Gabe Davis Fantasy 2024
Depending on your experiences with Gabe Davis in fantasy football over the course of the last few years, the sheer mention of his name may send shivers of inconsistency down your spine. One glance at Davis’ game logs would indicate that he has been a “boom or bust” option in the past, but he’s off to a much different environment in the Jacksonville Jaguars offense. Here are a few reasons Davis is poised for a career year, making him a steal at WR63 in standard PPR formats.
A Booming Upside
Say what you will about Davis’ extreme ebbs and flows throughout a 17-game season, but his touchdown production has been as consistent as anyone in the NFL. The 6-foot-2 receiver has logged at least six touchdowns in each of his first four seasons and rides into year five with 27 trips to the end zone. Are there really 62 other options at his position that have performed at that level?
Davis had five games of 20 or more PPR points last year but also logged four catchless performances. Looking at his profile in a more broad sense, the Central Florida alum has finished his seasons as WR57 in 2020, WR57 in 2021, WR36 in 2022 and WR41 in 2023.
The Monstrous, Pass-Heavy Offense
While many know Josh Allen for his cannon of an arm, last year’s Bills offense opted to throw the ball just 53% of the time, the 6th lowest rate in the league. Conversely, Jacksonville found themselves passing the ball north of 59% of the time, the ninth-highest percentage of any squad. More passes means more opportunity for all pass catchers involved.
With the Bills’ win projection (10.5) still well ahead of the Jaguars (8.5), you can argue that Lawrence will likely be working from behind more often. In turn, that would lead to a more pass-heavy attack than Allen for the second straight year.
Spreading the Wealth
When Press Taylor’s offense was firing on all cylinders in 2023, Trevor Lawrence was getting nearly all of his receivers involved. Some may have seen the trio of Christian Kirk, Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram as one full of too much target competition.
That is, until you realize that Ridley was WR18, Kirk (despite missing five games) finished as WR47 and Engram was the TE2 during a career-year. Five different players saw north of 60 targets per game, and even Zay Jones averaged 8.7 PPR points per contest in his nine games of action.
Both Ridley and Jones (33% of the team’s target share in 2023) have left the nest, leaving plenty of room for Davis to fill a significant role.
A ‘Next Man Up’ Mentality
The saying “the best ability is availability” applies to Davis’ situation in multiple facets. Let’s start with the streaky receiver himself; through four seasons, he has suited up for 65 games while missing just two. Even if his reception totals weren’t always up to par in a Bills offense that ran the ball more than most, Davis was out there and able to perform if given the chance. That can’t be said for others in the same tier, such as Tee Higgins (missed five games in 2023) and Cooper Kupp (missed five games).
Funny enough, Davis’ new teammate in Christian Kirk doesn’t have a history of durability either. Missing 17 games in six years, including five last season, the Jaguars don’t have the most reliable WR1 option when it comes to injuries. If Kirk were to fail to complete a full season, which has happened in four of his six years in the league, Davis would elevate another rung and compete with Engram as the top option.
Looking at his previous situation, the former Buffalo Bill did not have the luxury of being the “next man up” because Stefon Diggs never went down. Diggs played in all but one contest during Davis’ tenure there, ensuring that the deep threat would remain a secondary, lower volume option.
Whether it be the pass-oriented offense he’s stepping into, the larger role he’s in a position to take on, or the compatible quarterback who’s able to facilitate, Davis is an absolute steal at the WR63 spot. In best ball formats, his upside has always been a no brainer. If there was ever a chance for him to be more than just that type of asset, and for him to finally break the 1,000-yard barrier, the stars have aligned in 2024.
