Fantasy Football Rookies With ADP Spike Potential
One of my favorite parts of the offseason has been watching the development of the rookie class. From the draft to the training game, I get to see (and lay a few takes down) where the development and roles of the new class end up before the season begins. It’s all about getting an edge over your fantasy league members. Last season, I called my shot on a few rookies ahead of the draft, and my league mates were stumped. Miami Dolphins rookie running back De’Von Achane was one of my best hits last season, and he helped me get through the first part of the fantasy season by averaging over 30 fantasy points per game over the week. Adding rookies to your draft strategy can help you find firepower in the latter part of your fantasy drafts because their ADP is cheap. You have to keep an eye on that their average draft position can change throughout the offseason because camp reports are gold, even if you’re not a fan of “coach speak.” There are a few guys on my watch list who could get a bump in ADP the closer we get to redraft season.
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Brian Thomas, WR – JAX
Current ADP – WR47
Brian Thomas is one of my favorite rookies out of the 2024 NFL draft, and his landing spot and being drafted by the Jacksonville Jaguars are great pieces for the young wideout. After Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr, Thomas has one of the better paths to immediate snaps and targets in the offense. Like most rookies, I expect Thomas Jr to be eased into the offense unless that sentiment changes from his coaches during the training camp. Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones leave behind enough work and snaps combined to allow Brian Thomas Jr to jump off to a nice start in a passing offense that finished sixth in pass attempts in 2023. With a nearly 33% target share up in the air, Thomas can take a nice chunk of the pie from the start. Thomas showcases size and speed and can separate from defenders to be utilized all over the field, which should keep him on the field. Thomas is a wide receiver, and I would target heavy shares of him in Dynasty formats and take him over wide receivers like Chris Godwin, Jordan Addison, and DeAndre Hopkins in redraft formats.
Keon Coleman, WR – BUF
Current ADP – WR42
Keon Coleman is another wide receiver who should have a path to direct targets. When you look at the Bills wide receiver corp, it makes sense to assume that Coleman will be the lead man. The Bills invested in the wide receiver position after trading Stefon Diggs to the Houston Texans and letting Gabriel Davis walk in free agency. The Bills signed Chase Claypool, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, and Curtis Samuel during free agency and still have Khalil Shakir on the roster. However, none of those guys have been asked to carry the mail as the top option in their previous offenses. Coleman looks to be the “crown jewel” in the Bills’ new offense as it gears to a more run-focused offense. Despite that offensive change, Josh Allen is still throwing the ball, and Coleman looks to be the main beneficiary of those targets.
Ray Davis, RB – BUF
Current ADP – RB53
I’m going to stay with the Bills real quick and despite my love for James Cook, I think Ray Davis could see a bump in ADP to be the tandem back to what Cook brings to the table. It’s not a mistake that the Bills want to run the ball more this coming season after switching offensive coordinators midseason last year. They want to get the ball out of Josh Allen’s hands and into the backfield. Cook benefited from that change as he was the RB7 from weeks 10-17, averaging 17 FPPG. Cook also averaged five yards per carry on the ground but struggled at punching it in once the Bills got to the goalline. Davis is not only a banger but can use his speed to get to the outside, break off big runs, and be an asset in the passing game. This would make Cook/Davis nearly interchangeable for the Bills offense. I believe the NFL saw what the Lions did last season with David Montgomery and Jahyr Gibbs and we know that the NFL is a “copycat league”.
Ladd McConkey, WR – LAC
Current ADP – WR42
With all the positive news out of the Chargers camp this offseason on Ladd McConkey, I’m surprised his ADP hasn’t jumped through the roof already. McConkey has reportedly been gelling well with Justin Herbert, taking a lot of snaps out of the slot. The Chargers overhauled their wide receiver group starting last season when they took Quentin Johnston during the first round of the 2023 NFL draft. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are on new teams this season, and the only remaining receiver on the Chargers roster is Joshua Palmer. With Greg Roman as the new offensive coordinator in LA, the Chargers could be more run-oriented like the good ol’ Baltimore Ravens days. If the buzz keeps building on the connection between Justin Herbert and Ladd McConkey, expect to see the rookie wide receivers’ ADP jump as the fantasy world looks to see who will be the WR1 for the Chargers new-look offense in 2024. Ladd McConkey’s fantasy value is already higher than fellow Chargers wide receiver (and second-year receiver) Quentin Johnston. That should tell you what kind of expectations are being put on McConkey this season.
Ja’Lynn Polk, WR – NE
Current ADP – WR75
The New England Patriots offense is “rebuilding,” but I don’t expect the Patriots to go quietly into the night. New England has their new quarterback, Drake Maye, who has a big arm and looks to be the future franchise quarterback. While there are some apprehensions about whether or not Maye should start, the offseason is where we get to see if Maye makes his mark on the team enough to allow him to start over fellow quarterback Jacoby Brissett. Ja’Lynn Polk is a key piece in the Patriots’ “changing of the guard,” as their offensive weapons were on the “lackluster” side last season. Only one Patriots receiver cracked 500 receiving yards last year, and that was Demario Douglas. This needs to change. Polk has been on big-time offenses with the University of Washington and Michael Penix at the college level. Polk is a wide receiver I’d like to target later on in the draft, but should noise start to rumble out of training camp that Polk is putting on a show with either Brissett or Maye (or even both), Polk would be a rookie that would see an increase in ADP.
