The 3M Open DFS Golf Picks
Make the most of the data, predictions, and insights from this article to help with your fantasy golf picks for the 3M Open, and check out our PGA Optimizer to make more informed player selections for your DFS DraftKings lineups. Best of luck this week!
The 3M Open
Preview for the 3M Open: This year marks the fourth year of the 3M Open in Blaine, Minnesota, so it’s pretty much the opposite situation of last week’s Open Championship as it began in 1860 and is the world’s oldest golf tournament. The record at this event so far is -21 which Matthew Wolff shot in 2019 at the inaugural edition to beat Collin Morikawa and Bryson DeChambeau by a stroke. Winners of the 3M Open over the last three years include Cameron Champ in 2021, Michael Thompson in 2020, and the aforementioned Matthew Wolff in 2019.
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Tournament purse: The prize money for this week’s event is $7.5M, the winner collects $1.35M and also earns himself 500 FedEx Cup points.
Course and key stats: TPC Twin Cities is 7,441 yards in length, is a par 71, and the greens are bentgrass. The winning score at this tournament over the last three years ranges from -15 to -21, so I think it’s safe to say we will see the winning score in this range again this week. Some key stats to focus on this week, in order, are strokes gained: around the green, driving accuracy percentage, strokes gained: putting, strokes gained: approach and strokes gained: total.
The field: We were spoiled last week at the Open Championship with a sublime field – this week looks completely different but there are still some decent players teeing it up including Hideki Matsuyama, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Davis Riley, and others. We again have a full 156-player field, and the top 65 players plus ties after round 2 on Friday will move forward to play round 3 on Saturday and round 4 on Sunday. On a scale ranging from A to D, I rank the field strength to be a D+.
Three questions that pertain to the 3M Open:
1. Which 10 players does my custom model like the most this week? I just put together a custom model by weighting the key stats above, and my top 10 golfers, in order, are Chez Reavie, J.T. Poston, Tony Finau, Austin Cook, and Brendon Todd, Adam Long, Mark Hubbard, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Svensson, and Sahith Theegala.
2. Which 10 players have been the best around greens over the last 24 rounds? The most significant key stat this week is strokes gained: around the green, the top 10 golfers recently are, in order, are Wyndham Clark, Chris Gotterup, Adam Hadwin, John Huh, Joseph Bramlett, Andrew Putnam, Sahith Theegala, Danny Willett, Jason Day, and Rickie Fowler.
3. Which 10 players have gained the most strokes total at this tournament? We have only experienced the 3M Open for 3 years now, but the best golfers to date in terms of strokes gained total are Adam Hadwin, Hideki Matsuyama, Brian Stuard, Chez Reavie, Bo Hoag, Adam Svensson, Sungjae Im, Cameron Tringale, Tony Finau, and Mark Hubbard.
DraftKings lineup construction strategy this week: With a large field and one that isn’t very strong from top to bottom, it seems like hybrid lineups may be the way to go this week, or stars and scrubs if you can find some good value picks in the $7K and $6K range. Look at projected ownership numbers on Wednesday, and as always, leave a few hundred dollars on the table for each of your large GPP lineups if you want to win a big prize outright.
All the best in your journey to win or at least be in the money in some contests this week – here are my 15 DFS golf picks which feature my top 3 players from each tier on DraftKings (DK) in no particular order, plus I include player salaries for DK, as well. I consistently provide recent and seasonal finishes for each of my picks, their performances at the event over the last 5 years, and add in some tasty pieces of information, also.
The $10K+ Range
Tony Finau (Salary: DraftKings – $10.5K) – The most expensive player in the field this week is Finau, so you know that the tournament isn’t a major by any means, but Tony is still respectable nonetheless. He had a 2nd, a T2, and a T4 over his last eight starts and three more top 30’s during that same span. He’s coming off a T28 at The Open Championship where he gained strokes across the board except for a 1.72 loss around the greens, the only concern is he may be a bit fatigued this week but is pretty much a given to finish top 30 and has the upside to win come Sunday. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T28, 2020 – T3, and 2019 – T23.
Hideki Matsuyama (Salary: DraftKings – $10.3K) – Matsuyama played a bit better than average last week at The Open Championship, but lost 4.21 strokes on the greens and only finished T68 as a result. He had a 4th at the U.S. Open three starts ago though, and had a T3 at the Byron Nelson six starts ago – both events he killed it on approach gaining 9+ strokes in each. He had a solid top 10 here three years ago, and should do the same this week if his approach play is strong and his putting is at least average. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T7.
Sungjae Im (Salary: DraftKings – $10.0K) – I would almost certainly have another player in my $10K range this week if there were more than three options, but sadly there are not. Im has fallen off the map over his last three starts with two missed cuts and he finished T81 last week in Scotland no thanks to losing 10.36 strokes putting. He should be confident in a weak field like this and did finish T15 here three years ago, so a top 20 would ordinarily be a foregone conclusion for him, but I have some doubts about him this week given his recent mediocre play. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T15.
The $9K Range
Adam Hadwin (Salary: DraftKings – $9.6K) – Hadwin has had a great deal of success on this track with two top 6’s in as many starts, and you got to like that he finished 7th at the U.S. Open two starts ago gaining 2.98 strokes ball-striking and 8.40 strokes with his short game. He missed the cut in his most recent start at the John Deere Classic, but he should be recharged and focused this week. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T6 and 2019 – T4.
Maverick McNealy (Salary: DraftKings – $9.3K) – We are starting to see McNealy turn his game around after a stretch of three missed cuts, a 75th, and a T32, with three straight top 16’s including a T9 last week at the Barracuda Championship where he gained 9.55 strokes total on the field. He played well here a year ago, and that should continue this week if his strong short game remains intact. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T16.
Davis Riley (Salary: DraftKings – $9.0K) – Riley has four top 9’s in his last eleven starts if you count the Zurich Classic, and had a 31st place finish at the U.S. Open two starts ago thanks to gaining 6.73 strokes on approach which is his bread and butter. He should do quite well here as a rookie this week as long as he doesn’t lose a ton of strokes putting as he did in his most recent start at the Travelers Championship – losing 7.98 and finishing T64. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $8K Range
Cameron Davis (Salary: DraftKings – $8.9K) – He’s certainly trending in the right direction with four top 8’s in his last eight starts including a 6th last week at the Barracuda Championship. He has two good finishes here over the last two years, and I can see him finishing around T12 as he did in 2020. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T28, 2020 – T12, and 2019 – Cut.
Nick Hardy (Salary: DraftKings – $8.0K) – He has six consecutive top 35’s if you count his and his partner’s 21st place finish at the Zurich Classic, and most notably during this stretch he earned a 14th at the U.S. Open gaining strokes across the board in a loaded field. Hardy’s strong throughout his bag and I can see him contending this week if he plays to his DNA. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Cameron Tringale (Salary: DraftKings – $8.8K) – I originally had Mark Hubbard here, but he has since withdrawn so I’m going to roll with Tringale here since he has a good track record at this event, he had a T6 at the Scottish Open two starts ago along with a 14th at the U.S. Open four starts ago. Adam Long is also a decent option in this range and Chez Reavie won last week’s Barracuda Championship and came in T11 here last year, so there are a bunch of golfers in play in this mid-tier. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T16, 2020 – T3, and 2019 – T42.
The $7K Range
Adam Svensson (Salary: DraftKings – $7.6K) – Svensson secured a 6th place finish in his most recent start two weeks ago at the Barbasol Championship thanks to gaining 9.80 strokes ball-striking. He, in fact, has four straight top 25’s on the back of sound ball-striking and putting. He had a top 15 here three years ago and is a more polished pro now, so he should be considered a threat to finish top 10 in his second straight start. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – T15.
Michael Gligic (Salary: DraftKings – $7.0K) – He has gone T10-T21-T31 over his last three starts and is doing it through ball-striking and putting which is good to see. He has done fine here over the last two years, and could top his T26 from 2019. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – T49 and 2020 – T26.
Joohyung Kim (Salary: DraftKings – $7.3K) – Kim didn’t really arrive on my radar until his 3rd at the Scottish Open two weeks ago – gaining strokes across all of the major stat categories including 5.33 ball-striking and 4.17 with the flat stick. He did fine last week at The Open Championship with a T47 and picked up a 23rd at the U.S. Open three starts ago – he’s a player to keep an eye on. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
The $6K Range
Justin Lower (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – I would try to keep your selections in the $7K range and higher this week, but I have three golfers worth looking at starting with Lower. He had a T8 two weeks ago at the Barbasol Championship and followed it up with a T16 last week at the Barracuda Championship, so he’s finding his groove on the PGA Tour. He has been decent this year if you exclude January, but does rely too much on his putting, so his upside is limited to a certain extent. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: None.
Austin Cook (Salary: DraftKings – $6.7K) – The thing that I like the most about Cook is that he has made five straight cut lines including a T13 at the Canadian Open and a T16 at the John Deere Classic. He should play on the weekend again this weekend, and has the upside to finish top 20 – not too shabby for a $6K player. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2021 – Cut, 2020 – T56, and 2019 – Cut.
Kelly Kraft (Salary: DraftKings – $6.9K) – He only has two missed cuts in his last eight starts and took home a T13 at the Canadian Open thanks to gaining strokes across the board. He’s good off the tee and with his short game, but his approach game is concerning and that limits his path greatly for top 10’s. 3M Open finishes over the last five years: 2019 – Cut.
