Zero RB Targets
If you’ve been playing fantasy football for any significant amount of time, you’ve heard of the Zero RB strategy. The logic is simple. In Zero RB you choose to prioritize the other positions in the early rounds and wait on running backs. This allows you to build a wide receiving core full of elite producers and possibly end up with a top 3-5 tight end and quarterback. While there is a lot of debate about when you should take your first running back in this strategy, typically, if you wait until the fifth round or later, it would qualify as Zero RB. Running back is generally considered the most volatile position in fantasy, with injuries, committee backfields, and much of their success relying on touchdowns. Zero RB is an attempt to mitigate this risk by using early-round picks on position players who are likely to make it through an entire season and then target high-upside late-round running backs. Like with any strategy, there are pros and cons to Zero RB. While it does tend to give you an advantage at other positions, which makes up for any perceived deficit at running back in Week 1, it’s also risky because to have a chance at a fantasy championship, at least one of those late-round picks has to hit.
Also, while it helps you avoid an injury to an elite, early-round running back pick, if an injury occurs to your top-end quarterback or tight end you could be in a very precarious position that is difficult to overcome. But you can find success incorporating this strategy. Last season if you waited on running back and picked up De’Von Achane or Kyren Williams off the waiver wire you probably did very well. But things could also crash and burn. So consider all the pros and cons and if you decide to deploy a Zero RB game plan here are a few players to consider in later rounds.
Best Targets
David Montgomery, Lions (ADP RB19, 63rd Overall)
In 2023, Montgomery finished just outside the top 12 as RB13 in half-PPR leagues. This was the second season in a row that a Lions offense led by Ben Johnson has produced two RBs who finished as an RB2 or better. With the ascension of Jahymr Gibbs, some fantasy managers are fading Montgomery expecting him to take more of a backseat to his second-year teammate. But the Lions love Montgomery, and they have no incentive to change what was working last season. This means Montgomery should still serve as the early down and goal-line back and will score plenty of touchdowns and fantasy points. He is a great target for anyone passing on the position early in drafts.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (ADP RB20, 64th Overall)
Stevenson is another example of a player seeing his ADP get pushed down because of a lack of confidence in the offense surrounding him. But with an early sixth round ADP, Stevenson feels like an incredible value. Stevenson recently signed a four-year extension worth $36 million, with $17 million guaranteed, so the Patriots have plans to use him. Stevenson has a rare combination of size, balance, and pass-catching ability, and if he returns to his 2022 form after a disappointing 2023 season, he could return great value. He should have every opportunity to do so in an offense with multiple question marks at the WR and QB positions. Even with newly acquired Antonio Gibson taking some snaps, Stevenson could produce solid RB2 numbers, with RB1 upside if he receives the type of usage I expect.
Jonathan Brooks, Panthers (ADP RB28, 87th Overall)
Brooks feels like a great value with an ADP in the early eighth round. Right now, his ADP is being pushed down because of two factors. First, no one is enthusiastic about the Carolina Panthers after their 2023 season. Secondly, Brooks is coming off a torn ACL, and it remains unclear when he will be ready to go and how effective he will be once that happens. Most reports have Brooks trending in the right direction, and once he is healthy, he should take over this backfield and eventually dominate touches. Also, the Panthers’ new Head Coach, Dave Canales, helped Rachaad White have a huge 2023 season. With his running and catching ability, Brooks could become a major part of the offense and far exceed his ADP.
Tyjae Spears, Titans (ADP RB34, 102nd Overall)
All the Titans’ backfield focus this offseason has been on Tony Pollard, and while I do believe he could have a bounce-back season, I like his teammate, Tyjae Spears, even more based on ADP. Spears has electric playmaking ability and caught 52 passes as a rookie, and is going nearly an entire two rounds later than Pollard. The arrival of new Head Coach Brian Callahan, as well as moving on from Derrick Henry, should mean a more pass-happy approach, which could be good for both Spears and Pollard. This is likely to be a committee and it could be difficult to predict each week who the better Titans running back will be, but I don’t see them finishing that far apart from each other. I’ll take the player who is four years younger, familiar with the offense, with more upside, and going two rounds later in drafts every time.
Brian Robinson, Commanders (ADP RB34, 100th Overall)
Washington is another backfield that is hard to get much of a handle on. Drafters are uncertain what to do about Austin Ekeler. It’s unclear how much of a role he will have and what that role may be. The most sense would be to make him lightning to Brian Robinson’s thunder. This would give early down and goal-line work to Robinson and third down and pass-catching duties to Ekeler. But Robinson is also a capable pass catcher in his own right and should be involved after taking a huge step forward as a receiver last season. The biggest wild card may be rookie signal caller Jayden Daniels and his rushing ability, but while he may take some carries away from Robinson, the threat of Daniels taking off should also create wide-open lanes when Robinson does get the ball. Robinson is a great value and, after a 2023 season where Ekeler ran for a career-low 3.5 yards per carry, the preferred option in this backfield.
