Who Will Matthew Stafford Favor in Rams Offense? Could Everyone Get a Boost?

Matthew Stafford Fantasy Forecast 2021

One of the biggest trades this offseason happened when the Los Angeles Rams dealt quarterback Jared Goff to Detroit in exchange for veteran gunslinger Matthew Stafford. Throughout the years, Stafford has captivated audiences with his late-game heroics, often delivering huge passes with methodical precision in the waning moments to execute comeback wins time and time again. Stafford is now 33 years old and entering his 13th season without a playoff victory and will need to acclimate to his new home in L.A., where he will be led by the Rams’ fiery young head coach, Sean McVay, who is only two years older and regarded as one of the most innovative and successful offensive play-callers in the NFL. Can Stafford and McVay unlock the full potential of the Rams offense in 2021? If so, could every skilled player get a boost in their usage and production? Let’s take a look at the data to find out if the Rams can become one of the premier fantasy offenses in 2021. 

Jared Goff vs. Matthew Stafford in 2020

Questions surrounded Sean McVay when he opted to start quarterback John Wolford over Jared Goff against the Arizona Cardinals in the final week of the 2020 regular season. Wolford didn’t find the end zone and threw an interception but finished with 231 passing yards and carried six times for 56 yards in a decisive 18-7 win that sent the Rams on the road to face the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC Wild Card game. McVay kept Wolford, a 25-year old rookie who played collegiate ball at Wake Forest, under center to begin the Wild Card but he was severely injured on a rushing attempt during the first quarter. This forced his hand and Goff returned as the quarterback, managing to avoid turnovers and completing nine passes for 155 yards and a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. The Rams defensive unit was responsible for creating momentum to regain control of the game, forcing a pick-six and then responding on the next offensive drive with a Cam Akers touchdown to close the first half up 20-13. Goff played a clean game and improved his completion percentage against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Round, going 21-of-27 for 174 yards and a touchdown to rookie wide receiver Van Jefferson. However, Goff’s lack of mobility led to four sacks and the team’s Super Bowl aspirations were snuffed out after the Packers’ defense shut them out in the fourth quarter. 

Despite his shortcomings in the biggest moments, Goff had the ninth-most passing attempts at 552, compared to Matthew Stafford’s 528 attempts. Goff only managed 20 touchdowns and threw 13 interceptions despite having better offensive weapons surrounding him throughout the season. Stafford, playing most of the 2020 season without alpha wideout Kenny Golladay, threw 26 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a weaker offensive line and a mediocre running game thanks to the emergence of rookie running back D’Andre Swift. The most encouraging statistic for Stafford solidifying himself as a weekly QB1 in 2021 is that he outperformed Goff while dealing with a 77.8 percent protection rate, which ranked 34th amongst all quarterbacks in 2020. Meanwhile, Goff struggled with a markedly better 86.7 percent protection rate, which will allow Stafford to stand in the cleanest pockets of his lengthy 13-year career. Keep in mind, Stafford had a much worse coaching staff with former Lions head coach Matt Patricia failing to build a defensive unit or a competent supporting cast, wasting three years of Stafford’s prime. He is among the grittiest players in the league and is positioned to greatly benefit from a change of scenery on an upgraded offense with better coaching. 

Personnel Changes

Running Backs

The recent Achilles tear suffered by the Rams’ second-year running back Cam Akers has taken a lot of wind out the team’s proverbial sails. Akers overtook the backfield in the final quarter of the season, seeing 20+ attempts in three of his final four games, including at least three targets or more in his final three games of the 2020 regular season. Third-year running back Darrell Henderson becomes the Rams’ RB1 as a result of the season-ending injury Akers suffered during a workout in recent days. Henderson is only 23 years old but received a substantial workload as the Rams’ starting running back across 11 starts in 2020. Ironically, Akers also played in 11 games due to developing within the system and also dealing with injuries mid-season. As a result, Henderson averaged more points per opportunity (0.80) than Akers (0.64) and had a higher breakaway run percentage (4.3%) which is defined as total carries of 15 or more yards. Henderson is a couple of inches shorter than Akers and 10 pounds lighter but has the quick burst and elusiveness required to operate within the zone-blocking scheme used in McVay’s offense. Until or unless the Rams sign another running back via the limited pool of free-agent options, it appears that Henderson will be given a full workload in a high-powered offense, as seventh-round rookie Jake Funk does not threaten his usage in any significant way. Unfortunately, the Rams’ offense neglects to utilize their running backs in the passing game. Henderson averaged a lowly 6.9 percent target share per snap, ranking between Salvon Ahmed and Wayne Gallman. As the RB23 in half-PPR with an ADP of 53, Henderson’s stock has taken a massive surge, disappointing fantasy managers hoping to acquire him in the back-end of drafts. They will now be forced to pay a premium in the fifth round to draft Henderson, as he has ascended ADP charts and now sits between Myles Gaskin (RB22) and Kareem Hunt (RB24) in half-PPR. Henderson is one of the more intriguing running back prospects entering 2021 but the Rams lean on their wide receivers to move the chains through the air, allocating 12.1 targets per snap percentage or higher to their top three wide receivers. I’d prefer to draft Hunt, Mike Davis, or Chase Edmonds since all three of these running backs can be acquired later in drafts and will be more involved in the passing game.

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods are the keys to a motion-heavy, pass-centric offense ran by head coach Sean McVay. Woods had better production in 2020, doubling Kupp’s touchdown total (6) despite sharing a nearly identical target share. Both wideouts saw at least 125 targets and had double-digit red zone targets but Kupp had an 80.7 percent snap share versus Woods’ 90.6 percent snap share, which took away valuable opportunities that played a role in his touchdown regression. Plummeting from 10 touchdowns to only three, Kupp slid from a WR4 finish in 2019 to a WR27 finish in 2020. Meanwhile, Woods finished as the WR13 despite being drafted after Kupp, making him the coveted value player on the Rams last season. Woods saw a greater average depth of target (7.1 yards) but Kupp actually saw more targets per snap when he was on the field. Both players mirror each other’s skill set and are often used in pre-snap motion to displace defenders either as a decoy or as an elusive, quick-twitch ball carrier. The additions of veteran speedster DeSean Jackson and second-round rookie wide receiver Tutu Atwell add even more speed to the Rams’ wide receiving corps. However, Van Jefferson could be the most valuable wide receiver amongst all Rams wideouts, at least from a fantasy perspective. He is entering his second year and was only given five targets or more in three regular-season games last season. Jefferson then went 6-of-7 for 46 yards and a touchdown against the Packers in the NFC Divisional game, showing his development against opposing defenders and within McVay’s system. Jefferson is currently going undrafted as the WR122 but is set up for immense success and could obliterate his ADP if he receives a similar target share to the 81 targets Josh Reynolds saw as the team’s WR3 in 2020. 

Tight Ends

The departure of former Rams’ tight end Gerald Everett to Seattle will do wonders for Tyler Higbee’s return to top-tier production in 2021. Higbee saw a steep decline in targets, going from 89 targets in 2019 to 60 targets in 2020. Everett stayed on virtually the same workload that he saw in 2019 (60 targets) but he actually saw two more targets (62) than Higbee last season, reducing Higbee’s total yardage output by over 200 yards. Fantasy managers were burned by the sixth-year tight end’s TE18 finish last season after his breakout year in 2019, which has created great value for those managers willing to punt on tight end until the last few picks in fantasy drafts. His ADP is slowly creeping up as training camp gets underway but he’s going to see a resurgence under Matthew Stafford, who relied on T.J. Hockenson enough to yield 13.2 targets per snap percentage, higher than Robert Woods (12.9%) and Van Jefferson (12.1%). Higbee saw just 7.4 targets per snap percentage with Goff under center in 2020, while Everett saw a notable uptick with 9.7 percent of targets per snap. Higbee is my favorite late-round tight end over others such as Robert Tonyan or Irv Smith Jr. due to being featured in a more aggressive passing scheme and getting increased opportunity as the primary tight end on a high-octane offense. 

Coaching Staff

The loss of passing game coordinator Shane Waldron to the division rival Seattle Seahawks could impact the way Sean McVay calls his offense in 2021. Particularly after the Cam Akers injury and building a deeper stable of wide receivers, McVay could feature more nine routes and other deep routes than he’s done in past seasons while continuing to mix in the jet sweeps and screen passes he is notorious for using. The offense will have a lot of eye candy and pre-snap motion to distract defenders, allowing Matthew Stafford to funnel the majority of his targets to Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Tyler Higbee. This warrants the following question: can the Rams produce two WR1s in 2021? 

Can the Rams Produce Two WR1s?

Two teams produced a pair of wide receivers inside of the top-12 in half-PPR formats in 2020. The Seattle Seahawks had DK Metcalf (WR5) and Tyler Lockett (WR11) pack a lethal one-two punch with their opposing size and style, while the Minnesota Vikings saw Justin Jefferson (WR6) and Adam Thielen (WR7) both finish in the top seven thanks to the accuracy of quarterback Kirk Cousins and a bad defense. Both situations had a young wide receiver develop into an alpha target (Metcalf and Jefferson) within their offense, while the veterans (Lockett and Thielen) used their skill set and situational awareness to rack up double-digit touchdowns throughout the regular season. Don’t forget, in 2019, Kupp finished as the WR4 and Woods finished as the WR17 with a less talented quarterback at the time. Stafford’s grittiness and hunger for a playoff win will certainly be a factor in what figures to be one of the most potent offenses in the league this season. Van Jefferson could even produce a solid WR3 season alongside Kupp and Woods if given the 80-90 targets I project him to receive. After all, the Rams did rank ninth-highest in passing attempts during 2020. In a backfield that lacks depth and continues to have a less mobile quarterback under center, drafting either Woods or Kupp in the fourth round gives fantasy managers mid-WR2 value with WR1-level production. The entire offense has something to prove and is constructed to score easily and often through their two star wideouts in Kupp and Woods. Avoid mid-season regret and get a piece of the Rams passing offense as often as possible when drafting. I predict that the Los Angeles Rams will be one of several teams to produce two WR1s in 2021.