Jordan Love Fantasy 2023
The Green Bay Packers have finally closed the book on the Aaron Rodgers era this offseason after trading the former Packers MVP to the New York Jets for a hefty sum. But with Rodgers now gone, all eyes now turn to third-year quarterback Jordan Love.
Love was drafted with the Packers’ 26th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft. At the time, the move was met with heavy scrutiny. Aaron Rodgers had already stated that he was looking for the front office to add more weapons around him after losing long-time receiver Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb back in 2018 (and yes Davante Adams was there but was up and coming at the time). Rodgers as well as the Packers fan base were perplexed by the move and a crazy back and forth between Rodgers and the Packers front office would ensue.
But Love is an interesting prospect heading into the 2023 season as the expectations for the new Packers quarterback could go either way.
The Ups and Downs Of Love
The one thing that can drive folks away from players in fantasy is the lack of experience. This isn’t likely the case when it comes to rookies, at least not for me personally, but when you look at Jordan Love you see the facts that there isn’t much to go on to this point of his NFL career. In 2021, Love played just a handful of games that season and dealt with injuries that seem to have extended from the preseason. Love injured his throwing shoulder in the Packers’ preseason opener against the Houston Texans.
Love would have just one game that season where he would attempt over 30 passes which would be a 7-13 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Love would only complete 19 passes that game for 190 yards, one touchdown, and one interception for a 55.88% completion percentage. Love would finish his second season in the NFL with 411 passing yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions, and a 68.7% passer rating. On its surface, there’s not a lot to go on when it comes to projecting a more positive spin on Love’s possible outcome for the 2023 season. If you look at his college career at Utah State, that might give you a good start.
Love had back-to-back seasons at Utah State throwing over 3,000 yards. In 2018, Love would throw for 32 touchdowns and averaged 8.6 yards per attempt. Love also posted passer rates over 100 in each of his three seasons at Utah State. Love’s rushing ability should not be discounted either. From the NFL combine, Love’s 40 time sits somewhere between 4.65 – 4.74, meaning he can get out of dodge if need be and pick up yards with his feet. While his rushing numbers aren’t great at the college level since he rushed for just 403 yards the entire time at Utah State, Love was able to rush for just over 800 yards back in his senior year at Liberty High School. Love was also named MVP during the 2018 New Texas Bowl when he threw for 359 yards and four touchdowns. There’s certainly some dawg in Jordan Love to get busy when he’s under center.
There are other positives to look at when it comes to looking at Jordan Love as a potential fantasy prospect this season too. For starters, the team as a whole has built a solid foundation for Love to step into and work within the confines of the team. Love inherits a team that finished the 2022 season ranked 14th in points scored, averaging nearly 22 points a game. The backfield remains the same with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon carrying the mail for the Packers offense. Jones was the lead man on the ground and in the air for the Packers last season as he finished ninth in rushing yards with 1,121 yards. For fantasy, Aaron Jones has been able to stay consistent. Jones finished as the RB9 in PPR formats last season and has finished outside of the top 10 fantasy backs just once over the last three seasons where he finished as the RB11 in 2021.
Dillon is able to make his impact felt where he can. With Jones soaking up a larger share of the snaps, Dillon still has to get in where he fits in. Jones leads both backs in snaps per game at 37.1 to 31.6 and in Snap% at 57.6% to 47.1%. Despite that, Dillon has shown to be a capable back when he’s on the field. He still managed just over four yards per attempt on the ground in 2022 and had a nice four-game stretch from Weeks 12-17 where he was the RB12. Over that span, Dillon averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game. Dillon even had two games where he scored 20+ fantasy points, scoring big against the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams in back-to-back weeks.
Jordan Love may not have a wide receiver like DaVante Adams to throw to anymore but he certainly has a promising wide receiver corp to work with. With the departure of Allen Lazard in free agency, Christian Watson looks to be the new number-one wide receiver for the team. After a slow start in his rookie season, things started to pick up for the rookie. He had a hot four-game streak where he averaged 24.8 fantasy points per game, making him the WR3 in PPR formats. Watson scored seven touchdowns over that stretch and showcased his big play ability on several occasions like when he scorched the Cowboys’ secondary deep for a touchdown score, making it look easy.
Rookie Christian Watson WENT OFF against the Cowboys 😳📈 pic.twitter.com/6ZUgTw2G4U
— B/R Gridiron (@brgridiron) November 14, 2022
Watson averaged just 4.7 targets per game but with the 100 targets left behind in Allen Lazard’s wake, Watson should see an uptick in targets this coming season. Romeo Doubs is another wide receiver that should see additional work this season too. Doubs was a training camp darling heading into 2022. Doubs was involved in his rookie season and had a modest outing, getting 425 receiving yards and three touchdowns. Doubs had just four games with double-digit fantasy points last season but has an opportunity to do more with more targets being available to him.
Both Watson and Doubs averaged less than 12 fantasy points per game last season but with Love under center and the youth movement in full effect this season for the Packers, both should be looking to be established pieces in the Packers offense.
The Packers also added some more help out of the draft this offseason too, adding athletic tight end Luke Musgrave and Jayden Reed in the second round. Musgrave has already been getting a lot of love during OTA’s from head coach Matt LaFleur who has been impressed with Musgraves’ speed and size. Musgrave was one of the top tight-end prospects coming out of the draft at 6’6’, 253 lbs. Musgrave also had the fourth-highest 40 time among tight ends coming out of the NFL combine. That kind of combination of size and speed should be very handy for a new quarterback. Reed is another wide receiver that has speed, and play-making ability, and can separate from defenders. Reed could end up playing the slot for the Packers, pairing up with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs to make for an impressively young (and good) wide receiver corp. Reed slots in at 5’11”, 187 lbs, and per NFL combine reports, his most dangerous attribute is his ability to make yards after the catch. Adding that to the mix with what the other pass catchers can do looks to be yet another positive for Jordan Love to be productive.
With That Being Said…
The data is all in front of us now. So what’s my take? My take is that I do believe Jordan Love can have a breakout season in 2023. He’s got the weapons to get it done and he has the youth at various positions on the team. Training camp will be the most telling part of the Packers skill position’s development and chemistry but if they can get on the same page, we could be looking at a tight race for the NFC North division with all the teams there making strides to improve. The Packers’ schedule also helps make the case too as the Packers have the 9th easiest strength of schedule for the 2023 season, according to CBS Sports facing off against CHI, ATL, NO, DET, and LV with the Lions being the only team last season with a record over .500.
Love looks to have the tools to get the job done but putting it all together during the season is where the trials can begin. Love’s ADP is marked at the QB25 right now and based on the other quarterbacks ahead of him in redraft leagues, Love could be a QB2 stash in case your starting quarterback goes down. If I’m drafting at quarterback, I would like my squad up with a bonafide starter and take Love for his upside. If Love shows promise over the start of the regular season it won’t be long before he’s on the top of everyone’s waiver wire adds for the week. Keep your eye on Jordan Love. He might surprise you. And if he does pop off, remember who told you first *wink wink.
