Denver Broncos 2022 Forecast
The Denver Broncos 2021 season was disappointing, to say the least. On one hand, the Broncos were the NFL’s eighth-ranked defense despite a litany of injuries to some of their most important pieces. Then, on the other hand, they were incredibly mediocre on the offensive side as they ranked 19th in total offense. In spite of their impressive defense, the Broncos finished at the bottom of a loaded AFC West with a record of 7-10.
Denver’s subpar record and the current landscape of the AFC West may provide the look of a team that is facing an extremely uphill battle. However, a popular notion that has been circulating through NFL offseason coverage is that the Broncos are a team that is just a quarterback away from evolving into a Super Bowl contender. At face value, it might be easy to come to that conclusion with their solid defense, young offensive talent, and the fifth most cap room in the league. But before making any judgments, we need to take a deeper look at both sides of the ball in Denver.
The Defense
Starting out with what’s been good about this team, the Broncos have been impressive on defense for the past few years but they do have some question marks. They have a decent amount of unrestricted free agents in their secondary like CB Kyle Fuller, CB Bryce Callahan, and SS Kareem Jackson. In addition to their secondary, inside linebackers A.J. Johnson and Kenny Young are set to hit the open market as well. With their $39 million in available cap room though, it shouldn’t be much of a challenge to re-sign the players they want to bring back.
Another question mark is the firing of Vic Fangio. While Fangio was anemic as a head coach, he is a stellar defensive mind. The lackluster offense was often too much to overcome but Fangio would consistently deploy a two safety shell that was able to slow down high-flying pass offenses like the Chiefs and Chargers. This playstyle usually kept games closer than they should’ve been against offenses that would normally tear opposing defenses to shreds.
The Broncos are welcoming in a new coaching staff with former Ram’s secondary coach, Ejiro Evero, taking over as defensive coordinator. If he replicates what Fangio was able to accomplish on the defensive side while keeping some of their free agents, then Denver should be able to put together a strong unit like they have been for years now. Justin Simmons, Bradley Chubb, and the young star, Patrick Surtain II, will lead a defense that shows plenty of potential for further success in 2022.
The Offense
Now onto the ugly. Ever since the Broncos were victorious in Super Bowl 50, it seems like the franchise has concluded that the NFL hasn’t evolved past the 2015 season. Year after year, Denver has been pushing out mediocre, at best, offenses that are almost always led by an uninspired check-down artist. From Trevor Siemian to Teddy Bridgewater, the Broncos are in desperate need of a culture change.
While the answer at quarterback is not currently on the roster, the Broncos have done everything they can to build up the offense through recent drafts. The receiving group is composed of players that have plenty of potential at an average age of 24.4 years old. Courtland Sutton has proven to be a Mike Evans-esque receiver after his 2019 Pro Bowl selection, Jerry Jeudy is a former first-rounder and top-tier route runner, Tim Patrick has been a nice undrafted diamond in the rough, and K.J. Hamler has potential as a player with game-breaking speed. Tight ends, Noah Fant and Albert Okwuegbunam, also have plenty of talent and could be two of the league’s better receiving tight ends in the future. These players haven’t been statistically impressive, outside of Sutton in 2019, but they all show promise and the situation they’ve been placed into has been anything but favorable to their skillsets.
When you glance at a list of recent Broncos receiving statistics, one might be quick to write the receiving core off as substandard. But you need to take a look into the Broncos’ quarterback situation to gain a realistic idea of what this offense has been dealing with. Over the past three seasons, the Broncos have ranked 27th, 19th, and 25th in pass attempts per game, respectfully. The combination of mostly Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, and Teddy Bridgewater have combined for a team passer rating of 82.7 during that stretch. The league average for passer rating over the past three years is 91.6, so Denver is fairly below average in that department.
The run game has been one of the better parts of this offense as Denver ranked 13th in rushing yards per game in 2021. The combination of Melvin Gordon III and bruising rookie, Javonte Williams, proved to be effective but it could’ve been better. Both running backs were operating on a 50-50 split, which kept their legs fresh, but it prevented either of them from building up any real groove over the course of a matchup. While Gordon was one of the more efficient backs in the league, the Broncos should consider giving Williams a stronger share of the load in 2022. He has a bowling ball-like rushing style that can wear down a defensive front quickly as he is very hard to bring down. It’d be wise to run the offense in more of a 60-40 split in favor of Javonte, that is if Melvin Gordon returns to Denver after free agency.
While the offense has been brutal to watch for some time now, the Broncos’ play calling could be on the upswing. As mentioned before, Vic Fangio has been fired which means that the abysmal playcalling of Pat Shurmur is gone with him. Shurmur has a history of not coaching to players’ strengths and that was apparent in 2021 with predictable play calling and confusing offensive sets. Now, the Broncos are being led by an offensive-minded head coach in Nathaniel Hackett. Hackett has a nice track record as the Packers offensive coordinator with a strong endorsement from back-to-back MVP, Aaron Rodgers. The addition of Hackett isn’t necessarily guaranteeing Rodgers in a Bronco uniform, but it does provide a jolt of life for a team that is desperately craving some actual production on offense.
What Now?
Any team could say that their roster is an elite quarterback away from contending but in Denver’s case, it’s hard to not agree with that belief. Outside of some spots on defense that should be addressed through free agency, the Broncos have a spoil of potential stars on the offensive and defensive side of the ball. The defense has been able to prove their worth but the offense is clearly in desperate need of some solid quarterback play at the very least.
The Broncos’ potential for success may be there but without the presence of a great quarterback to lead this supposedly loaded offense, it will be incredibly tough to win when teams in the AFC are only getting better with star quarterbacks of their own. With elite quarterbacks like Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson being rumored as potential targets, the 2022 offseason has become one of the most important offseasons in recent memory for the Mile High City.
