Jameis Winston ($5700) was able to take advantage of his match-up with the Giants secondary last week but will face the polar opposite with the Rams secondary here. I do not expect Winston to be able to overcome his inaccuracy and tendency to throw bad decision passes against a Wade Phillips defense. Conversely, I do not expect I’ll have any Bucs in my player pool this week. They are contrarian only plays, and I do not enter 150 lineups into the Milly-Maker trying to beat a quarter million other line-ups so there is no reason for me to consider them. If you’re considering roster the Bucs offense, then Mike Evans ($7100) is the guy, since Godwin is dealing with an injury and listed as questionable The Buccaneers DST ($2100) makes my punt list due to their ability to create pressure, which is something Goff struggles with, and they have a former employer narrative going with Suh. If they can keep the score down, get a couple of sack from Barrett and maybe turn the Rams over a couple of times then it’ll be well worth the punt.
The Bucs are playing very solid defense this year and don’t have many glaring weaknesses. Todd Gurley ($7000) is on a workload management plan according to this article. The plan seems to limit his touches early, then have him take the bulk of the second half touches. It’s fair to wonder if he can put a full game’s worth of production while being managed like this. It’s also fair to wonder if he’s going to be a major part of the game-plan. Malcolm Brown ($4400) is out touching Gurley (slightly) in red-zone touches, but they are even at 2 apiece for carries inside the 5. Gurley is a risky play, but I’m going to keep him in my pool for a pivot option – especially after seeing Devin White has been ruled out for this game. In the secondary Vernon Hargreaves is allowing the most yards and yards per snap among the Bucs corners. Hargreaves lines up predominantly on the right side of the field which is the same side Brandin Cooks ($6200) lines up the most of the Rams receives. Cooks is 8th in Air yards per Game in our advanced metrics which has me looking at him as my top play for Ram WRs in this one. The other guy to consider is Cooper Kupp ($6500) as he is Goff’s favorite target and leads the Rams WRs in targets. Robert Woods ($6100) hasn’t done anything yet this year and is hard to roster at this point, at least until he shows some life. The Rams DST ($3500) should get plenty of interception opportunities against Winston and should be able to shut the Bucs running game down forcing him into more throws and more bad decisions. They are a top option defense for the week.
Minnesota Vikings (18.0/+2) at Chicago Bears (20.0/-2) [38]
The Bears defense will present Dalvin Cook ($8300) and the Viking play-callers with their toughest challenge yet. The Bears have been known for their tough run defense for years and that has continued into this season as well. The Vikings have been a heavy run percentage team, so something has to give. The Vikes will continue to test the run, but if it’s not getting the results they’re used to seeing, we’ll want to identify the passing options for the Vikes that make sense to consider for our player pools. It’ll be interesting to see if anything changes with Chad Beebe going to IR (not that he was playing an important role anyway) and whether the Vikings try to spread the Bears out some. The reasoning is Thielen has been seeing some slot snaps again, which is where he could expose Buster Skrine in coverage. Adam Thielen ($6600) has been the most productive WR for Minnesota to date and will be the preferred WR for anyone rostering one from Minnesota this week. Arif Hansen wrote a nice article on how the Vikings can attack the Bears defense. Part of it involved getting the Bears corners and safeties to make bad switches on posts and corner routes. Stefon Diggs ($5500) was great on those routes last year, but with the change in the offensive scheme this year, he hasn’t seen the same success. He’s a dark-horse to be a game-breaker in this one should the Vikes have to take to the air. The base offense is 12 personnel (2WR/2TE/1RB) which puts both Kyle Rudolph ($3500) and Irv Smith ($2900) on the field together. Rudolph has been a ghost this year, but Smith has had a few nice plays to build on. If the Vikes decide to target the Bears linebackers in coverage, then they could find some success. If betting on this, it might be better to go punt route and roster Smith over Rudy.
The Bears will be without Taylor Gabriel in this one and have a starting guard and Trey Burton listed as questionable. If Burton misses the game, it will condense the primary fantasy options down to Allen Robinson ($5600) and Anthony Miller ($3700) at WR, and David Montgomery ($5300) and Tarik Cohen ($4600) at RB. Adam Sheehan ($3100) is the shot in the dark play at TE. Both teams are toward the bottom in actual run and pass attempts per game, so this could be a defensive struggle we can look to avoid, except for maybe one of the defensive units.
Jacksonville Jaguars (17.25/+3) at Denver Broncos (20.25/-3) [37.5]
At first look of this match-up, I would assume the majority of the field immediately has “fade” written all over it. However, there are still some solid plays in here we can work with. For Jacksonville, it starts with every-down-back Leonard Fournette ($6000) who is priced way below his role. Fournette is 15th in carries and 5th in targets for RBs and is the best player on his offense. His volume warrants a look at $6k, but so does his match-up. Denver is 11th in DK points allowed to RBs with 24.5. Given Fournette should see pretty much 100% of the RB points from this backfield putting him as a 20+ point candidate for the slate. Dede Westbrook ($5500) is the next most talented player for the Jags, but he seems destined for a match-up with Chris Harris who presents the toughest WR/CB match-up of the Jags WRs. D.J Chark ($5100) is 5th in our metrics for points per target, mainly due to catching 3 TDs versus 18 targets. If the Jags can get Chark matched up with Yiadom frequently in this one he could be in for a big day. Yiadom is allowing 1.9 points per target without giving up a TD yet, and he is the highest targeted Bronco corner. In theory, if Chark sees 9 targets (his high for the season) then he’s got potential for at least 17 points. Obviously, we’re looking for more than 17 points, but Yiadom would provide the match-up for more should Chark maintain this ridiculous TD/Target rate. Even if he doesn’t see Yiadom every snap he’s got upside going against Kareem Jackson who hasn’t practiced all week due to a hammy and is listed as questionable. Gardner Minshew ($5200) has captured a lot of people’s admiration and at his price would probably be chalk against a different opponent. he may still see some ownership but makes for a decent punt this week.
For Denver, I want to use their receivers since Ramsey isn’t going to play and Bouye hasn’t been great this year as the other outside man. Emmanuel Sanders ($4900) is darn cheap and leads WRs for targets in the red-zone and end-zone with 8 and 5 respectively. Courtland Sutton ($4600) is also cheap. Phillip Lindsay ($5200) and Royce Freeman ($4800) are still in a nearly equal split of touches, but Lindsay scored the TDs last week to boost his results. I don’t want to go too far down the rabbit hole rostering Broncos, so I’ll probably only have Manny in my pool for this week.
Final Thoughts
Here is a link to the match-up chart (referenced a few time throughout the article) and my player pool. That sheet will get updated as I start to whittle things down. Best of luck to you this week, and as always, thanks for reading!
