Which 49ers’ Running Back Should We Target in Drafts?

49ers RB Fantasy Breakdown

When we hear the name Shanahan, we often think of running backs and offense. Last time, we discussed the Broncos backfield, which typically gave opportunities to two primary running backs. However, the 49ers have 3-4 backs with shared touches over the past few seasons. Even back in 2017, when Carlos Hyde totaled over 1,200 yards, Matt Breida earned some opportunities. 

We’ll look at the team trends, player analysis, and relevant data to figure out which 49ers’ running back we should target in redraft leagues. Both Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert have an ADP inside the top-30 at the running back position. That said, we’ll focus on Sermon and Mostert with some highlights to Wayne Gallman and a couple of the other backups. 

2020 49ers’ Running Back Review

Back in 2020, both Jeff Wilson Jr. (No. 18) and Raheem Mostert (No. 27) ranked inside the top-30 amongst running backs in fantasy points per game. In 2019, only one 49er running back finished inside the top-30 in Raheem Mostert (No. 29). However, context matters, and that doesn’t paint the whole picture. In 2019, Mostert played nearly every game but didn’t “take over” until late in the season (Week 13-17). I put the term “take over” in quotes because Mostert only garnered an opportunity share over 60% twice. During those five weeks, Mostert flashed RB1 numbers three times. 

We know they efficiently run the ball with someone like Raheem Mostert that averaged 5.6 Yards Per Touch (No. 8) given their system and offensive line. They also have the touchdown scoring machine in Jeff Wilson with ten total touchdowns yet only a 40.8% Opportunity Share (No. 41). However, we’ll note that Wilson scored seven of those ten touchdowns in three games, so we expect a bit of regression there. The 49ers added former Giants’ backup Wayne Gallman and then added Trey Sermon in the third round of the 2021 NFL Draft. 

Let’s look at the past team trends, then dive into the player analysis to figure out which 49ers’ running back we should target in redraft leagues. We want to be careful and not overly invest in this backfield to clog up roster spots with the potential to draft or roster the wrong player. 

49ers’ Running Back Trends

Interestingly, we find the 49ers’ leaning a bit more pass-heavy in terms of yardage. That makes some sense given the running back options they had in the past. However, from a passing/rushing attempts perspective, 2018 and 2020 look almost identical, with the difference being total attempts. Meanwhile, in 2019, the 49ers totaled more rushing attempts than passing attempts in a season with Jimmy Garoppolo fully healthy. That same season, the 49ers’ reached the Super Bowl, so maybe there is some validity to their success. 

A brief overview of the 49ers’ backfield in 2019 and 2020. Context matters with these RBs, but which 49ers’ RB do we want in 2021? Of course, I don’t have Trey Sermon listed here, but he seems like a popular choice. #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/WXxZdoUF5n

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) July 13, 2021

Let’s dig deeper and see how the running back share shook out amongst the 49ers running backs. When we analyze the individual players, we know context matters, and we highlight that when applicable. 

49ers’ Team Trends

Back in 2019, the 49ers had the 4th best Game Script, meaning they often played with a lead. That said, it’s no surprise to see that they ranked second to last in Team Pass Plays Per Game yet ranked 2nd in Team Run Plays Per Game. 

With less rushing volume, players like Raheem Mostert regressed in terms of efficiency, but not significantly. Outside of Jerick McKinnon in 2020, the 49ers didn’t target their running backs very much. That seems like somewhat of a trend when looking back to 2018 and 2019 as well. Their offense typically runs through George Kittle and one primary receiver. The added wrinkle of how Trey Lance fares in training camp and when the 49ers give him a chance adds to the variance. 

Top-2 49ers’ Running Backs

Based on early Underdog ADP, the top-2 49ers’ running backs include Trey Sermon and Raheem Mostert. Both running backs have an ADP about 12 picks apart. Trey Sermon has a 75.3 ADP as RB27, and Mostert has an ADP of 88.6 as RB30. The three other backup running backs have an ADP past pick 200. 

Trey Sermon (RB27 – 75.3 ADP)

At Oklahoma, Trey Sermon played three seasons before transferring to Ohio State. Throughout his four years in college, Sermon totaled 3,432 yards on 503 touches with 29 total touchdowns. Sermon averaged 6.82 Yards Per Touch with an 8.4% target share (68th-percentile) in his final college season.

He isn’t a speedster with a 4.66 40-yard dash with a 91.2 Speed Score (31st-percentile). However, Sermon’s 125.4 Burst Score (81st-percentile) and 11.14 (79th-percentile) Agility Score stands out as above-average. Even Sermon’s 16.5% College Dominator (22nd-percentile) doesn’t wow us, but he often shared rushing opportunities with mobile quarterbacks and other running backs. Notable names include Kyler Murray, Jalen Hurts, Rodney Anderson, Kennedy Brooks, and Rhamondre Stevenson. 

When we look at the other backfield options, not including Raheem Mostert, we have Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman, JaMycal Hasty, and Elijah Mitchell. Trey Sermon looks like Mostert’s primary competition, and fantasy managers agree based on ADP. 

Raheem Mostert (RB30 – 88.6 ADP)

At this point, we know the 49ers’ lead running back shares touches and opportunities. In 2019, Raheem Mostert shared opportunities yet provided efficient production. Sure it’s an arbitrary cutoff for 10+ carries per game, but he is typically efficient when the 49ers feed Mostert the rock.

Mostert’s efficiency regressed, with 6.3 yards per touch (No. 4) in 2019 to 5.6 yards per touch (No. 8). The same happened in Production Premium, which is an overall efficiency metric. Mostert ranked 3rd with a +35.6 Production Premium in 2019, which dropped to +7.1 (No. 21) in 2020. Again, he still provided efficient production, but it regressed slightly. 

Part of the reason for the dip in efficiency involves a lower Run Blocking Efficiency (RBE) evidenced by a 79.0 RBE (No. 33) compared to an 89.8 RBE (No. 6) in 2019. However, Mostert still ranked highly in yards created per touch with 1.66 (No. 12) in 2020, down slightly from 1.89 (No. 6) in 2019. Overall, Mostert is an explosive runner with efficient production, which means he can thrive in a backfield with shared opportunities. 

Other 49ers’ Running Backs

Other notable 49ers’ running backs include Jeff Wilson Jr., Wayne Gallman, and to a lesser extent – JaMycal Hasty and Elijah Mitchell. With Mitchell, he’s more of a dynasty sleeper unless the entire 49ers’ backfield suffers a ton of injuries. However, if it came down to that point, keep Mitchell on your radar with a 107.3 Speed Score (86th-percentile) and 127.8 Burst Score (88th-percentile).

Wilson scored ten total touchdowns with a 40.8% Opportunity Share (No. 41), and seven of those touchdowns game in three games. In late May, Wilson suffered a torn meniscus that required surgery. Wilson expects to miss 4-6 months, which means he will return in October or early November. That makes him a difficult player to roster, especially in shallower leagues with no injured reserve spots. In deeper leagues, Elijah Mitchell is the dart throw to take. However, he’s someone fantasy managers will stash and churn throughout the season. 

Which 49ers’ Running Back Should We Target in Drafts?

It primarily comes down to Raheem Mostert and Trey Sermon. Maybe I prefer the “known” player in Mostert, but Sermon is receiving a ton of buzz in the fantasy football community that’s seeping into my views. I typically lean on an analytical-focused approach, so take this with a grain of salt for Sermon’s comparisons. Based on the RotoViz Prospect Comparision Tool, running backs that matched with Sermon include Cade Carney and Alonzo Smith. 

If you asked who, I did the same. However, given the 49ers’ offensive scheme seems to favor running backs, I’m overlooking those comparisons. Both Mostert and Sermon should provide efficient rushing production. However, temper expectations about their pass-catching opportunities. 

One other note – both Mostert and Sermon suffered injuries in the past. Mostert dealt with knee and high ankle sprain injuries the past two seasons. Meanwhile, Sermon dealt with a knee and shoulder injury in the past. We’re not calling them injury-prone. However, we’re noting their history. 

Early in July, 49ers beat writer Matt Barrows noted the team wants to run the ball 500 times. In 2020, totaled 437 rushing attempts, 498 in 2019, and 423 in 2018. That should bode well for the running game, assuming it’s effective. 

Although I didn’t highlight Wayne Gallman much, he’s worth taking a flier on later in drafts. In a seven-game stretch (Week 7 – 14) last year, Gallman averaged 15.1 carries, 2.7 targets, 78.9 total yards, and 15 fantasy points per game. He provided three RB1 weeks and three RB2 weeks with one RB3 week. Fantasy managers will want to select one or two running backs from this team, but they may not provide receiving production for PPR leagues.