Fantasy Football Rookie Impact
With the 2019 NFL Draft now in the books, the rookie hype for the class is all too real. Each rookie is now expected to show up and become the mainstay on their new team. Except it doesn’t always work that way. The Seattle Seahawks spent a first-round pick on running back Rashaad Penny in 2018; they then proceeded to give former seventh-round draft pick veteran Chris Carson 247 carries. As the kids say it is indeed #RookieDraftSzn, but our objective here is to identify, evaluate and project veterans that could see impacts from rookies in 2019.
David Johnson – Arizona Cardinals
The 2019 Cardinals will be a better team on offense than their 2018 counterpart. Just consider all the additional weapons that Kliff Kingsbury now gets to build his offense with his quarterback of choice in Kyler Murray. Running backs tend to perform better when surrounded by a more mobile quarterback, so that’s a positive for Johnson. The team also added three wide receivers: Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler, and KeeSean Johnson to go along with second-year pro-Chrisitan Kirk. All of these moves were made to increase offense output which has a direct correlation to production by a fantasy running back. Running backs in the better offenses score more fantasy points. And offenses that performed well-below expectations one season are prime candidates for positive regression in the following season.
Dating back to 2010 teams that rank last in yards/game increase their production by an average of 19% the following season. In terms of points/game on average that increased by 64% the following season. With these numbers adjusted from 2018, Arizona projects to average 23.1 points/game and 287.5 yards/game in 2019. If we take the total market share of Johnson from 2018 and apply that to these new projections for 2019, were are left with a new projection. Remember, Johnson scored seven rushing touchdowns (43 points or 19% of the team’s total points) in 2018. If Johnson scores 19% of the Cardinals points in 2019 with the new total it projects Johnson to score 11.7 rushing touchdowns.
Corey Davis – Tennesse Titans
The addition of second-round pick A.J. Brown does not bold well for Davis. The Titans may not feel Davis can truly be a number one in their offense. Just look at their roster moves. They drafted Brown with high capital. They also signed Adam Humphries aggressively in free agency. Two guys that are going to work more out of the slot and force Davis more outside. This is bad because Davis has struggled to become a difference maker on the outside in his two years in the NFL. Marcus Mariota is not aggressive down the field as a passer. He only attempted 34 passes last season for more than 20 yards. Fantasy owners need to be concerned that Mariota’s lack of attempts outside down the field will just make Davis an inconsistent and unreliable target in 2019.
He will have to face all the tougher corners on a weekly basis and that is where he has struggled on film. The fact of the matter is that more time on the outside translates to less time in the slot, where Davis had his best flashes of production in 2018. Davis from the slot in 2018 led the Titans in receptions (27), targets (39), yards (301), and touchdowns (3).
Devonta Freeman – Atlanta Falcons
From a size and height standpoint, Ollison was one of the largest running backs in the class. It will be interesting to see if how the Falcons utilize Ollison; if they decide to give him a goalline back role or if he is used as a hybrid third-down back (50 receptions in college) to keep Freeman fresh throughout the season. Be wary that maybe Ito Smith is not the handcuff to own in Atlanta as he was just a fourth-round pick in 2018.
Jesse James – Pittsburgh Steelers
The consensus will be that T.J. Hockenson is the best tight end on the Detriot Lions after being selected in the first round. However, we have an extremely large sample size of top-tier rookie tight ends failing to produce their rookie seasons. Tight ends breakout at the NFL later in their careers, most often with new teams. Delanie Walker with the Titans for example. The main way that rookie tight ends can produce in fantasy is if they demand a high target share in the passing game. Not so sure that happens year one in Detroit with Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, Kerryon Johnson, and Theo Riddick in the mix.
Also, consider James signed for $10.5 million guaranteed in free agency suggests they want to keep two tight ends on the field. We saw at Iowa that Hockenson’s emergence opened things up for Noah Fant to be a successful receiver. Seems like a long shot, but when’s it all said and done James could provide the higher fantasy value than Hockenson. James will be just 25 years old entering his fifth season in the NFL in 2019.
Dante Pettis – San Franciso 49ers
Pettis has been a popular sleeper talked about this offseason and rightly so. From Weeks 12-15 Pettis on just 22 targets he ranked ninth in receiving yards (338), second in touchdowns (4), second in yards/receptions (19.9), and fifth in YAC/reception (8.5). However, the addition of Deebo Samuel may put on a damper on the ceiling for Pettis. Samuel’s skillset translates to him most likely being able to contribute quickly at the NFL level and it seems like the coaches are on board. Kyle Shanahan has been very impressed with Samuel, and it appears they plan to throw him right into the fire. Considering Shanahan coached Samuel at the Senior Bowl, he knows what he is capable of.
Samuel brings the attitude of an “alpha” to the 49ers wide receiver room. His name “Deebo” is after the dude in the movie Friday. Because he bullied kids growing up. As Ted Nguyen describes on Twitter, the 49ers’ west coast offense is perfect for Samuel.
Deebo Samuel is such a hard cover for defensive backs that he should find success in most systems, but if he’s put in an offense that likes to utilize option routes and has a QB who throws accurate short passes, he has the potential to be a star.
Read: https://t.co/BzoECH4KFI pic.twitter.com/s9ICDDIUl5
— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) April 27, 2019
