Melvin Gordon vs. Javonte Williams: Broncos Backfield Breakdown

Melvin Gordon vs. Javonte Williams – Who Should you Draft?

The Denver Broncos are coming off a fairly disappointing 2020 season under Vic Fangio who is heading into his third season as the head coach. After finishing the 2020 season 5-11, the Broncos are now 12-20 under Fangio with no playoff appearances. This will likely be a make-or-break season for Fangio and many of the coaches on this Broncos staff with a new General Manager in George Paton replacing John Elway.

Heading into the 2021 NFL Draft, the Denver Broncos were a popular landing spot for a rookie running back. A month before the NFL Draft, the Broncos released Phillip Lindsay, after an injury-riddled 2020 season. After entering the league in 2019 as an undrafted free agent, he has put up back-to-back 1,000+ rushing yard seasons and has two Pro Bowl selections. The release of Lindsay and Melvin Gordon’s age made this a very popular landing spot. Sure enough, the Broncos grabbed the rookie Javonte Williams out of North Carolina in the early second round, 35th overall. That makes him the third running back selected, behind just Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. Not only did the Broncos invest some hefty draft capital into Williams, but they even moved up to grab him.

The Broncos Training Camp is in full swing and it’s looking like a 50/50 split will likely be the case for 2021. Gordon has played 16 games just once in his six years in the NFL and after splitting with Lindsay in 2020, it looks like he’ll be splitting once again in 2021, this time with a young and talented rookie. At this point, I wouldn’t expect either one to run away with the starting role, it’ll more than likely be a bit of an annoying split for fantasy players.

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Javonte Williams (ADP 63, RB29)

Javonte Williams is an extremely physical runner with good size at 5’10, 220 pounds. He’s a complete back who can catch the ball out of the backfield, cut on a dime, and is very shifty for a running back of his size. He’s not just physical, he’s also got great vision, patience, and moves between the tackles well. He’s a former linebacker and is really one of the most physical running backs I’ve seen come out in recent years. He improved a ton from his Sophomore to his Junior season at North Carolina. He played two fewer games in 2020, racking up 1,140 rushing yards and 19 touchdowns, adding an additional 305 yards and three more touchdowns through the passing game, while improving his efficiency in every category.

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The upside is huge for Williams if he can take over the lead role in this rushing attack. I expect they’ll have a fairly even split this year, making both running backs a bit frustrating for fantasy football purposes. If Gordon ends up missing time, which we know he typically misses at least a few games, Williams could end up being a very valuable player for your fantasy teams. If you’re into dynasty fantasy football leagues, t’s also worth noting that Williams is two years younger than both Najee Harris and Travis Etienne. Regardless of whether Gordon is in Denver for another couple of years or not, Williams is going to get his share and ultimately, produce for your fantasy football teams. It may not be until later in the season, but I expect Williams to get a slight edge in overall touches.

Melvin Gordon (ADP 70.2, RB31)

Veteran Melvin Gordon joined the Denver Broncos in 2020 and despite what may have seemed like a bad year, he quietly finished as the RB14 in PPR scoring. While he did finish as a high-end RB2, he averaged 13.2 PPR points per game, good for 25th for all running backs. He ended up with 986 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns. His 13.2 PPR points per game is the lowest he’s had his entire career outside of his rookie year where he didn’t get a large workload. Gordon also caught the fewest passes he’s ever caught in his career in the NFL with 32 grabs on 44 targets. Gordon turned 28 years old back in April, and he’s on the wrong side of his 20’s that you want to be, historically, that you want your running backs to be for fantasy purposes.

While I do expect Williams to eventually take over, that doesn’t mean Gordon isn’t going away by any means. Gordon is an excellent pass blocker and has always been more than capable in the rushing game as well as receiving out of the backfield. He’s going to get his share of work, despite how he may have looked or how he measured up according to our Advanced Efficiency metrics. Here are a few notable numbers showing where he measured up in 2020:

Yards created per attempt: 1.28 (Tied for 25th in the NFL)
Yards created: 317 (15th)
Juke rate: 23.9% (Tied for 19th)
Fantasy points per attempt: (Tied for 36th)
Fantasy points per opportunity: 0.77 (Tied for 37th)
Breakaway rate: 4.2% (Tied for 21st)

Dynasty Outlook

Briefly looking at this backfield from a dynasty perspective, there are a few things to note. Gordon is obviously getting old and we’ve already seen his fantasy production and efficiency start to drop. If you can capitalize on his value, I’m all for selling high. There’s got to be a few owners in your leagues who still think he’s going to be a nice RB2 and might pay well if they’re winning now. That being said, don’t sell him just for the asking of selling him. If you’re set up to win now and don’t get any good offers, just ride it out. Williams won’t be cheap by any means, but I’m very confident in his talent and potential future in the league that I’m okay with paying up a bit to get him now, or drafting him in your dynasty rookie drafts with a high first-round pick if you haven’t drafted yet. In deeper leagues, Mike Boone has always been an intriguing player but has been buried on the depth chart in Minnesota since 2018. He is dirt cheap and someone worth stashing.

2021 Outlook

The Denver Broncos have been in the bottom 10 in the NFL in total offensive yards in each of the past two seasons. Last year they were 13th in total offensive rushing yards, improving slightly from 2019 to 2020. The Broncos averaged 27.6 rush attempts per game in 2020, which comes out to roughly 470 rush attempts over a 17 game season. Last year Drew Lock averaged 44 rushing attempts over the 13 games that he played, while the former Carolina Panthers quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater, ran 53 times in 15 games. Neither of these two are really known for their rushing ability and I’d expect maybe 60 or so attempts from whoever ends up starting at the quarterback position. That leaves just over 400 rush attempts to be split up by the running backs if we go off of last year’s attempts.

Both Gordon and Williams are plenty capable of catching the ball out of the backfield, and Gordon’s experience and familiarity with the offense will likely give him the edge to start the season off. Not to mention his experience and solid pass-blocking abilities. Pat Shurmur is back-calling plays for this offense and Denver hasn’t had the same play-caller for two consecutive years since 2016 with Rick Dennison. This offense has the potential to be very explosive. Between these two backs, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, and Noah Fant, there’s plenty of potential.

If I were to really dig into projections for the Broncos in 2020, I’d have more exact numbers here, but I expect both Gordon and Williams to get roughly 150-175 attempts each this year. I would not be shocked either way if it’s a 60/40 split favoring either back. You’re looking at about 10 rushing attempts per game for both of these guys, which is not exactly ideal for fantasy purposes for either of them. Gordon saw 44 targets last year, which was the least he’s seen since his rookie campaign. Another name to keep an eye on as someone who will get some touches is Boone. Don’t expect him to cut into the workload for the two main backs too much though. Overall, I believe Gordon is going to do enough that I likely won’t own much of Williams in redraft leagues this year based on his ADP. That being said, I’d be happy to grab either one of them if they fall to a nice value and use either one as a Flex option.