Fantasy Baseball Trade Targets For Week 13
It’s hard to believe that the final week of June is already here, but it’s not too late to improve your team through trades. As we head into Week 13 and approach the season’s halfway point, there are still plenty of good buy-low and sell-high candidates. Two buy-low candidates featured in last week’s article, Josh Naylor and Bailey Ober, both just had one of the best weeks of their year. Here are five more players you should be looking at on the trade market.
Buy-Low Candidates
Nolan Jones, OF, Rockies
Nolan Jones had one of the worst starts to 2024 of any player and followed it up by going on the injured list with a back injury at the end of April. He finally made his return on June 14 and has looked much better than he did pre-injury. He slashed just .170/.243/.277 in April compared to .333/.516/.476 in his first 8 games back. The biggest contributor to his poor performance was a sudden lack of plate discipline, as he had a 35.9% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate which made it pretty impossible to succeed. He has been an on-base machine as of late, walking 29% of the time with a strikeout rate of just 12.9%. It alleviates my fears that his slump will carry over and gives me hope that he can return to the same form he was at in the final half of 2023. It’s easy to forget that he was drafted as a no-doubt top-20 outfielder this preseason, and his trade value will only rise from here on out.
Ryan Pepiot, SP, Rays
Ryan Pepiot is another player who had his season halted due to injury, and his performance has been disappointing since returning from the injured list on May 22. His past three starts, in particular, have looked particularly rough, as he has given up 11 runs on 18 hits over 14 innings during that span. However, his xERA of 3.78 is much better than his actual ERA of 4.61 on the season, and he hasn’t lost his ability to strike batters out. His whiff rate is 30.3% and his strikeout rate is 27.8%, both ranking him close to the top 15% of the league. His most recent bad start was against the Pirates, but the two before that were against very tough offenses, the Braves and Orioles, and he actually struck out 9 in 6 innings against Baltimore. With so many pitchers having breakout seasons in terms of ERA and WHIP, the one stat that can truly differentiate a pitcher in terms of fantasy value is strikeouts. I will bet on Pepiot overcoming his bad luck and pitching like a top-40 pitcher for fantasy for the rest of the season.
Freddy Peralta, SP, Brewers
Speaking of strikeouts, there aren’t many that do it better than Freddy Peralta. His 32.6% whiff rate and 31% strikeout rate are 93rd and 92nd percentile, respectively. He looked great in his last start, tossing six shutout innings and striking out 8 against the Angels. However, you may still be able to get him at a discount thanks to his very rough June prior to that start. In 3 starts to begin the month, he pitched 13.2 innings and allowed 12 runs on 18 hits and 7 walks. His ERA sits at 4.06 and his WHIP is 1.17 for the season, which aren’t numbers you’d expect for a potential fantasy ace. However, his xFIP is 3.37 and I think he just had some unfortunate bad outings due to variance, rather than any kind of a skill decline. He is still a clear top-20 pitcher for fantasy with top-10 upside, but you could be able to acquire him for cheaper than that.
Sell-High Candidates
Daulton Varsho, OF, Blue Jays
Daulton Varsho hasn’t been an outstanding fantasy option by any means thanks to a .207 batting average, but he has still been usable, putting up 11 home runs, 8 stolen bases, 40 runs, and 35 runs batted in. However, he has been one of the biggest overperformers of the year when looking at his expected stats. His .167 xBA is truly bottom of the barrel, ranking in the 1st percentile, and his .306 xSLG (compared to .426 SLG) ranks in the 2nd percentile. He doesn’t hit the ball hard at all, with an 84.9 mph average exit velocity and a 30.5% hard-hit rate, and he also strikes out at a high rate of 25.2%. It’s never good when a batting average that’s barely over .200 is considered lucky, and it looks like his power could completely drop off, too. The outfield is still shallow, so he isn’t completely useless, but if you can get any type of solid hitter or pitcher in return right now, I would.
Jordan Hicks, SP, Giants
Jordan Hicks has also greatly overperformed his expected stats, with a 4.49 xERA compared to a 3.24 actual ERA. His most recent start was his worst of the season, allowing 5 runs in 4 innings against the Cardinals, so the sell-high window might be closing soon. The most detrimental thing to his fantasy value is his inability to pitch deep into games. He has pitched 6 innings or more just three times all year, and they all came in April. Not only does he rarely go 6 innings, but 3 of his last 4 starts ended before the 5th. So not only is he unusable in leagues that count quality starts, but he also has problems being efficient enough to even qualify for a win. It makes you wonder if he is better suited as a bullpen arm, after all. He is still pretty commonly rostered (62% Yahoo leagues), but he probably belongs on the waiver at this point. If you can get anything for him in a trade, now is the time.
