Bold NFL Predictions
This is the week when most leagues have their Super Bowl and, hopefully, if you’re one of the millions of people reading this, you’re in the big game. I have two home leagues. It started as one league 12 years ago, but, seven years ago, it spilled over to two leagues with mostly the same owners, but different rules for variety. I’m in the championship game in both leagues and trying to become the first member to hold both league titles at the same time.
Whatever your fantasy team status this week, it’s always fun to talk about bold predictions. But it’s extra interesting this week with so much on the line for many of us. Before we get into this week’s predictions, let’s see how we did last week.
I predicted Jets quarterback, Trevor Siemian, would throw for 300 yards and two touchdowns. Even though New York put 30 points on the scoreboard, Siemian only threw for 217 yards and one TD. I also predicted 20 carries and 100 yards for Bijan Robinson, but he only carried the ball 12 times for 72 yards.
The Raiders offense was locked down, as I envisioned, and they only managed 205 yards on offense, despite beating the Chiefs. That was just five more yards than I predicted. Injuries to Jordan Addison and Hunter Henry nullified the last two predictions.
Since last week was the Gen Z edition of bold predictions, I’m taking credit for getting all my predictions correct. Even if it’s not technically true, at least I feel better about myself. Now on to this week’s picks. Good luck in your championship games!
Rush Hour 1, 2, and 3
Fantasy football has skewed towards taking wide receivers the last few years, but there are still a handful of running backs that we draft early. Among them are Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Josh Jacobs. If you have McCaffrey on your team, congratulations!. He’s been a stud all year and has paid off his ADP. However, Ekeler and Jacobs have not. Neither has produced at the level we would expect from an early round running back. In fact, I benched Ekeler last week and, of course, Jacobs was held out of his game with an injury. If you were lucky enough to advance to the finals with either one of those two on your roster, then I have some good news for you.
Obviously, we’re not worried about McCaffrey. On top of being the best RB in the game, he’s got a plush matchup this week against the Commanders. McCaffrey will feast! However, there’s reason for optimism for Ekeler and Jacbos, too. The Chargers play in Denver and the Raiders go to Indianapolis this week. The Broncos are 31st and the Colts are 30th in fantasy points allowed to running backs. Ekeler and Jacobs are in a great spot to have big games and I think they will. It’s crunch time and, in the week that matters most, I think the running backs will come through for fantasy teams. I’m predicting McCaffrey, Ekeler, and Jacobs will finish as the top three RBs in fantasy points this week.
Double Deebo Delight
First, let me say that I benefited from Deebo Samuel’s lack of production last week. I was in a close contest in my semi-final matchup and my opponent had Samuel. Fortunately for me, Samuel only scored 9.4 fantasy points and I was able to win a close game. I would hate to be facing Samuel again this week. (I just checked and I am facing him in my other league. Big Yikes!, as the kids would say.) Deebo has a great matchup against Washington, who is giving up the second most fantasy points to wide receivers. Their defense is also allowing 30 points a game, most in the league. There’s no way the 49ers don’t put 30+ points on the Commanders this week. Four touchdowns seems like a foregone conclusion. Of course, at least one of those will go to Christian McCaffrey, but the other three will be up for grabs and I like Samuel’s chances. He leads all receivers in fantasy points per target and he’s one of the best at gaining yards after the catch. He has six receiving touchdowns and five on the ground. I don’t think Washington can contain Samuel this week. I think he will score one receiving touchdown and one rushing touchdown and have at least 75 yards receiving. But for my team’s sake, I hope I’m wrong.
The Young and the Restless Defense
Last week, Bryce Young had his first 300 yard game in the NFL. The Panthers lost the game, but Young showed some signs of breaking out. He made some big-time throws in the 4th quarter when brining his team back and giving them a shot at the end. Young has been a disappointment for Carolina this season, but I haven’t given up hope on his future. I think he can still develop into a fine starting quarterback. I think that starts with him finishing the season strong.
This week, the Panthers play Jacksonville on the road. The Jaguars are 29th in passing yards allowed and they’re allowing a 99.9 passer rating at home. Young is set up to have a nice day once again. His offensive line has been giving him more protection lately and I think the extra time in the pocket will benefit him immensely this week. I think Young will have his second straight game with 300 passing yards and two touchdowns.
Pittsy Party
Sometimes I lie awake at night and wonder what Kyle Pitts could be on a different team. Would he put up Kelce-type numbers (pre-Swift)? Could he break Gronk’s single-season touchdown record? He has so much potential with his skill set, but it’s not being realized in Atlanta’s offense. Unfortunately, unless the Falcons can sign an elite quarterback, or drastically change their offensive scheme, Pitts is likely stuck in Atlanta for a couple more years.
The Falcons still have a shot at making the playoffs and they have a winnable game this week at Chicago. They will need to take advantage of the Bears’ weaknesses, however, and that means getting the ball to Pitts. Chicago has been weak all season in defending tight ends, especially in the slot, where Pitts lines up 45% of the time. This is a golden opportunity for Atlanta to feed Pitts. If he has the opportunity, he will produce. This game is too important for the Falcons to rely on Pitts, so I think they will feature him heavily. I see Pitts having a big game and finding the end zone twice this week.
Browninghead Stadium?
We seem to be witnessing a full-blown meltdown in Kansas City. The Chiefs have lost three of their last four games, while the Bengals won three in a row before last week. KC is pretty much a lock to win the AFC West, but Cincinnati is fighting for a Wild Card berth. Motivation could have a big effect on this game. Aside from that, Kansas City just hasn’t been playing well lately, especially at home. Every week, I think we all expect things to go back to normal in Chiefs Kingdom, but what if it doesn’t? What if this is the beginning of the end? I’m not saying it is, but I do think KC could stumble a bit more before they get back on their feet. I think we’re going to see another misstep by Kansas City this week. I’m looking for the Bengals to go into Arrowhead and beat them for the fourth time in their last five matchups.
