Underdog Fantasy Prop Bets
The moment we have all been waiting for — NFL football Is finally back! One of my favorite things about betting in the NFL is the prop picks. It’s similar to Fantasy Football for me in the sense that we are scoping the same sort of metrics. Whether it’s placing a prop bet or setting your lineup, we are constantly studying these NFL teams, their tendencies, matchups, etc. For me, this is what makes prop bets so fun. This will be a weekly column that I will make sure to have ready for each week come Friday, and I will keep a running total of my W-L on the props I post here for the entire season. I will use the figures on Underdog Fantasy’s platform for lines and props.
As we start the NFL week 1, this is one of the more challenging weeks when looking at props. So many pieces of this puzzle change in the off-season that many of these teams can be way different than they were a year ago. As the season progresses and the more current data we have available, these props will be better to predict.
Join me on this season-long ride of my favorite prop picks.
Let’s get these coins back.
Josh Jacobs OVER 70.5 rushing (at DEN)
Josh Jacobs did miss all of training camp and pre-season in contract negotiations, but the veteran has signed his year-long deal with the Raiders, and he is back with the team and coming off a massive year in 2022. The Raiders have had many moving parts this offseason, even replacing quarterback Derek Carr with Jimmy G. Their line has stayed relatively the same as last year as they look to build on the progress they made. With that being said, we don’t know if Garoppolo will operate this offense more efficiently than Carr yet, but time will tell.
Amidst all of the change, one thing has been confirmed about Jacob’s matchup with the Broncos throughout the years: he does well against them. Looking at 2022, his most recent two games against them – Jacobs had 28 carries for 144 yards in the first game, and then 24 carries for 104 yards in the second one. With seven games against the Broncos in Jacob’s young career, he has tallied 721 yards rushing with seven touchdowns.
He has been relatively dominant against the Broncos recently and throughout his career. The Raiders should look to lean on Jacobs as they try to gear out a win in a very important in-division game in week 1.
Justin Fields OVER 184.5 passing yards (vs. GB)
Is quarterback Justin Fields going to take the next step in his game? The time is now, and this prop is very juicy. After adding veteran wide receiver DJ Moore in the offseason, the Bears look to build on their offense that took great strides in 2022. Last year, Fields hit this prop against the Packers when he threw for 254 yards against them in December of 2022. Through four career games against the Packers, Fields has hit over 184.5 passing in two of those four games.
You could argue that Fields is entering the biggest year of his young career as he looks to solidify himself as the franchise quarterback for Chicago. Adding DJ Moore into the mix, Justin smashes the over on this prop as the two in-division teams look to grab a win in a significant statement game in week 1.
Van Jefferson OVER 44.5 receiving yards (at SEA)
Someone’s got to catch the ball.
The Los Angeles Rams are heading into week one without their all-pro wideout, Cooper Kupp, so the team will then look to their young veteran in Van Jefferson. It has been confirmed this morning that Jefferson will be overtaking the WR1 duties. As the Rams look to get back to contention after a rough 2022, Jefferson is in line for potentially many targets in this week’s one matchup with Kupp out.
With not too many targets around him now, look for him to get over this juicy prop, currently at 44.5 yards.
Saquon Barkley OVER 66.5 rushing yards (vs. DAL)
Barkley and the Giants look to face off against the Dallas Cowboys in week one, with a lot to play for. After re-signing his contract in early August, Barkley has returned with an improved Giants offense that should take the next step in 2023. I have always been a huge fan of Brian Daboll, and with the addition of Darren Waller this offseason, the Giants offense should be more efficient. I like this prop because Barkley goes against a familiar opponent in the division-rival Cowboys and plays in front of his home crowd.
In 2022, Barkley hit this rushing mark against Dallas just once out of two games against them when he ran for 81 yards in their first matchup last year.
But it’s a new year, and both teams are in a crucial season where they need to return to the playoffs. I like the Giants and Barkley in this home game against the Cowboys.
Rhamondre Stevenson UNDER 81.5 rushing + receiving yards (vs PHI)
Looking at this prop, Rhamondre hits the under here in week 1. The Eagles were a highly impressive defense in 2022 and may get even better with their rookie, Jalen Carter, from Georgia. Rhamondre and the Patriots did not go up against the Eagles in 2022, so there is no data to reference.
But with potentially questionable quarterback play from the Patriots, the addition of Zeke Elliot, and his role being undefined against one of the NFL’s best teams and defenses, it would make sense if Stevenson goes below this prop line.
There are just a lot of question marks at this time.
Travis Etienne OVER 57.5 rushing yards (at IND)
The Jaguars are looking to build off of their 2022 playoff berth and take the next step as an NFL football team, and well, that all starts in week one here against the Colts. Vegas currently has the total line at O/U 45.5 points, so this should be a nice scoring matchup on Sunday for the division rivals. Etienne is now entering his second full season as the Jaguars starter (he missed his rookie year due to injury), and this Jaguars offense has the weapons to take the next step. With higher-powered offenses, running backs will get more opportunities to play and score.
Last year against the Colts, Etienne hit this prop one out of two matchups with this team. He ran for 86 yards on only ten attempts in October last year. According to teamrankings.com, the Colts finished 2022 in the bottom ten against the run. If rookie QB Anthony Richardson struggles early for the Colts, I could see Jacksonville’s offense on the field often, and Etienne should hit this prop.
Anders Carlson OVER 1.5 extra points (@ CHI)
Green Bay’s rookie kicker Anders Carlson (brother of Las Vegas Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson) will be making his NFL debut in week one against the Chicago Bears. To hit this prop would essentially mean that the Packers will need to score at least two touchdowns, and assuming they don’t go for two points, Carlson would need to convert his extra-point attempts.
The Packers have had a lot of changes this off-season, notably losing Aaron Rodgers to the New York Jets. But with a new young quarterback at the helm, sometimes the unknown can be enticing. We are unsure what to expect from this Green Bay team, but Vegas currently has the game line total at O/U 42.5, so even they think some touchdowns will be scored here.
This is a fun prop I could see hitting in week one.
Well, this is all for week one of the NFL Season! Follow along next week, as we will be sure to keep a record of how my prop bets hit throughout the season.
