Golf Betting Tips
The PGA Tour makes its way from Tennessee last week to North Carolina this week for the Wyndham Championship. This event has been a long-standing tradition on the PGA Tour with it beginning way back in 1938, and the course at Sedgefield has hosted multiple stints during this tournament’s existence including since 2008. We are back to a cut-based event this week where the top 65 plus ties advance to round 3 and round 4 on the weekend, and there are 156 golfers who are vying to become the 2021 champ.
There’s “only” $6.4M available to be won this week, the winner receives $1.152M and also receives 500 FedEx Cup points which are getting more and more valuable as the playoffs begin next week, and just the top 125 point leaders will make it into the first leg. The Wyndham Championship is played at Sedgefield Country Club as previously mentioned, it’s a 7,127-yard track, is a par 70, and the greens are the same as last week’s – Bermudagrass. The average winning score at this tournament over the last ten years is -19.1, and there’s no reason to think that the winning score won’t be around -21 or -22 as one of those has been the winning score over the past five years. The record for this tournament on the Sedgefield course is -22 and is held by both J.T. Poston and Henrik Stenson in 2019 and 2017, respectively. Put your money on golfers this week who are accurate drivers, make birdies in bunches, are strong at putting on Bermudagrass surfaces, are solid from tee to green, and are good with wedges around the green.
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Questions I have regarding the Wyndham Championship as it relates to betting on players:
1. Do the players on the bubble hold extra promise this week? Be sure to look over the FedEx Cup standings to see which players are hovering around the 125 marker since they should be super motivated to perform this week and get into the playoffs next week. Rickie Fowler, Nate Lashley, Adam Scott, Patrick Rodgers, Camilo Villegas, Chesson Hadley, and others are hovering around that key 125th place ranking.
2. If a prominent player has a poor opening round will he try to battle back to make the cut, or call it a week and focus on the first leg of the playoffs instead? Tough question to answer right now but I certainly think we could see some players pull out and turn their attention to the playoffs.
3. Will another scrub win this year? The last two years have seen Jim Herman and J.T. Poston win the Wyndham Championship, will another one do it again this week or will the likes of Simpson or another star step up – time will tell.
Below you will find two players from each of four different betting tiers (from DraftKings Sportsbook) to win outright, these are the golfers that I like the most for this week as fantasy golf bets, plus a golfer in each tier that I would stay clear from. I would also advise you to throw in some top 5, top 10, and even top 20 or 30 bets for the long shots as well to hedge against your outright bet(s).
Quick Links:
+2500 and lower
Webb Simpson (+1000) – The way this local gentleman plays this tournament they should call it the Webbham Championship as Simpson has 3rds or 2nds here over the last four years, he had a T6 in 2015, a T5 in 2014, won in 2011, and has other high finishes, as well. If there ever was a horse for a course at a tournament it’s Simpson at the Wyndham Championship. He has been decent lately and has had a good season for the most part, but this week he should be exceptional once again. I think betting him to win, to finish top 5, and to finish top 10 is perfectly acceptable.
Hideki Matsuyama (+1200) – Matsuyama wasn’t really having a very good season until he won The Masters in April and he storms into this week on the heels of a T4 at the Olympics and a runner-up finish last week at the WGC event where he gained at least 8 strokes in approach, ball-striking, tee-to-green, and total. He has been hit or miss at this tournament in his six starts at it, but when making the cut he has three top 15’s including a T3 five years ago. I like him as a top 10 play or a top 20 bet if you want to be a bit more guarded with your money.
Avoid: Patrick Reed (+2000) – Reed won here in 2013 but only has one top 10 since – he hasn’t been his usual self lately with just one top 10 in his last eight starts and his second-best finish during that stretch is a T19. I think it’s a good idea to avoid betting him until he finds his form again and isn’t so reliant on just his putter and around the green play.
+2600 to +5000
Will Zalatoris (+2800) – Zalatoris’ season will be over this week unless he has a huge performance and wins it all. I don’t think he will take the cake but I can see him pressing hard for his first PGA Tour win and he is coming off a T8 last week at the WGC where he gained strokes in all of the major stat categories. It looks like his injury troubles are behind him now, and even if he doesn’t make the playoffs this season, he has a bright future ahead. I think betting him to finish top 10 or top 20 makes a lot of sense this week.
Si Woo Kim (+4000) – He plays his best on tracks that he likes and he certainly has an admiration for this one as he won here five years ago, was T3 last year, and had a T5 two years ago. He had a terrible week last week but I can see him rebounding well, and he’s due to pop again soon. I think you can bet him to finish top 5, top 10, or top 20 this week, depending on how much risk and reward you’re prepared to embrace.
Avoid: Sungjae Im (+3000) – Im had a T9 here last year and a T6 two years ago, but he only has one top 10 in his last fifteen starts and that was a T8 at a fairly weak field event in Detroit – the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He could have another top 10 finish here this week, but I don’t like his prospects based on recent results, and he’s usually quite good with his short game but he lost over 6 strokes last week to finish T46.
+5100 to +10000
Jhonattan Vegas (+6000) – Vegas has very nice looking stats when you take a gander at his off the tee, approach, ball-striking, and tee-to-green play since early May. During that span, he has two runner-ups, a T9, and two other top 16’s. This course hasn’t been too kind to him over the years but he did have a top 10 on it and I can see another one blowing his way this week, so bet him that way, or for a top 20 if you want to be a bit more cautious.
Mito Pereira (+6000) – A 3-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour this season has Pereira ready for prime time on the PGA Tour starting next season. He’s not waiting until then though to perform at a high level as he has two top 6’s over his last three events played on the PGA Tour, he had a T4 at the Olympics two weeks ago, and has five straight top 39’s. It’s up to you to bet him to finish top 10, top 20, or top 30 this week, but I think a top 20 bet is certainly very attractive.
Avoid: Justin Rose (+7000) – There isn’t much to like about Rose’s season in 2020-2021 as he only has two top 10’s, has five missed cuts on the campaign in 15 stroke-play starts, and has lost strokes in approach in four out of his last five tournaments played. He missed the cut here last year, and I think he is heading for a similar fate again this week unless he putts the lights out.
+11000 and higher
Jim Herman (+15000) – Herman is the defending champ at this tournament and should come into this week with some confidence since he has four top 28’s in his last five starts. He won last year after having three missed cuts and a 77th in five starts leading up to the Wyndham Championship, so he’s in a much better position this year. I don’t expect him to defend his title, but I can see a top 20 or a top 30 and that’s how you can bet him this week.
Roger Sloan (+11000) – Sloan finished T39 here two years ago and had a T31 last year – I think this year he makes the leap into the top 30 and that’s how I would go about betting him this week. He is coming off a season-best T6 at the Barracuda Championship last week, had a T16 in the start before, and has four top 31’s in his last five starts.
Avoid: Aaron Wise (+13000) – Wise has good-looking stats recently but his putter has been absolutely atrocious lately and it has led to a T66, a T69, and a missed cut over his last three starts. If his flat stick is half decent this week then he could have a good result, but he missed the cut here a year ago and had a T48 in 2019 – expect something similar this year once again.
Be sure to do lots of research and due diligence on each player before parting with your hard-earned money, and all the best in having a profitable week!
