5 Dynasty Disappointments to Buy at a Discount

Dynasty Disappointments Who Will Bounce Back

In our beloved game of fake football, past performance and anticipated opportunity dictate expectations. Expectations dictate price. Sometimes a player falling short of past expectations lowers their future expectations, to the point where that player’s price falls below his likely range of outcomes. Reflecting on the 2021 season, we saw our fair share of players who disappointed relative to their cost. Some of them were misfires in preseason analysis, injuries, or back luck. However, others may project sneaky value going forward. When attempting to reconcile perception with reality, here are 5 players who we should buy back in on in 2022… 

Lamar Jackson

I almost always wait on quarterbacks in drafts, and as a general rule of thumb, you should too. The biggest reason to avoid burning an early pick on a QB is that the position is replaceable – the supply effectively meets the demand in single quarterback formats. This makes it entirely irrational to take a quarterback instead of a top-tier RB, WR, or TE in the 3rd round of your draft, even if that quarterback ends up having an outstanding run. 

There is a notion in some expert circles that fantasy managers are getting smarter about QB value in drafts and deciding to hold out a bit longer, but the aggregate data would suggest otherwise…

We can look at the average draft position (ADP) of quarterbacks trended over time at various tiers. To provide a range that paints a clear picture, I took a look at the ADP of each year’s 1st, 5th, and 12th quarterbacks off the board each year since 2014 using FantasyData’s ADP Tracker history. I chose these ranks because I wanted to see when people start taking quarterbacks, when they take the last of the elite quarterbacks (which I am calling top 5) and when they take the last starting QB in a 12-team league. 

After an initial dip in ADP from 2014 to 2018, the data shows an interesting reversion closer to where it was. This may be explained by the incredible value created around that time by the young crop of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson.

What this data showed me is that you are not likely to get Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes at a discount due to more logical valuation at the position. However, Lamar Jackson is no longer being taken as a top 2 quarterback. He has a ceiling just as high or higher than Allen or Mahomes (because we’ve seen it), but his price is lower simply because he is perceived to have a lower likelihood of reaching that ceiling. If that’s within your risk tolerance, then Jackson presents screaming value.

I still support taking a late-round QB. However, the one exception I make is if I can grab someone with overall QB1 upside taken no earlier than the 4th or 5th QB off the board in the middle rounds. Lamar Jackson fits that description, likely to be taken after names like Allen, Mahomes, Justin Herbert, and Kyler Murray. Depending on the talent available at other positions, I would strongly consider pulling the trigger for Lamar around the 5th round and would do so without hesitation anywhere after that. If you are in an existing dynasty league, consider trading for him before the season begins because his price may be at its lowest level.  

Between Jackson’s injury, multiple illnesses, and injured RB weapons limiting his RPO threats, Jackson had a very difficult situation to work with last season. He should have some better fortune moving forward, both through the air and on the ground.

CeeDee Lamb

There may not have been a more hyped receiver in 2021 fantasy drafts than CeeDee Lamb. Finishing as the WR17 in half-PPR scoring (sandwiched between Jaylen Waddle and Michael Pittman), it’s fair to say he disappointed. However, there is a lot to be optimistic about with Lamb…

Buy Ceedee Lamb! 🔥

Dalton Schultz, Michael Gallup, Ced Wilson, and Noah Brown combined for 174 rec, 2,039 yds, and 16 TDs in 2021. They are all FAs.

With Lamb picking up 50%+ of those vacated targets, we can easily project him for over 2,000 yds and 15 TDs in 2022! 📈

— Paul DFF (@fantasyfreezer) February 23, 2022

The Cowboys may see a lot of vacated targets there for the taking. What I find interesting about these targets is that they are a combination of long (Cedrick Wilson and Michael Gallup), and red zone (Dalton Schulz) targets. Lamb already owns the slot but is a complete player who can capitalize on an expanded route tree. Combine that target opportunity with the expressed disappointment from ownership around Amari Cooper and it is likely that Dallas makes a point to elevate Lamb as their next superstar #88 for years to come. 

Lamb’s dynasty value remains high, but I expect it to waver slightly due to the sour taste he left fantasy managers who were doing backflips when they acquired him a year ago. Take advantage of it while the window to do so is slightly cracked open.

[Update]: Dalton Schulz has been franchise tagged but with Amari Cooper’s trade to Cleveland, Lamb remains a premium dynasty asset. Concerns of bracket coverage from opposing defenses are overblown.

Miles Sanders

Miles Sanders was firmly on my “do not draft” list entering 2021. I have no regrets based on his production and usage. Sanders only had three double-digit fantasy point games in 2021, and two of those were against the Jets and Falcons. He also somehow managed to have zero touchdowns in 12 games played. However, many of the reasons for my skepticism actually eased up later in the season, to ‌where I am buying back in on Sanders at his depressed price. 

There are a few ‌positives that I believe bode well for Sanders‌. His three highest rush attempt totals of the season occurred in his final five games played. This undoubtedly was due in part to various injuries in the backfield, but it also coincides with the Eagles heavily shifting the play calling to favor the ground game as the season progressed. Sanders does not have to be a three-down back to succeed in fantasy as long as the pie remains as large as it was over the back half of the year. 

As it relates to workload splits, last year we saw a rotation of Sanders, Jordan Howard, Boston Scott, and Kenneth Gainwell. Jordan Howard is an unrestricted free agent and Boston Scott is a restricted free agent. I would expect the four-headed backfield monster to cut down to three with the team electing not to keep Howard. Gainwell is best used as a passing-down back. This leaves Sanders and Scott sharing early-down usage. While there has been a lot of love for Scott in the fantasy community, it is largely overlooked that he is two years older than Sanders. With Sanders entering the new season at age 25 and Scott at age 27, I would fully expect Sanders to be the 1A of this backfield, health permitting. This could easily result in his snap share jumping from his 52% share last year to upwards of 60%. 

To further support Miles Sanders’ opportunity and expected volume, we can also inspect his efficiency. His breakaway rate, defined as his rate of carries going for 15 or more yards, ranked 2nd among the 40 running backs logging over 130 carries behind only Dalvin Cook and just ahead of Nick Chubb. The problem is that Sanders just barely made the cut with 137 carries.

Applying Sanders’ efficiency metrics (even if there is a slight decline) to an expected boost in opportunity makes his current value a steal. Add in the fact that he probably won’t have zero touchdowns again and he could be one of the biggest bargains for the upcoming season. Fantasy managers will avoid him based on his past disappointments and lack of goal-line usage, but a few minor changes can shoot Sanders up the ranks in a hurry.

DK Metcalf

It’s odd to even call Metcalf a disappointment when he scored 12 touchdowns, yet I don’t think anyone who owned him enjoyed owning him. This might be because 3 of those scores came in championship week, which Metcalf owners were likely not participating in. It also might be because he had a stretch with no touchdowns and under 9 fantasy points each week from weeks 10 through 15, an extremely vital period of the season. 

Any fantasy owner can spot the fact that Metcalf’s cold streak was partially during Russell Wilson’s absence as well as Wilson playing at less than 100% upon return, yet I don’t think that will be appropriately factored in as the season approaches. Metcalf logged the exact same target count in 2021 that he had in 2020 with 129 (albeit with one additional game), yet tallied 336 fewer yards. This is an efficiency dip directly tied to Russell Wilson.

As the great Maya Angelou said, “people will forget what you did, but people will never forget how you made them feel.” Well, DK Metcalf made a lot of fantasy managers feel like hot garbage when it mattered most. Take advantage of the sentiment and snatch him up at a bargain. As with CeeDee Lamb, Metcalf’s value remains strong in dynasty but this might be the last realistic window you have to acquire him.

Of course, any seismic shift at QB with the Russell Wilson saga would change Metcalf’s outlook, but if Wilson is behind center, Metcalf should provide tremendous value. 

[Update]: With the recent news of the Russell Wilson trade to Denver, Metcalf’s immediate value plummets but he also becomes an even better trade target in dynasty. He has multiple routes to regaining his value in a hurry if Seattle trades him to a contender or they acquire a viable QB option themselves.

Stefon Diggs

Most people don’t realize that Diggs led the league in endzone targets by a significant margin. He had 23 when the next highest was Justin Jefferson with 15. Those 23 targets resulted in 10 touchdowns. Scoring 10 touchdowns, when thought about as a standalone data point, certainly does not scream positive TD regression going forward. However, he probably should have ended up with a few more considering the opportunity. 

As a comparison, Cooper Kupp who lit the world on fire scored 16 times when he only had 11 endzone targets – an incredibly difficult feat to repeat. If Kupp and Diggs play the same number of games next season, I’m not necessarily saying Diggs will outscore Kupp, but I do believe that the gap (133 fantasy point difference in half-PPR scoring last year) will be significantly smaller, making Diggs a likely value at his current price.

As a final note, I want to call out that 3 of my 5 discount picks are WRs who are fairly expensive to begin with (Diggs, Lamb, Metcalf). In digging through the data, I looked for disappointing WRs who had strong advanced metrics and I wasn’t terribly encouraged by it. There can be a case for positive regression for guys like Allen Robinson or Terry McLaurin, or that we finally see a D.J. Moore breakout that reflects his monster target share and air yards. However, unless those receivers find potent offenses with quality quarterbacks, I’m not buying them even at cost. This analysis has me leaning WR-heavy in early rounds going into 2022, a significant change from my philosophy in 2021 when I was in love with mid and late-round WR value.