6 Breakout Fantasy Candidates for 2022

Breakout Fantasy Candidates

After several exciting and memorable playoff games, the off-season is finally here and there are plenty of exciting events to look forward to. The 2022 NFL Scouting Combine is just around the corner. Free agency is always fun to watch everything go down, and the 2022 NFL Draft is obviously the biggest event we’ve got to look forward to. 

When I look for breakout candidates, I’m usually looking at players who I expected a bigger season out of in the previous year or players who were injured. This group includes some disappointments from the 2021 season, some players that dealt with injuries, and just some players that I like and expect to take a step forward in general in 2022. 

Trevor Lawrence QB Jacksonville Jaguars

Not only was Trevor Lawrence a disappointment in 2021, but the entire Jacksonville Jaguars organization as a whole was just a mess. The drama that Urban Meyer brought with him and causes on and off the field was enough to drive anyone crazy. Lawrence finished his rookie season with 3,641 passing yards, 12 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. His best game of the year came in the final week against the Colts, a tough divisional matchup where everyone was banking on the Colts winning easily. Instead, Lawrence looked great throwing for 223 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He also had a 111.8 passer rating, which was his best of the year. Yes, it’s just one game, but this was a huge statement to make against a tough team that could’ve easily had a decent playoff run. 

This entire team needs a fresh start, and I’m still very confident in the talent that Lawrence has. It’s worth noting too that he lost Travis Etienne DJ Chark and even James Robinson towards the end of the year. The Jaguars have one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and I’m expecting Lawrence to take a big step forward in 2022. I also expect the Jaguars to target a wide receiver fairly early in the draft, potentially with their 2nd round pick, 33rd overall. Lawrence needs to step up and show that he’s the franchise quarterback that everyone expected him to be, and I think he takes a big step in that direction next year.

Javonte Williams RB Denver Broncos

One of the more popular young running backs has got to be Javonte Williams of the Denver Broncos. In 2021, he split the touches nearly evenly with veteran Melvin Gordon. Last year in the off-season, I broke this backfield down and predicted a 50/50 split or 60/40 split in either player’s favor. You can review that one here, but it ended up being almost spot-on. It was as close as you can get to a dead-even split, with the passing game favoring the rookie. 

Javonte Williams:

• 203 rushing attempts, 903 yards, and four touchdowns.
• 53 targets, 43 receptions, 316 receiving yards, and three touchdowns.
• Snap Share 49.9%
• Opportunity Share 50.5%
• Juke Rate 31.9%, 81 evaded tackles
• Yards Created per Attempt 3.41
• Fantasy points per opportunity 0.8

Melvin Gordon:

• 203 rushing attempts, 919 yards, and eight touchdowns.
• 39 targets, 28 receptions, 213 receiving yards, and two touchdowns. 
• Snap Share 52%
• Opportunity Share 51.5%
• Juke Rate 31.9%, 76 evaded tackles
• Yards Created Per Attempt 2.62
• Fantasy points per opportunity 0.81

Gordon is currently a free agent, and all of the latest reports indicate that Gordon has no intention of being a backup next year. His quote was that he does not want to “take a backseat” to Williams next year. This is going to cause some issues for the Broncos because Gordon will want to get paid, and the Broncos are probably very confident in what Williams has shown in his rookie campaign and are willing to give him more work. At this point, I’d bank on Gordon no longer being with Denver, and this is just going to skyrocket Williams’ value. All signs are pointing to a big breakout season out of Williams and I’m here for it. 

JK Dobbins RB Baltimore Ravens

Last year, a popular breakout candidate was the second-year running back JK Dobbins of the Baltimore Ravens. Unfortunately, his season was cut short as he tore his ACL in the final pre-season game of the 2021 season. This was pretty tough to watch as injuries during pre-season are always just brutal all around. Not only that, but Gus Edwards tore his ACL just a couple of weeks after this. Just an awful series of events for the Ravens all-around last year. That being said, Dobbins will now have every opportunity in front of him for a solid third-year breakout campaign. His ADP will likely end up being a bit lower this year compared to a year ago, just because of the injury. Dobbins is a very talented back and has all the opportunity to take over this Ravens backfield for good. This might be the cheapest he’ll be over the next couple of seasons.

Elijah Moore WR New York Jets

One of my favorite rookies from the 2021 rookie class was Elijah Moore out of Ole Miss. He can play out of the slot as well as on the outside, is very solid all-around, and versatile. This Jets offense has the chance to make some noise between Zach Wilson, Moore, and potentially the other second-year player on this offense is Michael Carter. Wilson looked awful at times but also showed some promise. He’ll be a fairly polarizing player heading into 2022, and Moore could be a big reason for Wilson’s future success in the NFL. 

Moore didn’t get much action in this first five weeks last year, seeing less than 50% of the offensive snaps twice and another game with zero snaps played. However, after the bye week in Week 6, Moore was on fire. From Weeks 7 through Week 13, he was the WR3 in PPR, behind just Cooper Kupp and Justin Jefferson. Unfortunately, his season was cut short with a quadricep injury, but Moore showed off what he could do and had a lot of fantasy players very excited about him. I’m banking on a nice step forward out of this entire Jets offense and Moore is a big part of it. 

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— The MMQB (@theMMQB) February 23, 2022

Jerry Jeudy WR Denver Broncos

After being touted as the best route runner in his class and still showing off his elite route-running skills, Jerry Jeudy has undoubtedly been a disappointment. In his first two seasons, he’s finished as the WR47 and the WR85 in PPR, despite playing in 26 games. A big part of his struggles can be chalked up to the lack of talent and inconsistency at the quarterback position in Denver. I’m fully expecting the Broncos to make a run for Aaron Rodgers. If however, this doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance they could still make a run at someone like Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. Either way, it’s evident that Denver wants to bring in a new quarterback, and this would offer a fresh start for a very young and talented wide receiver in Jeudy. Between the running backs, Courtland Sutton, Noah Fant, and Jeudy, there is plenty of talent on this Broncos offense that would make it an enticing destination for a quarterback to come to. 

Cole Kmet TE Chicago Bears

The last name on this list is the third-year tight end in Chicago, Kole Kmet. Kmet has shown flashes at times and is a talented young player, but has never put up consistent numbers, finishing as the TE20 and TE42 in his first two seasons. The Bears have dealt with struggles at the quarterback position, but I fully expect them to roll with Justin Fields and let him really take over this offense. Darnell Mooney was the best wide receiver for the Bears last year and Allen Robinson is clearly not interested in playing in Chicago anymore. I expect Robinson to sign elsewhere and while it’s been said for a few years now, it should be time for Jimmy Graham to hang it up. Kmet is just 22 years old and the way this offense has been, I think the Bears need to get him more involved. Kmet went the entire 2021 season without catching a touchdown and never surpassed more than 87 yards in a game. I expect Kmet to be someone you can get very late or off of the waiver wire in your redraft leagues next year, but he’s someone I like to take a big step forward and move into that borderline top-12 tight end range.