5 Bold NFL Predictions for Week 5
NFL Predictions for Week 5
Last week, I had more misses than hits on my predictions. I was wrong about Daniel Jones. He did not finish as a top 3 QB for the week and I was also way off on Ezekiel Elliott. He did not score a touchdown against his former team. I was partly right about Justin Fields having a big day. He didn't rush for 100 yards as I thought, but he did finish with almost 30 fantasy points. I was also right about Buffalo holding Miami to 20 or fewer points. Lastly, I was wrong about Davante Adams having 200 receiving yards, but I made that prediction believing that Jimmy Garoppolo would be playing, so I'm giving myself a pass on that one. At any rate, let's hope for some better results this week!
Week 5 Bold NFL Predictions
Zach Wilson Channels Aaron Rodgers
The New York Jets almost upset the reigning Super Bowl Champs last week, and Zach Wilson played way over his head in a fantastic performance. This week, things get a lot easier for Wilson as he faces the league's worst defense in Denver. The Broncos have been horrid on defense, allowing an average of 461 yards per game. Justin Fields threw for 335 yards and four touchdowns against them last week. The only quarterback not to throw for 299 or more yards against them this season is Jimmy Garoppolo.
Clearly, Zach Wilson has had his issues this season, no doubt. But against the Chiefs, he looked like a professional NFL quarterback for the first time this season. That has to be Wilson's confidence-builder and one he can build in a smash matchup this week. I think he will take the leap this week, because if he doesn't, he probably never will. I predict Wilson will ball out this week and pass for 300 or yards against Denver.
McCaffrey's Streak Sidelined
One of the most impressive streaks in the NFL currently is Christian McCaffrey's 13-game touchdown streak. He's only two games away from tying the NFL record. McCaffrey has looked more dominant this season than he ever has, and that's saying a lot! The 49ers' offense runs though McCaffrey and it's a difficult task for any team to stop him. However, if any team can, it's the Dallas Cowboys.
The Cowboys are allowing over 100 rushing yards per game, but what they're not allowing is many points. They have the lowest point-per-play rate in the league by a wide margin and are allowing just 10.3 points per game, also best in the league. It's true that Dallas has had a very soft schedule to open the year and San Francisco has, by far, the best offense they've had to play against. The 49ers rank second in offensive DVOA, but it's important to put their success into perspective, as well. They have faced the Cardinals, Giants, and Steelers, all below-average defenses. The did play against the Rams and scored 30 points, so there's no question the offense if legit, but I think young Brock Purdy could have a difficult time with Dallas' defensive pressure.
In a game where both teams are averaging 30 points per game, one would expect a lot of scoring. But I think the Vegas total of 45 is exactly right. I think the Cowboys can pull off a win in a defensive struggle and keep McCaffrey from extending his touchdown streak.
Dolphins Ride Giant Wave over New York
This might be the only time that suggesting an NFL team could score 50 points isn't exactly the boldest prediction. The Dolphins are averaging 37.5 points per game. That includes their Week 3 game where they scored 70 points against the Broncos. If you don't count that game, their average falls to just under 27 points per game. Still good, but not elite. The Giants, on the other hand, are giving up 30 points per game, third-worst in the league. This game has the only double-digit spread this week and I'm not sure it's high enough. Miami might have gotten exposed last week against the Bills, but I think they will come back strong this week. New York seems to be going through some inner turmoil and I think they're going to get overwhelmed quickly by the Dolphins' speed. Talent-wise, collectively, there's no comparison between these two teams. Miami should win this game easily, maybe too easily, and put up 50 on the scoreboard in a blowout win against the Giants.
Jake Fergalicious in San Francisco
This is my second bold prediction for the Cowboys-49ers game. I don't think there will be a ton of offense in this game and few, if any, big time plays. I expect to see a ton of check downs and running plays. Tight ends for both teams should see plenty of action, but I think Jake Ferguson will be the biggest benefactor. The Dallas tight end has 25 targets this year, but he leads the league with nine red zone targets. That's two more than anyone else has. He only has one touchdown, so he's due for some positive TD regression. This game script, along with his opportunity share, line up for a big day for Ferguson. I think he will leave San Francisco with two touchdowns on the day.
Mike Drop- Thomas' Big Day
The Saints travel to New England to take on the Patriots. Both teams are coming off losses and the situation is dire for New England who, at 1-3, desperately need a win. New Orleans quarterback, Derek Carr, is dealing with a shoulder injury and was clearly affected by it in Week 4. He has been limited in practice, but it looks like he will be on the field again this week. That's good news for Thomas because Carr has favored him in red zone, where he leads the team in targets. The Patriots have done a good job containing team's number one receivers, but have given up more receptions and yards to the number two receiver. The Saints aren't likely to be able to stretch the field against New England, so Thomas could see more targets than usual. I expect Thomas to lead the Saints in receptions and yards and to score his first touchdown of the season.
Doug Burrell finished 2022 as Fantasy Nerd's Most Accurate Expert in NFL Picks and Tallysight's #1 ranked expert Against the Spread Expert out of 200+ experts. He is a veteran, a runner and an avid fantasy sports enthusiast since 1999. You can reach him on Twitter @dougwburrell. Doug is a veteran, an avid runner, and works as a copywriter. He lives in North Carolina with his wife and three dogs.