One of the things that I love about fantasy football is the discussion surrounding all the players heading into the new season. Everyone has their spin on what players will and won’t do. There are also the “you should draft this player” or “you should avoid this player” conversations all over. But for the latter, every fantasy manager has a few players they aren’t willing to draft for many reasons. Maybe you were burned by an injury from a player. Maybe a coaching change has the offense planning to do something different that will impact that player’s performance. Maybe a player was traded or released from their long-standing team.
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The Sinister Seven
Whatever the case, fantasy managers will avoid some fantasy players at all costs during their drafts. And I’m certainly no different. So here are seven fantasy football players I’m avoiding like my life depended on it. And I mean, I don’t want any shares of these guys. What’s that expression? “I wouldn’t touch you with a 10ft pole”? Yeah, it’s like that.
Davante Adams
The first player on my list is Davante Adams. I know he’s been good in the past. And he’s certainly been on a few fantasy teams of mine before. But heading into this season, he’s got more issues to deal with than a little bit. Adams already lost Derek Carr after the Raiders released him from the team. With Carr out of the picture, Adams will catch passes from newly signed quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo.
Garoppolo’s foot was one of the headlines for the offseason as there was some skepticism as to whether he would pass the team physical but that ship seems to have passed as teams are coming in for the start of training camp.
#Raiders QB Jimmy Garoppolo passed his physical this morning and has been cleared by doctors after undergoing foot surgery this offseason, per @AdamSchefter. The Raiders included a clause in his contract that required him to pass a physical on his foot, and he has now done that. pic.twitter.com/hHXzCT7WZO
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) July 23, 2023
Garoppolo could be the catalyst to why Davante Adams may not have the top-end season that every fantasy manager has been used to over the years. Garoppolo produced just one high-end fantasy player as a starter with the San Francisco 49ers just one time in Deebo Samuel back in 2021. While the expectation of Adams continuing to see volume as the Raiders WR1 is still there, the addition of Jakobi Meyers and the healthy return of Hunter Renfrow could impact Adams in a passing offense that may not sport a ton of volume. As a starter, Jimmy Garoppolo has never topped 500 passing attempts at any point in his career. By comparison, Derek Carr has been throwing above that 500 mark or higher his entire career.
Adams’ price tag is another reason I’m not touching him. Adams is coming off draft boards as the WR7 in early fantasy drafts, and with that kind of price with the dropoff at quarterback from Carr to Jimmy G, I can’t reach for Adams with guys like Garrett Wilson and Tee Higgins available after his draft price.
Rhamondre Stevenson
Rhamondre Stevenson is a great player so adding him to my list was tough. Stevenson finished as the RB7 in 2022 and has received strong hype heading into the new season. Stevenson could very well have another strong season as the Patriots’ only legit offensive weapon but that’s where the issues come in. Stevenson was very efficient last season, averaging about five yards per carry on 210 rushing attempts. That breaks down to just 12 carries a game on average. Stevenson was also third in Evaded Tackles in 2022 with 113 and was first in Juke Rate at nearly 41%.
This season, looking around at the Patriots’ offense doesn’t bring much hope for overall improvement. Quarterback Mac Jones still looks to lead the team under center in 2023 and hasn’t been able to improve at the position. The starting wide receivers won’t scare away defenders in the AFC with Juju Smith-Schuster, Davanta Parker, and Kendrick Bourne. The tight end position will again be a head-scratching, befuddling mess as Hunter Henry gets paired up with free-agent signee Mike Gesicki this season.
Stevenson is being drafted as a top-10 running back but in the NFL it’s tough to maintain highly efficient seasons. Just remember what happened to Jonathan Taylor last season for example. There are just a few more running backs in better positions with more volume and scoring opportunities to bank on over Stevenson this season.
Daniel Jones
Here’s a guy living off of the hype of a good season (finally). Jones used his legs to generate a positive fantasy outlook in 2022, and some in fantasy circles are betting on that kind of production again in 2023. While I understand the appeal of the running quarterback, I don’t believe that Daniel Jones has another top-10 finish in him this year. Now I was on the wave last season with Daniel Jones with Brian Daboll coming in as the new head coach, but a few things are coming into the season that have caught my attention, leading to Jones being added to my list.
Jones’s wide receiver corp didn’t improve much this offseason. The Giants did take a rookie receiver in Jalin Hyatt, but the jury is still out on him if he can assert himself in camp to get a dominant role in the Giants’ offense. Then you have the rest of the corp in Sterling Shephard, Darius Slayton, and the rest haven’t been fantasy viable since being on the Giants roster. Then you factor in the possible lack of a run game with no Saquon Barkley on the team because of contract disputes, Jones is looking to take a hit this fantasy season, and I don’t want any part of that. Even with Jones coming off fantasy boards as the QB14, I’d take a chance on Geno Smith, Jared Goff, or even Derek Carr over selecting Daniel Jones.
Tyler Lockett
Tyler Lockett is a player that I want to like but I can’t seem to drive myself to take him in fantasy drafts. Lockett had a great season in 2022, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game and finishing as a top 20 wide receiver. But the Seahawks grabbed another wide receiver out of the 2023 NFL Draft in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN was considered the best wide receiver out of the draft, giving Geno Smith another weapon to go with D.K. Metcalf and Lockett. The thing for me is that JSN is good enough to be a viable weapon right out of the gate for the Seahawks, and considering that they spent a first-round pick on JSN to bring him in, it’s highly possible.
But that means the targets may have to come off of someone else’s plate to get JSN going. Lockett isn’t getting any younger but can still provide a bonafide deep-threat presence for the Seahawks’ offense, allowing JSN to get up to speed underneath and taking advantage of mismatches with his route running. Lockett was second on the team in targets last season with 117, a 21.2% target share. The next wide receiver behind him saw just 42 targets. Should JSN and Geno Smith gel quickly during camp, the young rookie should be able to soak up the nearly 60 targets behind the top wide receivers and pull even more work off the vets’ plates.
Mike Evans
The “Buc” stops here with Mike Evans (see what I did there?). Evans had a nice run with so many seasons as a thousand-yard wide receiver over his entire career. With Baker Mayfield expected to be the QB1 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2023, it might be time to start the curtain call. Mayfield has completed just 61.6% of his passes over his time with the Cleveland Browns and an 87.8% passer rate to boot. While Mayfield will get better weapons in Tampa Bay, Mayfield’s ability as a passer should be heavily considered as to whether or not it will impact wide receivers like Mike Evans who rely on heavy volume and passer accuracy for fantasy impact.
Over the last two seasons as a starter, Mayfield’s top wide receivers could not crack 100 targets with Mayfield at the helm. Neither Odell Beckham nor Jarvis Landry were in the top 25 receivers in either season. On the other hand, Evans has been a top-performing wide receiver even with guys like Jameis Winston, but would you say that Baker Mayfield is as good as even Jameis? Mayfield is a clear downgrade at QB, especially after the retirement of Tom Brady.
Mike Evans’s draft price might make it more susceptible to draft him as he’s listed as the WR33 per FantasyData. I won’t lie and say that won’t at least give me pause, but I’m still passing on Mike Evans even at a potential value.
Deebo Samuel
Deebo had a nice run during the 2021 season and was definitely one reason I won one of my fantasy leagues that season. But Samuel hasn’t been the same since. The one thing that made him attractive in 2022 was his rushing ability in concert with his receiving chops. But the two skill sets weren’t utilized like they were in 2021. Samuel took a hit all across the board last season after a top 5 finish the previous season, downgrading in yards per attempt, rushing touchdowns, yards per target, and fantasy points per game.
The one thing that might be able to save him and keep him fantasy relevant in 2023 is being part of the receiving group as he and Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo Samuel did only see 94 targets but he also missed three games while averaging 7.2 targets per game. Factoring in his missed games would still allow him to crack over 100 targets. But the hype that Brandon Aiyuk has been getting this offseason could lend fruit and assert Aiyuk as the number one guy for Brock Purdy who’s expected to return sooner rather than later.
Aiyuk led all Niners receivers with 114 targets last season and showed a real connection with Brock Purdy over that six-game stretch to close out the regular season seeing nearly seven targets a game. It seems unlikely that Deebo Samuel continues to see rushing upside with Christian McCaffrey on the team and Elijah Mitchell healthy and without that upside, Deebo turns into another wide receiver. I’d be more willing to roll the dice on Aiyuk if I have to choose between the two Niners wideouts.
George Kittle
Stop me if you’ve heard this before. “The tight end position is one of the shallowest spots to draft from.” And you would be right. It is. But George Kittle is still landing on this list of players I’m avoiding. You might think that Kittle is still one of the top tight ends in the league, and you might be right. However, for fantasy football, I’m not taking him. On the surface, Kittle averaged 13.4 fantasy points per game last season and finished as the TE3 in PPR formats and that’s all well and good. But when you take a deeper look at his numbers, you’ll see why I’m passing on Kittle.
During the 2022 season, Kittle had just five games of 15+ fantasy points. His 13.4 FPPG average was buoyed by three big games in which he saw 20 points or more and a Week 18 game where he grabbed 18 fantasy points against the broken Arizona Cardinals. Kittle averaged 5.7 targets per game in 2022 which was good for 11th among fantasy tight ends. Kittle did manage to finish fifth in receiving yards with 765 yards and finished 11 touchdowns which was good for second among tight ends. Unfortunately, nearly half of Kittle’s touchdowns didn’t come until the final four games of the regular season.
Kittle was up and down with large fantasy production spikes followed by single-digit lows throughout the season. Kittle won’t be on my list for tight-end targets heading into this season.
Are any players on your “Do not draft” list heading into this season? Follow me on Twitter @hype_phinest and let me know what players you plan to leave off your fantasy draft boards this coming draft season.
