J.K. Dobbins Fantasy Forecast 2021
There are so many reasons and data points that suggest Baltimore Ravens’ second-year running back J.K. Dobbins is poised for a breakout season. A lot of fantasy managers find themselves nervous about the prospect of drafting Dobbins in a run-centric offense that has used the elusiveness of quarterback Lamar Jackson and Gus Edwards to form a hybrid running-back-by-committee (RBBC) rushing attack in the past. Massive concerns surround Ravens’ OC Greg Roman and his willingness to include their running backs more within the passing game. As PPR formats become the new norm for leagues, receptions carry extra value, which means drafting a running back that primarily operates as a ball carrier and not a receiver, such as Josh Jacobs, ensures less value and lowers his ceiling.
Will J.K. Dobbins ascend to RB1 territory during his second year in Baltimore? Let’s see how he maximized his opportunities through an elite skillset while adapting to a full-time role in his rookie campaign.
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Restricting the Rook
Despite all of the offseason hype surrounding Dobbins after he was drafted out of the Ohio State University as the 55th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft, Roman, and head coach John Harbaugh eased Dobbins into the offense, limiting him to single-digit carries for six consecutive weeks until he was given 15 carries against the Steelers, which he turned into 113 yards with a 7.53 YPC average. Keep in mind this was against a Pittsburgh defense that finished 2020 ranked third-best in points allowed and yards allowed. It was an impressive performance that seemed to convince the coaching staff he was ready to see an increased workload, as he only saw single-digit carries (5) only once after his breakout game against the Steelers in Week 8.
The 22-year old Dobbins had the fifth-highest juke rate (30.9%) amongst all running backs, not just rookies, in 2020. When given the opportunity, Dobbins ranked third-best in yards created per rushing attempt (2.18) and was the undisputed best at his rate of breakaway runs (8.2%) which counts the total amount of carries that surpassed 15 or more yards. Dobbins possesses some of the most elite traits the modern NFL running back needs, so why was he held to just 24 targets across 15 games? Baltimore totaled the second-fewest targets to their running backs (62) and the least amount of targets (221) to their wide receivers. Whether or not this was due to the regression we saw with Jackson’s indecisiveness in the pocket, 24 targets are inexcusable, particularly with an elite young running back that averaged 9.1 yards per reception in his three years at Ohio State. Instead of a healthy target share in Baltimore, Dobbins was relegated to 5.3 targets per snap percentage, seventh on the team behind oft-neglected wide receivers Devin Duvernay and Miles Boykin. For perspective, Adrian Peterson averaged slightly more at 5.7 targets per snap percentage. Harbaugh and Roman will not make the same usage mistake again in 2021, especially with a revamped offensive line and receiving corps.
Most rushing yards per attempt last season (RBs)
♨️ J.K. Dobbins – 6.0
♨️ Nick Chubb – 5.6
♨️ Aaron Jones – 5.5
♨️ Derrick Henry – 5.4 pic.twitter.com/MRBAB6f9BU— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 4, 2021
Ravens Redesign
Let’s start with the most important aspect of the Baltimore Ravens offense, which is the offensive line. It received a complete redesign through free agency and the 2021 NFL Draft, trading Orlando Brown Jr. to the Kansas City Chiefs and replacing him with former Pittsburgh Steelers veteran tackle Alejandro Villanueva at right tackle. Ronnie Stanley returns from injury, which had given Brown the opportunity to become the Ravens’ starting left tackle, only to request a trade once hearing Baltimore planned on moving him back to right tackle. The interior of the line saw its biggest upgrade, drafting 6’6″, 354-pound guard Ben Cleveland out of the University of Georgia. His massive frame fits perfectly within Baltimore’s RPO-styled run-centric scheme, so expect Dobbins to have even bigger running lanes to hit between the tackles in 2021. Add in ninth-year veteran guard Kevin Zeitler at right guard and you’ve got quite a stacked offensive line that will seal blocks and pulls to benefit Dobbins throughout the season.
Three prominent wide receivers were also drafted or signed in Baltimore this offseason. Most notably, veteran wideout Sammy Watkins left the Chiefs and signed a one-year deal to provide experience and a steady target for Lamar Jackson to rely upon. A pair of draft picks in the first and fourth rounds saw Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace land in the Ravens’ receiving corps, adding much-needed depth and size to a team that leaned on tight end Mark Andrews with 14.7 targets per snap percentage to lead all Ravens skilled players in 2020. The presence of a receiver like Bateman will do a lot to stretch the field vertically for Lamar Jackson and J.K. Dobbins due to Bateman’s innate ability to run crisp route stems with the size and instinct to adjust and win one-on-one battles on the perimeter. Tylan Wallace is an impressive route runner in his own right, using a combination of quickness and aggression to combat heavy contact, and often made leaping receptions during his collegiate career at Oklahoma State University. These signings also benefit Marquise “Hollywood” Brown, who averaged 6.3 targets per game but only saw double-digit targets once during Week 5 (10) and finished with a meager 58 receptions across 16 games. Eight touchdowns elevated Brown to a WR3 finish (WR34) in half-PPR but an upgraded receiving corps should help him out tremendously despite the likelihood of a reduced target share.
Draft Dobbins
With the first days of training camp now behind us, J.K. Dobbins has not seen his ADP change much. The 22-year old running back is being valued as the RB17 in half-PPR formats behind D’Andre Swift and Chris Carson and is the last tier-three running back available in drafts before having to wait for an entire round to choose between Miles Sanders, Josh Jacobs, and David Montgomery. Nearly all of the running backs referenced besides Carson and Montgomery will be splitting touches with other dynamic ball carriers that limit their ceiling. Furthermore, drafting the RB1 of a run-centric team that upgraded its offensive line and wide receiving corps is always going to be more valuable and beneficial in fantasy lineups. Yes, running back Gus Edwards re-signed with the Ravens on a two-year, $10 million deal but he is missing the start of training camp due to being placed on the IR/COVID-19 list. This will afford Dobbins tremendous opportunity to showcase his development and athleticism that began emerging in the latter half of his rookie season once he was given a bigger workload. Lamar Jackson is an absolute spectacle to watch when he’s the ball carrier but if the offensive line improves its pedestrian protection rate percentage (85.6%) from last season, Dobbins could receive more dump-offs and designed screen passes to add wrinkles to an offense that markedly improved its personnel this offseason.
Running back targets and receptions reign supreme in PPR and there is undoubtedly going to be an emphasis on getting Dobbins more involved in this facet of the offense to keep defenses on their heels. Nick Chubb was the only running back (RB9) to finish with fewer targets than Dobbins (18) in 2020, as most saw anywhere from 40-60 across the 16-game season. John Harbaugh and Greg Roman will want to reduce Jackson’s carries in order to preserve him for an anticipated lucrative contract extension for the 2019 MVP. Dobbins is only entering his second year in the league and proved he is an exceptionally explosive ball carrier with all of the skillset required to become a dual-threat RB1 in 2021. Take advantage of the industry skepticism towards Dobbins and draft him as a breakout RB1 prospect at the end of the second or beginning of the third round.
