You may have noticed a slight hiatus from this article, but thankfully we are back and ready to finish the season out strong!
This point of the season brings in plenty of different scenarios that we will have to pay attention to. What teams are out of the playoff race and are just trying to get higher draft picks? Which teams might start resting their starters? What players will be given a chance now that their season is effectively over?
Some of these questions will bring opportunities for DFS, while others might make certain players a lot more risky. That said, let’s dive into Week 16 of DraftKings picks.
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills) – $8700 vs NE
Josh Allen has been on an absolute tear the last few weeks, putting up almost 100 fantasy points in two games (combined). Last week against the Lions, Allen threw for 362 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 68 yards and another two touchdowns.
Allen has been running a lot again, which might be one reason why he suddenly is blowing up for fantasy.
This week, the Bills welcome their division rival, the New England Patriots, which should be a relative cakewalk for Allen and the Bills. New England is currently in the middle of the pack in defense against the quarterback, so Allen has yet another chance for a 3+ TD game.
Now he may not throw for a ton of yardage this game, seeing as how the previous two games were 80-point shootouts, but this matchup is probably the safest “floor” of any top QB.
Michael Penix Jr (Atlanta Falcons) – $4500 vs NYG
Throwing in a rookie Quarterback in Week 16 may be a bit of a risk fantasy-wise, but at such a cheap price it may be worth the chance.
Michael Penix Jr had huge seasons in college at both Indiana and Washington, so it’ll be interesting to see if it translates to the NFL. Now Penix Jr was supposed to grow behind Kirk Cousins for a few years so obviously the Falcons didn’t quite think he was ready to lead the team, but until he’s given a shot we won’t know.
With that said, Penix faces a bad Giants’ team that probably is vying for the first overall draft pick, so it doesn’t get much better matchup-wise. The Falcons have plenty of talent on the offense with Drake London, Kyle Pitts, Darnell Mooney, and Bijan Robinson, so Penix is set up to succeed.
Running Backs
Jahmyr Gibbs (Detroit Lions) – $7500 @ CHI
There are a lot of great options at the top of the Running Back list this week, but Gibbs has the best overall opportunity, so I went with him.
David Montgomery went on IR with a knee injury last week, leaving Gibbs as the only main back (Craig Reynolds is still there, so he probably gets worked in). The Lions also face the Bears this week, who currently rank 28th in points allowed to opposing Running Backs.
Gibbs already has 1047 yards rushing this season, along with 14 touchdowns on the ground and three through the air, and has a great opportunity to add to some, if not all, of those totals.
Jerome Ford (Cleveland Browns) – $5600 @ CIN
Well, you have to feel somewhat sorry for Nick Chubb, who is back on IR after suffering a foot injury. But it does open the door again for Jerome Ford, who started this season as a somewhat serviceable fantasy Running Back.
Cleveland has struggled lately, but you could point to the gauntlet of defenses they’ve had to play over the last five weeks, including New Orleans, Denver, Pittsburgh (2x), and Kansas City. All of those defenses have been very good, especially in stopping the run, so you can definitely see why the rushing stats are down for Cleveland.
Fortunately for Ford, the schedule gets much easier this week with a matchup against the Bengals. The Bengals’ defense have been bad enough to bring the team to a 6-8 record, so Ford should have plenty of room to run. Figuring Cleveland has to play catchup a lot, Ford could also be in for a bunch of targets.
At only $5600, Ford is a cheap workhorse back option with an easier matchup.
Ameer Abdullah (Las Vegas Raiders) – $4600 vs JAX
A battle of two horrible teams still provides plenty of fantasy options, and that includes pass-catching back Ameer Abdullah.
Sincere McCormick, who had taken over a bigger role in the Raider offense, is on IR after last week’s game against the Falcons, leaving only Alexander Mattison and Abdullah as healthy backs.
Mattison hasn’t really impressed, so Abdullah could be in for more carries this week. Jacksonville is also an easy matchup for Running Backs, so we should see plenty of rushing opportunities.
Also in Abdullah’s favor is his pass-catching ability. I can’t say the Jaguars will put up a ton of points on the Raider defense, but we can hope this game becomes a shootout so Abdullah is utilized even more.
At a measely $4600, Abdullah is a great high potential player who should at least get 10 touches.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams (New York Jets) – $7100 vs LAR
The Jets are once again a laughing stock of the NFL, but Davante Adams has been on fire the last few weeks. It seems as though Aaron Rodgers has remembered what it felt like to pepper Adams with targets, which is great for this matchup with the Rams.
Over the last two weeks, Adams has caught 18 passes for 307 yards and three touchdowns. He has at least 10 targets in five-of-six games over six weeks.
The Rams currently are ranked 21st in points allowed to opposing receivers, and their dynamic duo of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua should keep this game high-scoring. Adams is in line for a ton of work once again.
Brian Thomas Jr (Jacksonville Jaguars) – $6300 @ LV
If there has been one bright spot in the 2024 Jaguar season, it would be rookie Wide Receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Thomas Jr played through all the QB issues and injuries and still managed 956 yards and eight touchdowns so far this season.
Even with backup QB Mac Jones in Brian Thomas has been awesome. He has over 76 yards receiving in each of his last four games, and has caught three touchdowns in that span. Last week against a solid Jets’ secondary Thomas caught a career-high ten passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns.
This week he faces a much worse Raider defense. Figuring he continues to be the focal point of the Jaguar offense (especially with TE Evan Engram out for the season), Thomas Jr should put up plenty of fantasy points the remainder of the year.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Seattle Seahawks) – $6000 vs MIN
Minnesota might have had a strong defense to start the season, but they now rank dead last in points allowed to opposing Receivers. That bodes very well for the Seattle offense, who travel to Minnesota in what should be an offensive battle…especially for a Seattle team fighting for a playoff spot.
JSN has seemingly overtaken the top receiver spot in Seattle, as DK Metcalf has battled injuries and top coverage. JSN now has 994 yards and five touchdowns on the season and has put up over 18 fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
This matchup is in Seattle with two potent offenses and meh defenses that should allow for plenty of scoring. If anything, Seattle will have to pass to keep up with Sam Darnold and the explosive Viking offense.
DJ Moore (Chicago Bears) – $5700 vs DET
The Bears are a mess (like the Jets), but get a beat-up Detroit Lions team that they just narrowly lost to a few weeks ago.
Now that’s not to say I think the Bears will go out there and destroy the Lions, but it at least bodes well for DJ Moore, who had a good fantasy day when these two teams last played.
Moore finished that 20-23 loss with eight catches for 97 yards and a touchdown on 16 targets. That very well could happen again if the Lions score early and often.
Moore now has at least six catches in each of his last five games, something that couldn’t be said earlier this season. The targets should be there, so let’s hope Caleb Williams and company can put on a decent show for the home crowd.
Tight Ends
Trey McBride (Arizona Cardinals) – $6200 @ CAR
Trey McBride has been Kyler Murray’s favorite target these last few weeks, and now faces a bad Carolina team that ranks 31st in points allowed to opposing Tight Ends.
McBride has put up double-digit fantasy points in all but two games (both came in the first Three Weeks), and is averaging 10 receptions over the last four games. McBride has been one of the best Tight Ends for both the NFL and fantasy this season, catching 89 passes for 938 yards.
His only issue? One touchdown catch.
Let’s hope he doubles that number against this bad Carolina defense.
Sam LaPorta (Detroit Lions) – $4700 @ CHI
If you pass on Jahmyr Gibbs this week, you could go with the Lions’ Tight End Sam LaPorta instead.
LaPorta has been a disappointment fantasy-wise after a huge rookie season, but the last three weeks he has seen an uptick in usage.
Last week against Buffalo, LaPorta caught seven passes for 111 yards. The week before that against Green Bay he had five catches for 55 yards. The week before that against Chicago he had two touchdowns. So he has been putting up numbers at least.
This week he gets Chicago again, and I don’t think the Lions will allow it to be close like last time. Losing Montgomery could also push Detroit to run the offense a bit differently, so LaPorta could be on the receiving end (pun intended?) of targets thanks to that.
Defense
Bills Defense – $3600 vs NE
Let’s be real: the Patriots’ offense is bad. They don’t put up many points, have really no “superstar” talent, and now face a red-hot Bills team…in Buffalo.
The Buffalo defense hasn’t necessarily been great recently, but you could excuse some of that because they have played some high-powered offenses the last few weeks (Detroit, LA Rams, San Francisco, KC).
This week is a bit different, and the Bills should easily shut down New England and coast to an easy victory.
