Sweet sweet garbage time. The only thing worse than losing in fantasy football is losing to Blake Bortes because of his production in garbage time. For this article, I am going to take a deep “dumpster dive” into the top nine fantasy football “garbage time” players of 2018. But be warned. It’s going to get stinky. Better grab some Febreze.
For starters, how can we define garbage time? Well, a quick Wikipedia search summarizes it pretty well.
Garbage time owes its name to the fact that this period in a game is frequently marked by a significant drop in the quality of gameplay. This occurs for two primary reasons. The fact that seldom-used substitutes usually desire more future playing time means that when those players to play, they are often more concerned with making an individual impression than with executing team play at its best; this is especially true during garbage time because, at that point, the matter of which team will win has already been decided. During garbage time, the trailing team can sometimes rack up an unusually high tally of statistics, leading the respective box score to be misleading with respect to their actual game performance. For instance, in American football, if the losing team is behind by several touchdowns, the offense may resort entirely to the passing game in a futile effort to catch up. At the same time, the leading team (on defense, with second or third string players) may allow them to complete plays (which benefits them by running out the clock). This may lead the statistics to indicate a high amount of passing yards for the losing squad, which would suggest the team performed better than in reality.
My process with garbage time will begin with first identifying players that scored the most fantasy points during the 4th quarter and then segmenting through the context of those games. What games featured prime garbage time? We will also look at the statistics of the player when he is trailing in games. Note the parentheses with percentages indicate the player’s stats in the 4th quarter relative to the player’s seasonal statistics.
FantasyData Stat Pages To Bookmark
9. Matt Ryan – QB – Atlanta Falcons
- 10-28 entering 4th versus Cleveland
- 10-24 entering 4th versus New Orleans
- 10-27 entering 4th versus Pittsburgh
- 7-34 entering 4th versus Green Bay
In these games, Ryan in the 4th quarter alone threw four touchdowns. In all four of these games despite the fact that the Falcons were held under 20 points total, Ryan still scored at least 20 fantasy points in three (GB, NO, and CLE) of the four games. It makes sense that Ryan had high garbage time production because the Falcons were not a good team in 2018. Ryan scored more fantasy points in 2018, then he did in his 2016 MVP season. That had a lot to do with the more passing volume in 2018, where Ryan had over 600 passing attempts. 322 (52%) of his passing attempts came when the Falcons were trailing. He had 534 passing attempts in 2016.
8. Julio Jones – WR – Atlanta Falcons
Of course for a QB to be productive in garbage time he needs a WR to throw to. Enter Julio Jones, who had the most fantasy points of any player in the 4th quarter this season. He finished the season as the WR5 through 17 weeks. Overall when trailing, which was quite frequent for the Atlanta Falcons, Jones had 58 receptions (51%) for 864 receiving yards (51%) and five touchdowns.
Looking at Jones’ numbers through context during the Falcons’ four garbage time games he scored: 26.7 vs CLE, 27.8 vs NO, 11.2 vs PIT, and 33.6 vs GB. Again similar to Ryan he scored very well in three of those four games; scoring over 26 fantasy points in three garbage time contests.
7. Cam Newton – QB – Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton finished the season as the QB12 overall on the season. He finished the season with the second-most fantasy points of any player scored in the 4th quarter. At the QB position, however, no QB had a higher percentage of fantasy points scored in the 4th quarter (35.28%) than Cam Newton (minimum 14 games played). When trailing, Newton threw for 1,815 yards (53%) and 12 passing touchdowns (50%) on 214 passing attempts (45%). Cumulatively almost 50% of his passing statistics came in games the Panthers were behind.
Of the eight losses suffered by the Panthers in which Newton played, two definitely had garbage time finishes.
- 10-24 entering 4th versus Atlanta
- 14-45 entering 4th versus Pittsburgh
Newton scored his season-high 31.6 fantasy points against the Falcons in Week 2. Newton threw a 51-yard touchdown to D.J. Moore in this game with 2:20 left in the game, with the Panthers down by 14 which very much helped him reach his fantasy peak. Curtis Samuel was another large beneficiary of the garbage time production scoring 40.28% of his fantasy points in the 4th quarter. Samuel had 29 receptions for 289 yards, and two touchdowns when the Panthers were trailing in 2018.
6. Jameis Winston – QB – Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Winston finished the season as the QB22 on the season playing in just 11 games. On a point per game basis, he averaged as many points as Philip Rivers (17.8) fantasy points/game, good for QB14. At the position, Winston had the second highest percentage of fantasy points scored in the 4th quarter (34.73%) (minimum 11 games). Also worth noting Ryan Fitzpatrick scored 31.15% of his points in the 4th quarter. Overall the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterbacks’ cumulatively scored 361.62 total fantasy points which would have been good for the QB2 behind Patrick Mahomes. 33.09% of those fantasy points were scored in the fourth quarter.
In games in which Tampa Bay was trailing, Winston threw for 1,553 yards (51%), 10 touchdowns (52%), and 10 interceptions. More specifically, in scenarios where the Buccaneers were losing with less than four minutes remaining in the game, Winston threw for a whopping 263 yards and three touchdowns.
Of the 11 games, that Winston played, eight were losses. The following five games featured prime garbage time. Note that in the Giants game, the Buccaneers fell behind 14-31 quickly into the 4th quarter. Also, in both Falcons games, Atlanta scored quickly in the 4th quarter forcing the Buccaneers to throw late.
- 3-45 entering 4th versus Chicago Bears
- 13-27 entering 4th versus Dallas Cowboys
- 16-24 entering 4th versus Atlanta Falcons
- 14-24 entering 4th versus New York Giants
- 20-24 entering 4th versus Atlanta Falcons
In the two Atlanta games, Winston had his top two fantasy performances (35.7, 34.1). Also, in both those games, Atlanta scored quickly in the 4th quarter forcing the Buccaneers to throw late. Versus Dallas and New York, Winston still scored plus 15 fantasy points in both games. Against Chicago, Winston did not start which is why his 8.5 fantasy points were all in garbage time.
5. Zay Jones – WR – Buffalo Bills
Jones two best games this season came when the Bills scored 40 or more points in winning affairs. Every other game Jones scored double-digit fantasy points came in losses with some element of garbage time.
- 6-9 entering 4th versus New England Patriots
- 6-21 entering 4th versus New England Patriots
4. Jalen Richard – RB – Oakland Raiders
If you had to guess any RB that would be defined as an RB that gets worked when the team is losing you would be wise to choose Jalen Richard. Richard finished as the RB29 on the season but had a whopping 37.29% of his fantasy production come in the 4th quarter. While trailing in games this season Richard had 48 receptions (70%) for 456 yards (75%).
The poor Raiders obviously were always playing catchup and found themselves often in garbage time. Of the 16 games, the Raiders played 7 can be classified as garbage time games.
- 3-20 entering 4th versus Los Angeles Chargers
- 13-20 entering 4th versus Los Angeles Rams
- 0-20 entering 4th versus Seattle
- 3-31 entering 4th versus San Francisco
- 3-28 entering 4th versus Kansas City
- 16-33 entering 4th versus Kansas City
- 3-17 entering 4th versus Los Angeles Chargers
Richard scored double-digit fantasy points in five of these seven games and saw his season-high (16.9) in the loss to the Rams. It’s not surprising to see Richard on this list because Derek Carr absolutely loves checking it down. According to Pro Football Focus, Carr led the NFL in check-down passes.
3. Evan Engram – TE – New York Giants
The lone tight end of the group listed here, Evan Engram scored 48.54% of his total fantasy points in the fourth quarter. Engram played in just 11 games in 2018, ranking as the TE13. However, on a point/game basis, Engram was the TE7 (11.5). While trailing in games this season Engram had 30 receptions (67%) for 305 yards (53%) and three touchdowns. He had just 15 receptions when the Giants were tied or were leading.
Of the 11 games that Engram played, three featured prime garbage time. Note that even though the Giants were down just 3-10 against the Redskins the score fell to 6-20 in the fourth quarter and Engram caught a garbage-time touchdown with 0:17 seconds remaining in the game. Engram scored an average of 16.2 fantasy points per game over these three contests.
- 0-14 entering 4th versus Tennesse Titans
- 3-10 entering 4th versus Washington Redskins
- 3-13 entering 4th versus Dallas Cowboys
2. Josh Rosen – QB – Arizona Cardinals
Rosen finished the season as the QB34 overall on the season (yikes). If things could not get appear worse than brace yourself. 34.48% of Rosen’s fantasy points came in the 4th quarter. He threw nine touchdowns (81%) and 1,720 yards (75%) when trailing. Of the 11 losses suffered by Rosen, five definitely had garbage time finishes.
- 10-42 entering 4th versus Los Angeles Chargers
- 10-42 entering 4th versus Denver
- 7-33 entering 4th versus Atlanta
- 9-24 entering 4th versus Los Angeles Rams
- 14-20 entering 4th versus Kansas City
Interestingly enough even in this negative game scripts, Rosen still struggled to put up any decent fantasy production during these games. He averaged just 8.44 fantasy points over those games. This confirms the popular narrative of just how bad on offense this Arizona Cardinals’ team was in 2018.
1. Joe Mixon – RB – Cincinnati Bengals
While trailing in games this season Mixon had his best statistics. He rushed for 588 yards (50%) and four touchdowns (50%) on 5.3 yards per
The Bengals defense was a mess in 2018, so there were often times they saw a garbage time script presented.
- 10-21 entering 4th versus Denver
- 10-38 entering 4th versus Kansas City
- 7-45 entering 4th versus New Orleans
- 0-23 entering 4th versus Cleveland
- 14-35 entering 4th versus Cleveland
Interestingly enough even in this negative game scripts, Mixon was not great during these games. He averaged just 12.48 fantasy points over those games with just one game over 20 fantasy points. Fitting the RB garbage time narrative is not a hill you want to die on.
Final Takeaways
Garbage time production is something fantasy players should try to not rely on because essentially you are trying to predict game script. Assuming that because a team is down by a number of scores resulting in more passing attempts may seem like a safe process, but it is really not. There is huge risk involved because there are times where the offense is so inept that it does not even matter that the defense is playing “soft”. However, if you need to buy into a narrative whether for DFS or some other outlet, going for QB is your best bet for garbage time, followed by receivers, and pass-catching running backs.
