Bold Fool’s Gold
Oh yeah! We’re getting to the part of the offseason where we get to land some spicy takes! We all love the players that make up fantasy football. So, sometimes, fighting against some of our preconceived notions about a player can be difficult because they did well the year before. Some players could be considered “fools gold.” What does that mean? Let’s define the phrase as “players who did well last year but won’t this year.” It’ll be harsh, and it may ruffle a few feathers. And that’s ok. Not every player will work out like they did last season. Now, let’s get started.
Disclaimer: These bold picks are from William Spencer (@hype_phinest) and don’t reflect the entire staff here at FantasyData.
Everything That Glitters…
Jordan Love
Now let me start by saying that I was on the Jordan Love “hype train” before the start of last season. Love showed what he could do last season and, down the stretch, was one of the best quarterbacks in the league. I even called my shot on Love breaking out in his first starting season since the departure of Packers great Aaron Rodgers. Love, however, has a few questions he needs to answer. One of the biggest being “Can Love perform at a high level for an entire season?”. Over the first half of the season, Love was ranked as the QB14 from weeks 1-9, then turned it up to 11 from weeks 10-17 as the QB2, second to Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. Love may have finished strong last season, and while that’s admirable in his first start, the NFL is known to catch up on quarterbacks after gaining film on them. With Love’s current ADP at QB7, Love is an expensive fantasy piece with half a season’s worth of top-tier experience under his belt. Love could fall back to Earth this season with NFL defenses catching up to him. I’ll be looking for other options in the later rounds if I decide to wait on a quarterback.
Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts is being taken even earlier than the quarterback mentioned above to kick this list off, and it’s understandable, too. Hurts finished with 38 total touchdowns last season, 15 of which were “tush-push” specials. Hurts also finished as the QB2 overall in fantasy with a 21 FPPG average. However, there have been major changes to the offense this season after the Eagles allowed offensive coordinator Brian Johnson to let the door hit him where the “sun don’t shine”. With the installment of Kellen Moore, an offensive coordinator who tends to lean on the pass more than the run, and the free agent signing of running back Saquon Barkley and the $13 million/yr investment they put into him, I expect to see more Barkley on the ground in those short-yardage situations than Hurts. That’s not to say that the Eagles will stop using Hurts as a runner, but the frequency that makes him a deadly fantasy player could be scaled back.
Kyren Williams
Kyren Williams was a fantasy “diamond in the rough” last season that came out of nowhere and took the fantasy world by storm. But Sean McVay tends to mess with the Rams’ running back position far too much. Cam Akers often had to deal with another back being used in the backfield like Darrell Henderson or Sony Michel. Williams could be dealing with the same with Blake Corum being drafted this offseason. Kyren Williams is currently ranked as a top-10 running back coming off draft boards as the RB8. Durability concerns also circle Williams, as he played 11 games last season and is already dealing with injuries during the Rams’ offseason program. Williams had a nice fantasy run last season, as he averaged 21 FPPG. I can’t see Kyren Williams doing that again, and if Cooper Kupp stays healthy, those extra targets will swing away from Williams.
Rachaad White
White had a surprisingly good fantasy season last year. White finished as the RB4 last year and was ninth in targets among running backs. While Rachaad White did capitalize on the PPR aspect for fantasy, White averaged only 3.6 y/a on the ground. Another thing to consider with White is that his competition was on the downside last season. Running backs like Jonathan Taylor, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, and Austin Ekeler (to name a few) had down seasons, which may have helped push White up to the top. That may not be the case this season with all the new moves made during the free agency period and other backs rising the depth charts. White had a great season in 2023 and probably his highest fantasy finish since entering the NFL. But with more backs returning to different teams and the addition to the backfield in rookie back Bucky Irving, Rachaad White is pure “fool’s gold”.
Justin Jefferson
This might get me in hot water, but Justin Jefferson makes the list. Justin Jefferson is uber talented so that shouldn’t be disputed. His quarterback situation is less than inspiring, however. Currently heading into camp as the QB1, Sam Darnold doesn’t inspire confidence in Justin Jefferson’s fantasy value to take him as a top 5 wide receiver on the draft boards. There are too many wide receivers with better quarterbacks to take instead even at cheaper prices. Darnold has never produced a top-15 wide receiver as a starter in the NFL. Some may say that “Jefferson was able to produce with Nick Mullens as his quarterback,” and that’s fair. I dare say that Mullens’s four-game pace extrapolated over an entire season would be better than anything Sam Darnold has done as a starter. And heaven forbid if Darnold loses the starting job to rookie J.J. McCarthy. At Jefferson’s ADP, Justin Jefferson could be in for a rocky road no matter how good he is.
Christian Kirk
The Jacksonville Jaguars made significant changes to the wide receiver corp this offseason. The Jags moved on from Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones during free agency and added Gabriel Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr in corresponding moves. Kirk seems to be gaining steam regarding his draft value heading into the 2024 fantasy season as Kirk (WR31) is ranked higher than Gabe Davis (WR57) and Thomas jr (WR49). One glaring thing I noticed last season was that Kirk gave up targets to Calvin Ridley, finishing second on the team in targets even with Zay Jones missing time. Kirk was also not used in the red zone compared to Ridley, seeing just six targets all season when inside the 20. With bigger receivers in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr, with the latter already drawing positive reviews during OTA’s and minicamp so far, Kirk could see his usage slide the deeper we get into the season should Thomas gain his footing at NFL-level speeds.
David Njoku
David Njoku is another player that saw great production last season towards the end of the year and was on fantasy championship rosters during the fantasy playoffs. And for good reason. Njoku saw 123 total targets (7.7 per) in 2023 and finished in the top three among tight ends in targets. David Njoku averaged 12.5 FPPG and finished as the TE6. The problem is that he saw a majority of his production with a quarterback who wasn’t even on the roster until later in the season in Joe Flacco. From weeks 13-17, Njoku averaged nine targets per game with Flacco under center as opposed to the 6.5 average he saw from weeks 1-12. With the addition of Jerry Jeudy reportedly “playing out of the slot” for the Browns, targets could become scarce for the Browns tight end this season.
