Tony Pollard Going To the Titans
Free agency has been very active with many big names leaving for fresh starts or in search of what they believe to be their value. As I’ve mentioned in previous articles, players who had become staples of their respective teams, like Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, and Austin Ekeler will all be playing somewhere else in 2024. Then there are players who either broke out after years of struggles due to injury or inefficiency (think D’Andre Swift) or players who had high expectations in 2023 and failed to live up to them, only to see their current team ready to move on. That is where we find Tony Pollard. In a season that was supposed to highlight his elite athleticism and prove he could be a true workhorse, Pollard failed to live up to those lofty expectations and is now heading to Tennessee where he will get another chance to prove himself. This leaves Dallas very thin at RB. This is a problem I expect them to rectify either via free agency or in this year’s draft. It is also a new look for a Titans offense that had been built around the ground-and-pound power of Derrick Henry (now in Baltimore) and, at least for now, is opting for the dual-threat talents and speed of smaller players like Pollard and Tyjae Spears. Time will tell how this pays off, but for now, let’s look at the potential fallout.
Tony Pollard the Fantasy Asset
Coming into the fantasy season last year, Pollard was one of the most hyped-up running back targets in the early rounds of drafts. After a 2022 season that saw Pollard (in a complimentary role) outplay teammate Ezekiel Elliott to the tune of 1378 combined yards (at 5.2 yard-per-carry) and 12 total TDs, fantasy managers everywhere were excited when Elliott was let go and Pollard was set for lead back duties. However, after returning from an ankle injury, Pollard failed to impress in his first season as the starter. While he did still manage to rush over 1000 yards, his average went down to 4.0 yards-per-carry and he finished with fewer rushing yards and receiving yards than the previous season, even though he had nearly 60 more carries and 16 more receptions. He also managed just six total touchdowns. All of a sudden, a player who finished the 2022 season as a top 8 fantasy back in half and full PPR barely cracked the top-15 in 2023. A clear-cut RB1 had become a mid-range RB2 in just one season. There’s a chance he could reclaim his RB1 status, but in a new situation, with reasonable competition for touches, it’s hard at this point to see him as a top-12 running back.
Is Tony Pollard a Good Fit for the Titans
It’s a bit difficult to know exactly what type of role Pollard will have for the Titans and whether or not he will find success in that role. The Titans did sign him to a three-year, $24 million contract so he should be the presumed starter in this backfield. He also may come with a value that he didn’t have last season. In 2023, fantasy managers were drafting Pollard toward the end of the first round or the beginning of the second. He should be a lot cheaper than that in 2024, which means if things fall right for him, he could easily outperform the draft capital you invest in him. While Spears should see his share of work, I would expect this to be about a 60/40 split, with Pollard being the better end of the deal. Another thing that should help Pollard find some success is that under new head coach Brian Callahan, the offense promises to be very pass-friendly. Pollard is one of the better pass-catchers at the position and should see a significant amount of work in the passing game. Pollard caught a career-high 55 passes last season. The Titans are a team in need of some playmakers and while Pollard was less efficient last year, he has proven in the past that he is capable of making big plays from anywhere on the field. We won’t know for sure how big Pollard’s role will be until the Titans take the field in week one, but even if it’s closer to a 50/50 split we have seen Pollard finish as an RB1 in fantasy with that type of workload. This offense is clearly going to have a new identity, going from a true workhorse in Derrick Henry to more of an RBBC approach, but regardless, Pollard should still be a viable RB2 come draft time. Just don’t reach for him.
What This Means for Tyjae Spears
This is where it gets really interesting. At just 22 years old and after showing flashes of big-play ability in his own right, Spears was seen as a major breakout candidate in 2024, especially with it being all but certain that Derrick Henry would not be on the team. It’s clear that the breakout will have to wait, but what is less clear is just what role Callahan envisions for his talented, second-year, running back. With concerns regarding Spears’ knee, it makes sense not immediately to insert him into a three-down role. What makes less sense is signing a player like Pollard, who has a very similar skill set to Spears. Both players are gifted pass catchers out of the backfield. Neither back is the prototypical between-the-tackles type of running back. Pollard has a bit more size to him, but neither are big backs, and both have the type of breakaway speed that can create something out of nothing. The major, and perhaps the only real difference between them is age. Pollard will be 27 years old to begin the season and Spears will be 23 years old. It’s hard to say who will hurt who more, but with the contract Pollard is getting he should have a bigger slice of the pie and put a cap on Spears’ ceiling. Together they could be a very potent combination for the Titans but a very frustrating backfield to invest in for fantasy. But Spears may be the better value based on where the two running backs will go in drafts. They could easily finish the season within a few spots of each other, and if the older Pollard gets injured or Spears is simply more productive then you could end up with an RB2 at a much cheaper price than you would have to pay for Pollard. Right now, I view Pollard as a mid-range RB2 and Spears as an RB3 or flex with upside, but if they both stay healthy all season the best option might be to avoid the backfield altogether.
Conclusion
Anyone hoping for a Spears breakout in 2024 will likely have to wait a bit longer. If you have Spears in dynasty I would recommend holding onto him, but if there is someone out there who really believes in him (or who also has Pollard) and is willing to overpay I would at least consider moving him. Pollard and Spears are very similar players who could split the workload pretty evenly making both no more than an RB2. There’s a chance the Titans have their version of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs (both of whom were top 15 running backs last year) but the issue with that comparison is that neither Pollard nor Spears profile as a Montgomery type of runner. The Lions had a thunder-and lightning-backfield. I don’t know how successful it would’ve been if they had lightning and lightning. Both Pollard and Spears will be useful in fantasy this season, with Spears possibly providing the better value pick. If you would rather avoid this backfield, I understand but also know that if there is an injury to one of these players, both possess the upside to be a league-winner if they find themselves in a full-time role.
