Planting My Flag: T.J. Besler’s Must-Have Value Picks
Every year in fantasy football, there are players that managers overlook. Players who came into the season with question marks or uncertainty but were able to outperform their ADP to such a level that those managers who were lucky enough to have them rode them into the fantasy playoffs. While it’s impossible to know for sure who these players will be, those of us whose job it is to make these predictions can’t help but gravitate toward certain individuals. In this article, I will look at four players (one at each position) who I believe will outperform their ADP and be on the rosters of many fantasy football champions in 2024. Of course, whenever you make predictions like this, you are opening yourself up to looking foolish, and perhaps at the end of the season, I’ll look back and say, “What was I thinking?” But hindsight is always 20/20; for now, here are the players I’m planting my flag on.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals
Murray’s 2023 season was marred by injury. After missing half of the season while recovering from an ACL injury, Murray returned in Week 10 and finished the season with 1,799 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. He added another 244 yards and three touchdowns on the ground. Those numbers don’t exactly jump off the page but there is reason for optimism for Murray in 2024. First, there’s the addition of a rookie generational talent in WR Marvin Harrison Jr. Historically, it can take time for rookies to develop. But Harrison is an upgrade over what they had last season and should be a reliable target for Murray. There’s also the late-season emergence of Trey McBride. McBride’s 2023 season started slowly while he shared snaps with Zach Ertz. But after Ertz was placed on IR and later waived during the season, McBride began to break out and finished four of his final six weeks as a top-seven TE, including three top-five finishes (more on McBride later.) Plus, another year removed from his ACL injury should allow Murray to be more effective in the run game, giving him a nice weekly floor. Right now Kyler Murray has an ADP of #77 overall and QB#10. That’s after Anthony Richardson, Dak Prescott, and Jordan Love. I would much rather have Murray. He has top-five QB upside in 2024 and someone I am targeting in the late fifth or early sixth round while I load up on studs at other positions.
Players I’d Take Murray Over: Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Anthony Richardson, Joe Burrow
Joe Mixon, RB, Houston Texans
The Houston Texans’ newly acquired starting running back, Joe Mixon, has been a consistent fantasy contributor over the last several seasons. During that time, he’s averaged nearly 1,394 total yards and 12.3 touchdowns. It hasn’t always been exciting to watch, and drafting Mixon in your fantasy leagues rarely won you any praise, but he has been a solid RB2 with RB1 upside more often than not. Still, at 28 years old and with nearly 2,000 to his name, fantasy managers are apprehensive about selecting the Texans’ lead back. While it’s true that Mixon has never been an efficient runner, he has managed to produce top-12 fantasy seasons on volume. I don’t see that changing in 2024, as he takes lead duties on a potent, up-and-coming Houston offense. The Texans also added Stefon Diggs in free agency, and with C.J. Stroud entering his second season, the Texans could be more pass-heavy than they were in 2023. But that doesn’t mean they’ll abandon the run, and with little-to-no competition behind him, Mixon should get all the work he can handle on an offense that provides plenty of scoring opportunities. If you, like me, tend to adopt a zero or hero-RB strategy, Mixon is the perfect target once you get out of the first three rounds. He is valued as a mid-range RB2 but should, once again, flirt with top 10-12 numbers, and if he gets double-digit touchdowns, he could finish close to his top-five season from a year ago.
Players I’d Take Mixon Over: Rachaad White, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Kenneth Walker
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley is one of my favorite mid-to-late-round wide receiver targets in 2024. As of this writing, Ridley has an ADP of #78 overall as the WR#35, which puts him squarely in the middle of the seventh round in 12-team leagues. I love that value for a player who I predict to be the WR1 for his team. I get it, if you owned Ridley in 2023 it wasn’t always pretty. He had several games of 40 or fewer yards, an eight-game stretch with just one touchdown reception, and at times looked as if he may have lost a step. Still, in 2023, Ridley quietly surpassed 1,000 receiving yards and was one of just 10 players with at least 75 catches and eight touchdown receptions, and finished as the WR17. There is also some risk to drafting Ridley. We don’t know exactly what the offense will look like or if Ridley will even be the No. 1 target on the team. He will be working alongside future Hall of Fame WR DeAndre Hopkins and catching passes from Will Levis who has yet to prove himself at the next level. But Hopkins is 32 years old and there have been reports that Ridley and Levis are starting to build a nice connection with each other, which was put on display in the first two drives of their final preseason game against the Saints. In that matchup, Ridley caught two of three targets for 39 yards. So while there are pros and cons to Ridley, I tend to lean toward him experiencing a bounce-back season rather than being a dud. Ridley is a WR2 you can get for a low-end WR3 price. I expect him to outperform his ADP by a wide margin, which is why I am targeting him in every league.
Players I’d Take Ridley Over: Chris Godwin, Jayden Reed, Xavier Worthy, Keenan Allen
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
This one is two-fold. As I’ve mentioned, I’m a big believer in Kyler Murray (and the Arizona offense in general) having a huge bounce-back season. I also love the talent and opportunity McBride represents heading into the 2024 season. In 2023, after starting the season with just one game over 30 yards in his first nine contests, McBride broke out with a Week 10 performance of eight receptions for 131 yards. He finished the season with 81 catches (on 106 targets) for 825 yards and three touchdowns. The entire Arizona offense found it difficult to get in the end zone, but McBride was one of the few bright spots. Now in year three of his NFL career with Marvin Harrison Jr. as his only competition for targets McBride should see all his totals go up. With the star rookie taking time to develop McBride could be the No. 1 target on the team which is always a great situation for a tight end. McBride is a matchup nightmare who could be in line for double-digit touchdowns. Like Murray, McBride is a top-five option at his position. With an ADP of #49 overall and TE#4, he is being selected in the late fourth or early fifth round. I’m fine paying that price, especially for someone with the upside to finish as the overall TE1.
Players I’d Take McBride Over: Sam LaPorta, Dalton Kincaid, George Kittle, Kyle Pitts
