Adrian Peterson Fantasy
There’s no doubt that Washington Redskins running back Adrian Peterson will go down in history as one of the game’s all-time greats, with a future spot in the NFL Hall of Fame all but assured once he retires. But before Peterson’s bronze bust is revealed in Canton, he first has to stop playing. After re-signing a two-year deal with Washington, that ceremony is still on hold.
Peterson intends to prolong his playing days for at least one more season and that means one of the greats from the past decade will get at least one more opportunity to produce fantasy points. Ancient by running back standards and returning to a backfield that will be far more crowded than it was in 2018, Peterson isn’t attracting much fantasy attention heading into the 2019 fantasy draft season.
With low expectations and an even lower ADP, there is almost no downside to taking a chance on Peterson near the end of your fantasy football draft. Let’s look at Washington’s 2019 backfield and the potential fantasy value that Adrian Peterson has in what could be his final NFL season.
A Surprisingly Effective 2018 Showing
Coming off a dismal two-year run with Minnesota and Arizona, Peterson was largely ignored in free agency prior to the 2018 NFL season. He was unsigned deep into the preseason until Washington finally brought in the then 33-year-old running back and they likely only did that as a necessity. Presumptive rookie starter Derrius Guice tore his ACL and Samaje Perine and Byron Marshall were both felled by ankle ailments.
Right away, the long lay off seemed to do Peterson well. He opened the season with a 26-carry, 96-yard effort in Arizona and had five 95-plus yard rushing campaigns in Washington’s first eight games. But quarterback injuries and the undefeated Father Time combined to torpedo Peterson’s fantasy value in the second half of the season.
From Week 9 on, Peterson was held under three yards per carry and double-digit fantasy points six times. While AP posted top-10 overall numbers in both standard and PPR formats last year, he dipped to RB4 territory down the stretch, when his fantasy owners needed him the most.
Peterson has a history of being a volume back, who tends to get better as the game wears on and he exceeds 20 carries. But with Guice expected to be fully healthy ahead of training camp, and Peterson now another year older, it’s hard to envision Peterson receiving that kind of volume again.
History of 34-year-old Running Backs
Age affects NFL positions quite differently but for a brutal position like running back, it’s almost unheard of for a player to be an effective option at Peterson’s advanced age. Only five players in NFL history, including Peterson and Frank Gore, have topped 1,000 rushing yards after turning 33 and only two players have managed to do so after turning 34.
| Player | Year | Age | Game | Att | Yds | Y/A | TD |
| John Riggins | 1983 | 34 | 15 | 375 | 1347 | 3.6 | 24 |
| John Riggins | 1984 | 35 | 14 | 327 | 1239 | 3.8 | 14 |
| John Henry Johnson (FB) | 1962 | 33 | 14 | 251 | 1141 | 4.6 | 7 |
| John Henry Johnson (FB) | 1964 | 35 | 14 | 235 | 1048 | 4.5 | 7 |
| Adrian Peterson | 2018 | 33 | 16 | 251 | 1042 | 4.2 | 7 |
| Frank Gore | 2016 | 33 | 16 | 263 | 1025 | 3.9 | 4 |
| Franco Harris | 1983 | 33 | 16 | 279 | 1007 | 3.6 | 5 |
One of those players was Washington’s own John Riggins who not only rushed for 1,347 yards and 24 touchdowns in 1983 at age 34 but also ran for 1,239. Of course, today’s NFL game is far different than the one in which Riggins played nearly 40 years ago. Riggins also had 2,038 career touches heading into his age 34 season, compared to Adrian Peterson’s 2,825 career totes.
As exceptional as Peterson has been, and as well-conditioned as he remains at an advanced football age, there is no history of a player with his career workload exceeding 1,000 rushing yards, which is only half of the goal that Peterson set for himself this offseason.
Outside of AP himself, nobody expects Peterson to approach that 2,000-yard mark, but that doesn’t mean that Peterson can’t carve out a niche in Washington’s backfield and perhaps even provide one final season of fantasy relevancy.
2019 Expectations
Jay Gruden‘s West Coast offenses tend to fare well overall, but in eight seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, all eight of Gruden’s teams have finished below average in rushing yards. Throw in the expected return of Guice as the starter, and it is difficult to project enough touches for Peterson to be even close to a weekly play.
Jay Gruden‘s West Coast offense tend to fare well overall, but in eight seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator or head coach, all eight of Gruden’s teams have finished below average in rushing yards.
Peterson attracted little interest on the open market this season and re-signed with Washington. Meanwhile, Guice has been running for some time and is still on track to be cleared to participate in training camp. While the Redskins might envision a full-blown timeshare for Guice and Peterson, the 2018 second-rounder will be given every opportunity to earn the starting role and take the lion’s share of carries.
Throw in Peterson’s limitations as a receiver and it is hard to see him garnering more than 10-12 weekly touches, but that doesn’t mean he should be completely ignored on draft day.
Easily acquired late in fantasy drafts, Peterson is still a solid short-yardage option and could post usable RB2 numbers in a week-to-week basis if Guice has a setback or suffers another injury. If both backs do wind up splitting touches, Peterson, who can be acquired in the 12th-round or later, is a much more appealing value than Guice in Round Five. Fantasy leaguers who want to invest a fifth-rounder on Guice should also be interested in handcuffing with Peterson as one of their final picks.
Either way, Adrian Peterson showed last season that there’s still a little gas left in the tank, and he’s worth a look as a late-round flier.
