Fantasy Football Buyer Beware
Year after year, we hear that we should avoid wide receivers who are turning 30 or have passed this milestone in fantasy football and according to previous fantasy football data, the past 5 seasons of WR1 finishes averaged 27 years old, with half of the 60 top-12 finishes coming in between 24.8 and 28.75 years old. There is plenty of data to show that younger wide receivers are more likely to be poised for monster seasons (this is why they are usually higher in our rankings), but is there enough data to show that 30-year-old wide receivers should still be targeted like the elite producers they once were?
As my research was conducted, I looked at the stats and ADP pages on FantasyData. I cross-referenced both of these pages for 30-year-old receivers who were drafted in the top-36 of ADP for wide receivers and those who finished in the top-36 of wide receivers at the end of the season. The receivers selected as 30+ years old were those that TURNED 30 before the denoted season (aside from Tyler Lockett who turned 30, 2-3 weeks into the 2022 season).
We’ve heard so much about this phenomenon, but I was curious to see if there was any merit to where we draft these receivers and where they finished. The results that I found were astonishing and you don’t want to miss out on these findings. Let’s see if you should continue drafting these aging players or if you should simply keep them from your radars in your upcoming 2024 fantasy football drafts.
Previous Data
Below, you will see all of the players that were 30+ years old over the last 5 years, where they were drafted, and where they were finished amongst wide receivers. 27 wide receivers met the criteria of being 30+ years old and were either drafted as a top 36 wide receiver (based on ADP) or finished as a top 36 wide receiver. Of these 27 players, 12 of them either matched or exceeded where they were drafted (finished at or above their ADP) resulting in a 44% “hit rate”. While it may not be as high as you’d like to see, this is a significant finding.
But why is this important and how can they help me decide on who to draft in fantasy football? Great question. As you can tell, it is a fickle game trying to predict which 30+-year-old receiver is going to finish in the top 36. Heck, it’s hard to predict that for anyone that we draft. Looking at that 44% of players who “hit”, how many of them were drafted as a WR1, WR2, WR3, etc? For example, Mike Evans was drafted at WR33 in 2023 ADP but finished as WR7. You got a massive ROI for this player. Conversely, Cooper Kupp was drafted as WR4 in 2023 ADP and finished as WR40. Ouch.
When you look at the 44% of players that “hit”, you can see a bit of a pattern developing. While we do see instances of players holding up to their lofty ADP (Julio Jones in 2019) or players making jumps from one tier to the next in rankings (Keenan Allen in 2023), you might notice that a lot of these players who finished in the top 36 were drafted WELL outside of that range. 58% of these 12 players were drafted outside of the top 36 but finished within the top 36 at the end of the season. Talk about a good ROI when you consider fantasy finish and ADP.
Essentially, what this data is showing is that 30-year-old wide receivers are not notorious for finishing at their ADP, but can exceed their ADP by quite a wide margin. Drafting a wide receiver in their 30s and expecting them to finish at that spot only hits 44% of the time. Those aren’t terrible odds, but when you have younger players you could draft instead that would, in turn, provide more upside, you should probably target those guys with earlier picks. However, once you get to the later rounds, those veterans that no one wants could be a steal. 58% of 30-year-old wide receivers that finished in the top 36 were drafted outside of that range. Be patient and take your chances later in the draft. It could save you heartbreak and misery.
Current Projections
Looking ahead to this year’s fantasy football season and drafts, we can use this data to make informed decisions about where we want to go with our teams and if we should be targeting 30-year-old wide receivers. Currently, the top 36 ADP for wide receivers includes these 30-year-olds: Tyreek Hill (WR2), Davante Adams (WR10), Mike Evans (WR18), Stefon Diggs (WR19), Cooper Kupp (WR23), Amari Cooper (WR26), and Keenan Allen (WR32).
We can come up with a plethora of reasons and excuses to draft any of these guys at their current ADP, but the question remains whether or not it is a smart investment. Many will look at past production and say, “to heck with it, I’m taking my guy.” That’s okay! However, if you approach fantasy football more analytically, it may behoove you to take one of these guys with a suppressed ADP and see what you can get that way.
This is not me saying that one way is better than another, but data does speak for itself. We have found that most receivers, once they hit 30-years-old, do tend to fall off a cliff and not have that great of seasons in respect to where they were drafted. Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule and that remains more true than ever before. However, you can catch me targeting guys like Kupp, Cooper, and Allen rather than Hill or Adams. If I can get these elite level guys on the wrong side of 30 and it’s costing me, roughly, a 4th round pick, I’m all in. Load up on young talent in the 1st and 2nd rounds of your fantasy football drafts and then see how the board falls. You may get luckier than you think.
