Surprising Fantasy Stats
It’s hard to believe that there are only four weeks left of the NFL regular season. It does not seem that long ago that we were all preparing our fantasy drafts and looking forward to getting the season started and now it would be nice if it slowed down just a little. But here we are, week 15, the first week of the fantasy playoffs for most leagues, and whether you’re getting ready for a playoff matchup or are on the outside looking in you may find some of the statistics behind the statistics interesting. The truth is it’s easy to acknowledge on a surface level which players have been good for fantasy and which have not been, but knowing just how players have reached a certain level of success requires a deeper look at the numbers. In doing so you may be surprised what you find, as well as find pieces of information can could prove helpful in the coming weeks. With that in mind, here are 10 surprising fantasy stats heading into week 15.
Brock Purdy (QB)
*Fewest attempts per game of any top-25 QB
Brock Purdy has been a surprisingly good fantasy (and real-life) quarterback in 2023. Through 14 weeks, Purdy sits as the QB5 on the season and has the 49ers already in the playoffs. Purdy does have some elite talent at his disposal with wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, tight end George Kittle, and, of course, Christian McCaffrey all entering into the game plan every week. With that much talent around him and the rate at which he has been producing, it would be reasonable to assume he’s reaching that level of success through volume, but that’s not the case. Instead, it’s efficiency that has led to his success. Purdy is currently attempting fewer passes than any top-25 quarterback with just 27.6 attempts per game. Yet, he has 25 touchdowns on the season and has thrown for over 250 yards in nine of 13 games. Purdy should be able to continue his success against the Cardinals in week 15 making him a great QB to own for any manager going into the fantasy playoffs.
Dak Prescott (QB)
*Most passing TDs among QBs
Prior to the 2023 season, there was reason for optimism surrounding Dak Prescott. He is on a team filled with talent looking to prove that they are the cream of the crop of their division. Still, I’m not sure anyone would’ve predicted how well he would be playing at this point in the season. Heading into week 15 the Cowboys are in control of their destiny sitting atop the NFC East after beating the Philadelphia Eagles 33-13 in week 14. Prescott has thrown 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions (three of which came in one game) and has added two more touchdowns on the ground. Those 28 touchdowns are the most in the league, not something many people had on their 2023 NFL bingo card. Since week 5, Prescott has finished outside the top-3 at the position just twice. Prescott is playing his best football at the perfect time for both Cowboys fans and fantasy owners. His week 15 opponent, the Buffalo Bills, is not an easy matchup on paper, but with how Prescott is playing, he’s about as matchup-proof as they come. He may not reach the top-3 this week, but a top-5 finish is not out of the question.
Christian McCaffrey (RB)
*Over 300 more rushing yards than the next RB
I don’t think anyone would’ve been surprised to find that McCaffrey leads the league in certain categories. There is not another running back as valuable to the success of his team as McCaffrey is to the 49ers. McCaffrey has had 20+ touches in every game but four this season. As one of the true workhorse running backs we all knew he would be toward the top of the leaderboard. What perhaps could not have been predicted is that his 1177 rushing yards are over 300 yards more than the 2nd leading rusher in the league, Derrick Henry (841.) This is made even more impressive because McCaffrey does a lot of his damage in the passing game, so the fact that he’s leading the league in rushing as well arguably makes him the fantasy MVP. Obviously, you don’t need any advice when it comes to McCaffrey. He is an automatic set-it-and-forget RB1 every week and will likely be on the roster of many fantasy champions this year. When a player possesses the upside to score as many points as two or three players combined you just sit back and reap the rewards.
Breece Hall (RB)
*2nd most receiving yards among running backs
Through the first four weeks of the 2023 season, concern was mounting among those who drafted the second-year running back. Over that span, other than week one where he went for 127 yards (83 of which was on one play) he failed to score more than nine points in any game. A lot of this can be attributed to usage, failing to have more than 12 carries or two targets in any of his first four games. Then in week five against Denver, Hall got 22 carries and three targets, and while that is still his highest rushing total, he has become more and more involved in the passing game with at least five targets in all but two games from weeks 6-14. This has led to the second most receiving yards among running backs with 435 yards. This is just two yards behind, guess who? Yep. Christian McCaffrey. So Hall has been a very valuable fantasy asset since those first few down weeks, scoring at least 15 points in all but four games, landing him solidly in the RB2 conversation. His playoff schedule is not the best for opposing running backs, but as long as he’s healthy he needs to be in your lineup.
Alvin Kamara (RB)
*Most targets among running backs
It’s not surprising to me that Kamara leads all running backs with 74 targets on the season. Kamara has historically been targeted a lot and as one of the premier talents on the Saints, it makes sense to utilize him as much as possible. What is surprising is that he has done it while missing three complete games and only playing 50% of the snaps in another. Since returning from suspension in week four Kamara has received at least five targets in all but one game and seven or more targets in five games (including two games with 14 targets.) Kamara has also received double-digit carries in all but two games this season. So while the Saints have struggled at times this season, Kamara has been one of the most consistent players at the position as the RB8, scoring 14 fantasy points in all but two games this season. It might not always be pretty how he gets his production, but it’s a near guarantee that as long as he’s healthy and out there, production will come. With a week 15 matchup against the Giants, that success should continue.
Nico Collins (WR)
*Most yards per reception among top-12 WRs
Coming into the 2023 season, Nico Collins was not even being drafted as a top-50 wide receiver. Fast forward 14 weeks and Collins is producing as a low-end WR1 as the WR12 on the season, something no one expected. To be fair, no one expected anything that is happening with the Texans’ offense in 2023. With the exception of three games, the run game has been largely non-existent. Rookie wide receiver, Tank Dell has been a big play waiting to happen every single week. Sixth-year veteran Dalton Schultz is the TE12 even though he has missed the last 2 1/2 games. Then there’s rookie signal caller, C.J. Stroud. As the QB7 Stroud has been a revelation this season, playing at a historically elite level for a rookie. Unfortunately, he is currently in the concussion protocol, and if he is unable to go this week that will hurt all skill players. This brings us back to Collins. He has shown he can produce in a variety of ways, whether it’s due to volume, scoring touchdowns, or making splash plays. With good route running and speed, he is a difficult matchup for opposing defenses which has led to the most yards per reception among any top-12 WR, with 16.73. Whether Stroud is out there or not you probably have to start Collins if he’s healthy (Collins is dealing with a calf injury), but you may want to temper expectations if he is catching passes from Davis Mills. At least the matchup against the Titans is a favorable one which should provide some hope.
Mike Evans (WR)
*Highest drop rate among top-12 wide receivers
This one surprised me quite a bit. As one of the most talented contested catch wide receivers in the league, Evans having the highest drop rate among all the top-12 wide receivers is not something you would expect. Evans has seven drops on the season and a drop rate of 6.8%. Neither of those numbers sounds too bad, but it is still the worst number of drops and drop rate in the league. Still, it has not hurt his overall production. Evans is the WR7 on the season and part of the number of drops could be due to the number of targets he gets in this offense. Evans has received eight or more targets in nine of 13 games, including six games of 10 or more. He is the clear No. 1 target for Baker Mayfield and has obvious touchdown upside, scoring 10 times so far. From a fantasy perspective, Evans has been as consistent as they come with double-digit points in all but three games. As long as he continues to get peppered with targets (something I don’t see changing anytime soon) he will continue to produce WR1 numbers, regardless of the matchup. The one exception is his week 17 matchup when he faces New Orleans, a team that has a history of shutting him down. This is highly inconvenient since that is the fantasy championship week for most leagues. Chances are you don’t have a ton of better options on your roster but if you’re able to, I may get away from Evans in week 17.
Courtland Sutton (WR)
*Tied for second most receiving TDs among wide receivers
At the beginning of the season, most experts and analysts were predicting a breakout year for Jerry Jeudy, but while Jeudy has struggled to maintain top-60 relevance at the position, it’s been teammate Courtland Sutton who sits as the WR20. He hasn’t gotten there by being the clear No. 1 on the team either. Through 14 weeks, Sutton is averaging slightly less than one target per game more than Jeudy, and that is likely bolstered by two 11-target games. Instead, Sutton is in the top-20 at the position because of his nose for the end zone. While Jeudy has just one touchdown this season, Sutton has 10, which is tied for the second most receiving TDs in the league (with Mike Evans.) When the Broncos get close to the end zone, it is Sutton that quarterback Russell Wilson relies on more often than not. When you get down to the top-15 to the top-25 at any position, the difference maker is upside, whether it be the ability to break big plays or the ability to score. This type of upside can be the difference between a win or a loss. This week against Detroit I would start Sutton ahead of names like Garrett Wilson, Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, Tyler Lockett, and Drake London, and that’s not something I would’ve thought I’d ever say when the season started.
Trey McBride (TE)
*Tied for most contested receptions among tight ends
Anyone who knows how talented Trey McBride is knows it was just a matter of time before he got his chance in the Cardinals’ offense. That time came after veteran tight end Zach Ertz asked for and was granted a release from the team. Since then McBride has had at least seven targets in all but one game and even had one game of 14 targets. He has also had four top-7 finishes at the position in those six games. Beyond the usage though he’s also just good at football. He’s the type of player quarterbacks love because they know if they put the ball anywhere close to him more often than not he’ll come away with it, as evidenced by him being tied with T.J. Hockenson for the most contested receptions among tight ends. At 3-10, the Cardinals are likely already looking toward 2024, and McBride should be a big offensive part of that plan. Still, just because the team has very little to play for doesn’t mean McBride can’t help your fantasy team. He is currently the TE11 and gets to play two of his next three games against teams that are bottom-12 against tight ends. If you have him (unless he was picked up as a backup to a surefire stud) you play him.
Jake Ferguson (TE)
*Most red zone targets among tight ends
Early in the season, it was hard to know what to make of Ferguson’s usage in the red zone. For many teams, their offensive identity will look quite different in week 1 than it does in week 14, but now, with only four games left in the regular season it’s safe to say that Ferguson is no fluke. Ferguson is the TE8 from a fantasy standpoint and has been one of the most consistent tight ends over the last seven weeks with five top-10 finishes (including three inside the top-5.) Much of this is due to his ability to find the end zone. While Ferguson has the most red zone targets (22) of any tight end, it wasn’t until week 8 that he started scoring more regularly. Through the first seven weeks, Ferguson had just one touchdown. Over the last seven, he has four. His next two matchups are not easy but with the number of targets he receives and the number of those targets that happen in the red zone, Ferguson has as good of a chance as any other tight end to score a touchdown. Once you’re beyond players like Kelce, Hockenson, Kittle, and LaPorta, touchdown upside is what you’re looking for and Ferguson has more of that than most.
