Determining which player will break out is an interesting thing. Breakout is not that different from sleeper. In fact, in my estimation, the only difference is that those we predict to break out have at least a season or two showing us some set of skills that make it appear as if they are just about to turn a corner. Below are five such players. Players that have shown enough for me to plant my flag on them being this year’s breakout candidates. By reading the tea leaves these are the five players that jumped out to me as being on the cusp of doing something special. Of course, these tea leaves could be a mirage and these predictions could always be wrong. The good thing is none of these players come with extremely high price tags and for each of them, the reward far outweighs the risk.
Brendan Donovan, St. Louis Cardinals
Brendon Donovan is not the first name that comes to mind when you think of breakout candidates this season. Donovan is currently being drafted 280th overall and is barely in the top-25 at the position. Still, there is plenty there to like for fantasy managers. Last season, Donovan hit .284 with a .365 on-base percentage. This was his second straight year clearing the .280 mark. He also had career-bests in both home runs with 11 and slugging percentage with .422. Much of this is due to a strong discipline at the plate. If I were looking at Donovan purely as a second baseman he would look like a steal come draft day, but taking into account his flexibility as a utility player he becomes a near must-draft player later in drafts. It is easy to imagine a scenario where Donovan outperforms his ADP and when that happens I would rather it be me who has him on my squad than one of my league-mates.
Bryson Stott, Philadelphia Phillies
I have already spoken about Stott in my top-10 second baseman for Fantasy Baseball 2024 article, but with an ADP of 161st overall, Stott qualifies as a potential breakout candidate as well. It could be argued that Stott was approaching a breakout last year, improving across the board. In 640 plate appearances, Stott had 15 home runs, 62 RBI, 78 runs, and 31 stolen bases with a .280 batting average, while playing in 151 games. This was compared to 10 home runs, 49 RBI, 12 stolen bases, 58 runs, and a .234 batting average the year before. Yet, at just 26 years old there is still room for improvement, but he looks like a shoo-in for double-digit home runs and stolen bases. Stott also has dual-eligibility at both second base and shortstop and is a defensive stud which will keep him in the lineup. All this points to a skill set that seems destined to take off in 2024. Draft with confidence.
Eduoard Julien, Minnesota Twins
Edouard Julien had a successful MLB debut in 2023 and will now be looking toward an equally successful sequel. Julien is projected to be the leadoff batter for the Twins and offers batting average and runs upside. Julien is also already one of the best in the league at drawing walks and hitting for power. In 2023, among batters with a minimum of 400 plate appearances, Julien had the fifth-best walk rate at 15.7%. He was also one of just 15 players to rank in the 85th percentile or better in terms of both walk rate and barrel rate, logging a 13.1% metric in the latter category. In the end, Julien hit .263 with an OBP of .381, 16 home runs, and three steals in 408 plate appearances. He is also a very disciplined batter with the lowest out-of-zone swing rate in the league last year. If he can be as disciplined inside the zone and make more contact there then we should see him break out in 2024.
Nolan Gorman, St. Louis Cardinals
It may seem strange to have two players on the same team, at the same position listed as breakout candidates, but, in this instance, I think it’s appropriate. Nolan Gorman does not come without his risks, but if you can withstand a slightly lower batting average due to strikeouts, Gorman could be a solid target for managers later in drafts, because he does just about everything else well at the plate. In 2023, Gorman consistently made quality contact. He also had a walk rate of 11.4% (third-best among second basemen with at least 450 plate appearances.) He also added 27 home runs (third-most at the position), 76 RBI (fourth-most), 59 runs, and seven stolen bases. This was after stealing just one base in his rookie season. If this becomes a more consistent and productive part of his game his fantasy ceiling would see a big boost. Gorman has top-5 upside at the position, and although he is still a work in progress, with an ADP of 158th overall, if the breakout does happen, he will be a draft-day steal.
Zack Gelof, Oakland Athletics
This is a tough one because it’s a “like the player but dislike the team” situation. If Zack Gelof were not playing for the Oakland A’s this would be a no-brainer. But he is and that has to be taken into consideration since it puts a cap on an otherwise significant ceiling. But the 2nd-year player, who enjoyed a solid rookie season in 2023, will continue to be a centerpiece of the Oakland lineup. Unfortunately, it’s a lineup that scored fewer runs than any other team last year, and 56 fewer runs than the next closest team, and outside of the additions of Miguel Andujar and Abraham Toro there have been no significant improvements. Still, upon arrival into the league, Gelof put everyone on notice hitting nine home runs, 17 RBI, 23 runs, and stealing eight bases in his first 33 games. While his pace did slow down over the rest of the season, Gelof still managed 14 home runs, 32 RBI, 40 runs, 14 stolen bases, and a .267 average with an OBP of .337 in 300 plate appearances. He should once again make regular appearances (400-500) at the top of the lineup. While he comes with some significant risks, there is such tremendous upside with Gelof that it just might be worth it.
