3M Open DraftKings DFS Picks and Course Preview
- Field: 156 Players
- Cut: Top 65 and ties
- First Tee: Thursday, July 25th
- Defending 3M Open Champion: Lee Hodges
TPC Twin Cities, located in Blaine, Minnesota, is a prestigious private golf course designed by Arnold Palmer with consultation from Tom Lehman. Opened in 2000, the course is plays to a par-71 layout stretching 7,431 yards. Renowned for its picturesque and demanding layout, featuring well-maintained bentgrass fairways and greens, strategically placed bunkers, and multiple water hazards, the course is designed to test golfers’ precision and strategy. Notable holes include the challenging par-4 6th, the scenic par-3 7th, the risk-reward par-5 9th, and the dramatic par-4 18th, which features a significant water carry on the approach.
In 2018, TPC Twin Cities underwent significant renovations to prepare for its role as a PGA Tour venue. These renovations aimed to enhance the challenge for professional players and improve the spectator experience. Key changes included the narrowing fairways on several holes, redesigning and repositioning bunkers, resurfacing greens for consistency, and expanding and enhancing water hazards. These comprehensive renovations successfully elevated TPC Twin Cities to meet PGA Tour standards, creating a challenging and visually appealing course for the 3M Open. The improvements not only create a unique test for the players but also a change in scenery for those who have been across the pond playing links golf the past two weeks. Below are some stats I’m looking into for this upcoming week in the Twin Cities!
Strokes Gained: Off The Tee (SG:OTT)
Distance and accuracy off the tee are the two stats that go into SG:OTT, which is why I love players who excel off the tee. Prior to Hodges’ win last year, distance off the tee seemed to be a major factor in winning. In 2019, Matthew Wolff and Bryson DeChambeau were the top two down the stretch, with Wolff eventually winning. Cameron Champ won the event in 2021, and Tony Finau won in 2022. All these golfers are known for hitting the ball far, and while the fairways were narrowed, they are still wide enough where players with poor accuracy can bomb it off the tee. I went with SG:OTT because outside of distance the other stat that everyone, except Champ, ranked well in was accuracy off the tee. This week, look for the long and straight drivers.
SG:APP from 175-225 yards
Another week, another time mentioning SG:APP as a key stat. Normally this stat looks at 25 yard buckets, but I widened it to 50 yards. Roughly a third of all approach shots come from this 50 yard bucket at the 3M. At a course that is relatively easy and has frequently seen winners around -20, an elite approach game is necessary. If you want to narrow it down even more, 19% of approach shots fall into the 175-200 yard bucket. Either way, finding golfers that can stick approach shots close on their 2nd shot is necessary.
Birdies or Better Gained
I already mentioned this above, but winners at this event have registered winning scores of -21, -19, -15, -17, -24. No matter how you look at it, you will need to score and score in bunches if you want to win this tournament. I lean towards BoB over bogey avoidance because I prefer an aggressive golfer over a golfer that relies on others making mistakes. My research this week is focusing on this becoming a birdie fest and my player picks will support that.
I am going to change up the format of my picks this week just because of how weak the field is. The pricing this week is also very weird with only 3 golfers above $10K, none being higher than $10.5K. Below are the 4 golfers I feel like offer the best value and skill for their price!
$9.0K – Keegan Bradley
I’m not looking at Bradley’s Open result from last week, I’m actually not taking the Open results into account for most people because of how variable things could be hole to hole. Shifting to this week, Bradley’s ability to drive the ball longer than average, and be relatively accurate while doing so, had him on my list to begin with. When I deep dove his approach stats I ended up liking him even more. Over the last year from 150-200 yards he is averaging 71.4% GIRs which sits at the 86th percentile on tour. His proximity to the pin on these shots sees him at the 94th percentile. He sits at 4th in the course fit rankings and third overall in the model I use. I will back Bradley at a major ownership discount.
$7.9K – Adam Hadwin
Another player with a lackluster performance at the Open that I am backing for a bounceback this week. He comes in at 16th on the course fit rankings and has finishes of 4th and T6th here. Hadwin sits inside the top-25 of this field in putting, fairways gained, good drives, and approach from 175-200 yards. I feel like people might forget he competed at the Memorial (3rd) and finished T27th at the Travelers, the last two signature events of the season. I have no reason to believe that Hadwin can’t put it all together and compete in a field as weak as this one.
$7.3K – Doug Ghim
As I prepared for this week, Ghim was a player I found myself strongly interested in. Normally when I have these feelings, it means a missed cut is imminent but I think its different with Ghim. He is second in this field for fairways gained and good drives, while also being top 30 in approach. His approach from 150-200 yards sees him sitting at an average of 70.8% GIRs and at the 78th percentile for proximity to the pin. HIs biggest deficiency is the putter but at a course that has relatively flat greens, I am hoping he can limit the damage. At only $7.3K and less that 5% predicted ownership, I will back Ghim this week.
$7.2K – JJ Spaun
This is a model based pick that I expect to be less than 2.5% owned. Looking at multiple different models, Spaun sits inside the top-20 in all of them. The model I use to make my weekly picks has him in the top-25 of fairways gained, good drives, and approach. Spaun has finished inside the top 30 in 3 of his last 4 starts including a T10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. If you can compete at the RMC, I fully expect you to be able to compete at the 3M. Just like Ghim, the one thing that scares me is his putting. If flatter green complexes can help him limit the damage caused by the putter, I expect Spaun to be inside the top-25 this week.
