Bold NFL Predictions for Week 10
It was a pretty good week for my Week 9 bold predictions. I didn’t predict almost 500 yards and five touchdowns for C.J. Stroud, but I did predict a 300+ yard outing, so I’m taking the victory lap on that one. I also called Trey McBride’s fantasy dud performance against Cleveland. I predicted he would finish as TE-15 or worse for the week and, in PPR leagues, he came in at TE-20. So, he didn’t disappoint. Or, he did disappoint. I guess it depends on your point of view. Speaking of Cleveland, I predicted they would gain 200 rushing yards against the hapless Cardinals. Somehow, they only ran for 113 yards, even though they won the game 27-0. Jonathan Taylor did not finish as the overall RB-1, as I hoped, but Zach Moss almost did, so I had the right process and the right team, just the wrong player. But, I was just flat out wrong about Davante Adams. I had hoped the new coach and quarterback would target Adams a ton, but in the end, he finished with just 7.4 PPR points.
This week, the Chiefs, Dolphins, and Eagles are on bye, so there’s room for another quarterback to claim the top fantasy spot this week. And an RB1 makes his return in Detroit, but will he receive the same usage he got before his injury? These, along with a few more, are part of the storylines for my Week 10 bold predictions.
Saints Put the “Big Squeezy” on Hockenson
T. J. Hockenson has been one of the most reliable tight ends this year. He’s second in overall fantasy points and has scored double-digit fantasy points in eight games this year, best in the league at his position. He’s a “set it and forget it” player at a position lacking depth. Even with Josh Dobbs behind center last week, Hockenson still scored 13.9 fantasy points, proving he doesn’t need Kirk Cousins to be a fantasy stud. However, this week Dobbs and the Vikings offense will face a tougher test against the Saints. New Orleans has the 7th best passing defense and Dobbs, as impressive as he was last week with virtually no time to prepare, is 31st in True Passer Rating. I think he will struggle this week, which means Hockenson will, as well. While Dobbs did target Hockenson at a very high rate last week, one-third of those targets were uncatchable. Dobbs will see a lot more pressure from the Saints than he did from the Falcons, which will likely impact his accuracy. I still think Hockenson will get his fair share of targets, but I don’t think he will be able to convert them into many fantasy points. I believe he will be held to fewer than 10 fantasy points for only the second time this year.
Re-charged Montgomery Surges in LA
David Montgomery is set to return this week for the Detroit Lions. In his absence, rookie Jahmyr Gibbs has done an outstanding job in the lead role. Before Montgomery’s injury, he was getting 65% of Detroit’s rushing attempts and he dominated red zone touches by a 27-5 margin over Gibbs. He also had six rushing touchdowns compared to zero for Gibbs. I do think Gibbs has shown that he can carry the load, and I expect the Lions will give him a larger rushing share than he had before Montgomery went out. But Montgomery will still be the lead back, and I believe Detroit trusts him more near the goal line. The Lions are facing the Chargers, a team that allows 3.8 red zone scoring attempts per game, third worst in the league, so Detroit should have more red zone opportunities than usual. I believe they will go right back to Montgomery for those high-value touches, and, if early-season history is any indication, he will convert those touches into touchdowns. I’m looking for a big game from Montgomery in his return and believe he will find the end zone twice.
Commanders QB Has “Howell”-uva Game overall QB1
The Washington Commanders travel to Seattle to take on the Seahawks in Week 10. Seattle got spanked by the Ravens last week and will look to get back on track at home. They’re 6.5 point favorites, so Vegas thinks they will. I’m inclined to agree with that, but I do think this game could turn into a shootout. Both of these teams are generous to opposing quarterbacks, with Washington ranking 30th and Seattle 25th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. I expect both Geno Smith and Sam Howell to shine. Howell has been inconsistent this year, but he has had some nice games and sits at 6th overall in fantasy points among quarterbacks. With the game script, and the fact that the Commanders are already a pass-heavy team, I think there’s a good chance Howell has his best game of the year. In fact, I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he will finish the week as the overall QB-1.
Cowboys Star in 50 Shades of Blue
I think about the NY Giants last year and how everyone said they were overachieving. I think the same thing can be said this year. I know the Giants are only 2-7, but if you just look at their points for and against, it’s amazing they’ve won any games at all. They’re averaging 11.2 points per game while giving up 24.1 points per game. That means they’re losing by an average of 12.9 points, which is more points than they score per game! It’s kind of amazing that they’ve won any games.
I don’t think it’s bold to say the Giants will lose to the Cowboys this week. In Week 1, they lost 40-0 to them, and that was with Daniel Jones. The question is, how badly will they lose. Vegas has the line around 16-17 points in the Cowboys’ favor. Now, I wouldn’t bet that line because there’s no value in it, but I do believe Dallas will cover it. By far! The Cowboys are angry! Talk about a team that’s underperforming! With all that talent, they should have one or two more wins this year. But when they do win, they win big, which is what I think they will do this week. Very big! In fact, I think Dallas will put up 50 points in another blowout win against the Giants.
Buffalo Diggs Deep Against Denver
Buffalo reminds me of Dallas in that both teams are super-talented and have high expectations. But neither is quite living up to them. At 5-4, the Bills need a win to keep pace in the playoff hunt. They’re coming off a loss to Cincinnati, while Denver had a big win against Kansas City in their last game, so momentum is on the side of the Broncos. But something tells me there’s too much on the line for Buffalo to let this game slip away. It’s a game they should win, and I believe they will. I think they’ll do it mostly by throwing the ball. Denver is 32nd against the pass in DVOA, and I don’t think they will have an answer for Josh Allen or Stefon Diggs. I see a big day coming for both, and for Diggs, his first 150+ yards receiving game this year.
