Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em Week 16
It’s difficult to believe that for most leagues there are only two weeks left of the fantasy football season. This season has gone by fast and has been one of the most unpredictable and frustrating seasons in recent memory. Injuries have turned teams that seemed like contenders into afterthoughts, and the injuries and surprises kept piling up in week 15. Trevor Lawrence (although he did not miss any game time) is in the concussion protocol. Ja’Marr Chase suffered a sprained AC joint in his shoulder and is considered day-to-day. Green Bay Packers rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed suffered a toe injury in the first half of his game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and fellow rookie Keaton Mitchell is likely out for the season after being carted off the field due to a knee injury. On top of that the Browns came back in the fourth quarter against the Bears in a game that the Bears appeared to have in the bag, the Bills made Dallas look like a high school team, and Drew Lock (yes, Drew Lock) and the Seahawks shocked the world when they beat the Philadelphia Eagles late Monday Night. If the rest of the season is any indication, week 16 will be hard to predict, but that doesn’t stop us from trying. Below are 12 names who I believe will either score higher or lower than their projections, and who could either help or hurt you in the playoffs. Good luck.
Week 16 Starts
*Start Stat Percentage, Via Sleeper
Justin Fields (QB)
Chicago Bears vs. ARI (64% Start)
Justin Fields did not have the kind of day on Sunday that his fantasy managers were hoping for, failing to surpass 12 fantasy points. To add insult to injury the Bears were unable to hold on for the win, as Joe Flacco led an impressive come-from-behind victory. Still, the Browns are a top-5 defense against opposing quarterbacks, and even though Fields does add extra value with his rushing ability, perhaps we shouldn’t have expected too much from him on Sunday. The weather also didn’t help. Sunday’s game in Cleveland was windy and rainy, forcing Fields to wear gloves and creating less than favorable conditions for the passing game. Week 16 should provide a get-right spot for Fields and the entire Bears offense. The Cardinals allow the seventh most fantasy points to quarterbacks and coming off a tough loss the Bears will be looking to take it out on someone. Fields should be able to find open receivers most of the afternoon and should have a much better chance of finishing in the top-5 at the position this week.
Baker Mayfield (QB)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. JAX (21% Start)
After what Mayfield has done this season, he has to be in consideration for Comeback Player of the Year. Not only has he played much better than most people expected, but he also has this Buccaneers team sitting atop the NFC South at 7-7. Mayfield has had an up-and-down career, to put it mildly, but he seems to have found a system that maximizes his strengths while minimizing his weaknesses. He does have eight interceptions on the season, but he also has 24 touchdowns, and over the last two games has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions, finishing as the QB12 and QB2. With weapons like Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and the surprising emergence of Rachaad White as a receiving threat, Mayfield has been able to lead the Buccaneers to some surprising victories. Now he gets to face a Jaguars defense that gives up the third most fantasy points to the position, putting him in a great spot to continue this success. He’s not necessarily an automatic start if you have a top-tier guy, but otherwise, I’d get him in your lineup, because he could be a top-8 QB the rest of the way.
Isaiah Pacheco (RB)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. LV (19% Start)
This one feels like a bit of a cheat, because there’s a chance his low starting percentage is due to him being out in week 15, but still with him coming off an injury people may be hesitant to re-insert him into their lineups. Don’t be. Pacheco is currently the RB18 on the year and in his last two games he was the RB4 and RB8 so he was trending in the right direction. Not only has he been good with the touches he’s been getting, but he’s also getting a ton of touches with 20+ opportunities in his last three games. Any running back that has a true workhorse role is worthy of a spot in your starting lineup. When that player is on the Chiefs (even with them not looking like the Chiefs much this year) he’s a no-brainer. Every report indicates that Pacheco should be good to go this week against a Raiders defense that is bottom-10 against running backs. Unless there is some sort of setback or in-game re-aggravation of the shoulder injury that sidelined him, I would expect Pacheco to see his typical workload. In this matchup, that could mean 20+ fantasy points and a top-5 RB finish.
James Conner (RB)
Arizona Cardinals vs. CHI (46% Start)
In real life, the Bears are one of the best defenses against the run, but from a fantasy perspective, they are giving up the 11th most fantasy points per game to the position. James Conner hasn’t been especially efficient or even that good this year, but he is coming off a game against a stout 49ers defense where he averaged over six -yards per carry en route to 86 yards and a touchdown. This was good enough to put him in the top-12 at the position. He did only play 49% of the snaps in that game, but that was likely due to the lopsided nature of the game and the Cardinals playing from behind most of the afternoon. Sunday’s contest against the Bears should be much closer, leading to more opportunities for Conner. The days of Conner putting up consistent RB1 numbers are probably behind him, but in a favorable matchup against a team that the Cardinals should be able to keep pace with he is a solid RB2 with some touchdown upside. If you’ve been relying on him up to this point, this week is not the week to get away from him.
Rashee Rice (WR)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. LV (63% Start)
Another player who has been trending in the right direction since coming out of their bye week is rookie wide receiver Rashee Rice. In his last five games, Rice has nine or more targets in all but one of them and has three top-12 finishes at the position including a week 12 contest against the Raiders that saw him finish as the WR3 on the week. You could make the argument that Rice is the best fantasy pass-catching option the Kansas City Chiefs have right now. That’s not something anyone would’ve predicted for a team that includes Travis Kelce. But the numbers don’t lie. Over the last four games, Rice has 32 receptions and three scores, while Kelce has 21 receptions and zero scores. The Chiefs have clearly chosen to make him a focal point of this passing attack. Against a Raiders defense that allows nearly 32 fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Rice should be able to produce as long as he continues to be so heavily involved. I’m not sure we can say (yet) that he’s matchup-proof, but he’s getting there and should be a low-end WR1/high-end WR2 the rest of the way.
Jordan Addison (WR)
Minnesota Vikings vs. DET (41% Start)
After finishing as the WR1 in week 15 in half-PPR formats I’m a bit surprised that Addison’s starting percentage isn’t higher. There is some risk with Addison. Elite talents Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson are still on the team and the man leading the charge is QB Nick Mullens, but while opposing defenses have concentrated on shutting Jefferson and Hockenson down, it has been Addison whom Mullens has been looking toward. The passing volume is a bit concerning. Gone are the days of Kirk Cousins and his 40+ pass attempts per game. It looks like just north of 30 attempts is going to be the norm, but that should be enough to allow Addison to produce as a low-end WR2 with upside. Also, Addison’s week 10 opponent, the Lions, is allowing the 10th most fantasy points to wide receivers this year and with how Goff and the Lions looked in week 15 the Vikings could be down early in this one, forcing them to abandon any hope of running the ball and calling on Mullens to air it out. This could lead to more turn-overs but it should also lead to more opportunities for the pass-catchers, including Addison.
Hunter Henry (TE)
New England Patriots vs. DEN (5% Start)
Over the last two weeks, Hunter Henry has been a top-3 tight end and easily the most reliable option in the Patriots’ passing game. In that span, Henry has 10 receptions for 106 yards and three scores. While touchdowns can’t be relied on there are fewer than a handful of tight -ends that produce on volume alone and once you’re past those names, players with touchdown upside become very important. Right now, Henry may have more touchdown upside than any tight end in his same tier. Don’t get me wrong, the Patriots are not a good team, and relying on any of their skill position players isn’t for the faint of heart. Other than running back Ezekiel Elliot (or Rhamondre Stevenson when healthy) Henry is the only other player on this team I’d feel confident putting in my lineup. But after two weeks like the ones Henry has had it’s hard to call what he is doing a fluke, and in week 16 he faces a Denver team that is dead last against tight ends. While Bailey Zappe isn’t the long-term answer at quarterback for the Patriots, the switch does seem to be benefiting Henry. Henry is a TE1 the rest of the way with top-5 touchdown upside.
Week 16 Sits
Jordan Love (QB)
Green Bay Packers vs. CAR (44% Start)
I considered putting Brock Purdy here, but with the season he’s having it’s hard to recommend getting away from him even in a tough matchup, so I’m going with Jordan Love. Chances are if you’re considering starting Love this week then you’ve had injuries at the QB position and may have no other choice but to continue relying on Love. But if you can, I would pivot away from him this week. Love has had a mostly solid 2023 season and has probably done enough to retain quarterback duties for the Packers in 2024, but his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not a favorable one. Carolina is the No. 1 defense against opposing signal callers making it hard to trust a young quarterback in his first full season as the starter on a team that has been extremely inconsistent at best. Add to that all the injuries in the receiving core and it could be a recipe for disaster. There is still no word on whether or not Christian Watson will be able to return from his hamstring injury and rookie Jayden Reed could be sidelined with a toe injury. This is not ideal in an already difficult matchup. Love could find it hard to get anything going this week making him a sit for me.
Jerome Ford (RB)
Cleveland Browns vs. HOU (51% Start)
This past Sunday, The Cleveland Browns’ rushing attack produced just 29 yards on the ground against the Chicago Bears. This included eight carries for 20 yards from Jerome Ford. This was a tough thing to watch if you are a Ford owner and were depending on him heading into the fantasy playoffs. If this was simply a one-game outlier we may be able to ignore it, but it’s not. Since Joe Flacco took over quarterback duties for the Cleveland Browns, Ford has received double-digit carries just once and has failed to crack the top-12 at the position. No one expected the Browns to rely on Flacco’s arm so much but he is throwing it over 40 times a game. Ford has become more involved in the passing game, but that involvement has not led to fantasy production. Now the Browns face a Houston Texans defense who are allowing just 93.5 rushing yards per game, sixth best in the league. Plus, Ford is splitting time with teammate Kareem Hunt. That combined with the matchup makes me want to go another direction this week.
Breece Hall (RB)
New York Jets vs. WAS (84% Start)
Breece Hall is still the RB13 on the season, but since coming out of his week 7 bye, Hall has scored single-digit fantasy points in five of eight games and, in week 15 the fantasy floor appeared to completely fall out from underneath him. In a blowout loss to the Dolphins, Hall managed just 18 total yards on seven touches, and 2.3 half-PPR points. Game flow may have been largely to blame, but the Jets offense looks lost, and even in a more favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders I don’t anticipate it getting much better. There is some reporting that QB Aaron Rodgers could be medically cleared to play in Week 16, but even if that were the case, would the Jets really risk it, having just been eliminated from playoff contention? That seems almost as risky as betting your fantasy playoff future on a member of this Jets offense. Because of injuries, you may have to put Hall into your lineup but if you have other, safer plays I’d go with them this week. As the Jets offense stands right now, Hall’s floor is incredibly low and while his talent provides a nice ceiling, the offense doesn’t allow him to reach that potential.
DeAndre Hopkins (WR)
Tennessee Titans vs. SEA (77% Start)
As much as I love football, some teams are very painful to watch at times, and the passing game of the Tennessee Titans is no exception. This is especially true if you find yourself in the unfortunate position of having to rely on it for fantasy success. The one thing we can say with absolute certainty is that DeAndre Hopkins has done enough this year to prove that, even at 31 years of age, he is still a very capable player in this league, and his healthy target share has managed to keep him relevant for most of the season. Still, his two catches for 21 yards on Sunday marks the third time this season he has failed to top the 30-yard mark. Plus, QB Will Levis is dealing with a high-ankle sprain and could miss some time meaning the Titans would be forced to turn back to Ryan Tannehill. That seems like it should be an upgrade but Hopkins has actually had better production this season with Levis under center than with Tannehill leading this team. Seattle can be thrown on, but they could find more success shutting this passing game down if Levis is unable to go. Hopkins is the type of player that is difficult to sit but if you can, I’d do it.
George Kittle (TE)
San Francisco 49ers vs. BAL (94% Start)
I know, I know. It is nearly impossible to sit Kittle in the fantasy playoffs, and I am not recommending doing so if you don’t have another reliable tight end. But if I had a player like David Njoku or Hunter Henry, I may take a chance on them this week over Kittle, but I understand if that’s too much to ask. Still, there’s a method to my madness. In three of his last four games, Kittle has scored single-digit fantasy points and has received more than five targets just once over that same span. The truth is with powerhouses Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey (and even Brandon Aiyuk to a lesser extent) soaking up targets in recent weeks, there isn’t much left for anyone else, especially in a low-volume passing game. Kittle is the TE4 on the season and has two top-10 finishes in his last four games, but in the other two, he finished outside the top-20. That kind of inconsistency is the type of thing that could be the difference between a win or a loss. His matchup is also brutal. The Ravens are an elite defense across the board, and this includes against opposing tight ends, giving up the fourth fewest points to the position. If you have no other choice but to rely on Kittle I understand, but I would keep expectations low this week.
