Bold NFL Predictions
Welcome to another week of NFL bold predictions, where I attempt to predict the unpredictable. Making such predictions is not for the faint of heart. You have to be willing to take the heat when you’re wrong, which is a fair amount of the time. I once knew a writer who couldn’t take the pressure of making bold predictions, and he finally gave up and pursued a less challenging career. He’s now a brain surgeon, and he tells me he’s so much more relaxed now that he doesn’t have the stress of making predictions each week.
Last week was a mixed bag. I was right about Justin Fields being a top-three fantasy quarterback. He led the Bears to an upset victory over the Lions and scored 24.7 fantasy points along the way. I was close with Green Bay tight end Tucker Kraft. He didn’t get the 15 fantasy points I predicted, but he did lead the team in receiving yards and managed double-digit points in PPR scoring. And Alexander Mattison was having a nice game, gaining 66 yards on 10 rushes, before his day ended with an injury. Who knows if he would’ve scored those two rushing touchdowns I predicted?
I was off on CeeDee Lamb. I predicted he would put up 40 fantasy points against the Eagles. He got about half that, but I don’t think Cowboys fans are complaining. However, I was way off on Jordan Love. I thought he had a pretty good chance at leading the league in passing against the Giants, but he only threw for 218 in a shocking loss.
Well, you win some and you lose some, but it still beats being a brain surgeon, in my book. On to this week’s bold predictions.
Bungle in the Jungle
Fantasy owners who benefited from drafting Justin Jefferson were living large until a few weeks ago when he went on IR. Fortunately, he was back in an important game that would determine whether many fantasy teams would make the playoffs. Unfortunately, he exited that game early with another injury. Fortunately, the injury isn’t serious, and Jefferson will play this week. Unfortunately, Minnesota is experiencing a quarterback crisis and will travel to Cincinnati to face a motivated Bengals team.
Jefferson is perhaps the best wide receiver in the game, but it still matters who’s throwing him the ball. And in the first round of the fantasy playoffs, it does not inspire confidence to see Nick Mullens behind center. I have a bad feeling that Jefferson won’t be able to produce like fantasy owners anticipated when they drafted him early in the first round. You can’t bench him, obviously, because he’s Justin Jefferson. But don’t be surprised when he fails to score double-digit PPR fantasy points this week.
Gibbs Gallops Past Broncos
The Lions host the Broncos this week in an important game for both teams. Denver is fighting for a playoff spot, while the Lions are trying to prove they’re for real. It might surprise some people that I have the Broncos slightly ahead of the Lions in my power ratings, which proves that even my power ratings are bold. But, I do think Detroit will win with the home field advantage. Denver’s defense, although improved in recent weeks, gives up a lot of rushing yards: 144 per game, to be exact, which is the worst in the league. It’s even worse on the road, where they give up 162.3 yards. Lions running backs should have a field day! Jahmyr Gibbs should be the biggest benefactor of the Broncos’ generous defense. He had more carries than David Montgomery last week for only the second time this season. I think Detroit is going to rely on the rookie as their first option in the running game going forward. With the plus matchup and the majority of carries, I think Gibbs will top 100 rushing yards for the first time since Week 8 when he had 26 carries. Montgomery was out that game, so Gibbs might only see half that amount, but I think he’ll make the most of it and solidify his RB1 status going forward.
Kelce Shakes it Off
Sometimes, a bold prediction is better as a song;
Verse:
We’re not out of the woods yet
But this week, it’s time to reset
The Chiefs lost a heartbreaker last week
But now, Kelce’s ready to tweak
Remember when his catch got overturned
The Chiefs lost, but now he’s concerned
With making fantasy owners smile
And making sure that they don’t feel like they’ve been burned
He’ll run his routes, he’ll catch the ball
He’ll score two times, and that’s not all
An angry Kelce is so much fun
He’ll finish the week as TE-1
Chorus:
Cause, Kelce’s got bad blood
You know he used to have mad love
For the refs, but they messed up
Now Travie’s gonna rise up
Commander Get Stuck in the Matt-rix
Matthew Stafford has been crushing it lately, throwing 10 touchdowns and leading the Rams offense to 30+ points in three consecutive games. This week, he faces the porous Commanders defense who are allowing the most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Stafford has two great receivers in Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, and they should waltz their way against the Washington secondary. Stafford has been playing like it’s 2013, and he’s about to go old-school on the Commanders. I think he will have his best game of the season and be a top-three fantasy QB this week.
Cardinals Declare End Zone a Protected Sanctuary
One game this week is a mismatch involving a powerhouse team and a team with plenty of opportunities to improve. I mentioned earlier that I have my own NFL power ratings. I have the San Francisco 49ers as the top team in the league, and they’re traveling to Arizona to take on the Cardinals. The good news for the Cardinals is that they’re not last in my rating. They’re not far from last, but there are a few teams below them. And they’re playing at home, so they have home field advantage. Right now, Vegas has the 49ers as a -12.5 favorite. The public clearly agrees, as 88% of the bets are on the San Francisco side. I’m not here to tell you which side to bet, but I do think this could be a lopsided game.
Arizona is averaging 1.8 offensive touchdowns per game, 27th in the league. They’re one of only four teams that have more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns. The bad news for them is the 49ers have the best rushing defense in the league. To be fair, part of that is because they tend to get up early against opponents, forcing them to pass the ball. Teams facing San Francisco have the lowest rushing play percentage this year, so the Cardinals will likely have to throw the ball while trying to play catch up. That’s not an area where they excel, ranking 30th in passing yards. All of this doesn’t add up well for Arizona. I think they’re going to struggle to move the ball if they can’t establish the run and allow the 49ers to focus on defending the pass. This game could get ugly fast. I think San Francisco will dominate and not allow a single offensive touchdown from the Cardinals. Good luck to you Kyler Murray owners!
