Advanced Fantasy Metrics: Week 6 True Catch Report

Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate

While another week transpired and caused a little shifting in our True Catch Rate leaderboards, bye weeks and injuries caused the top and bottom of our list to remain relatively stable. There’s still only one wideout with a perfect 100% score but he sat out Week 5. Looking at Houston’s boxscore, it seems like he might have remained there against the Falcons even if he’d been active. 

True Catch Rate filters out un-catchable passes, throwaways, and other subjective incompletions that are often “credited” as targets towards a pass-catcher. By only measuring the passes a receiver actually had a chance at catching can we get a true indication of which players actually have the best hands in football. 

With five weeks of data now compete, here are the best and worst performers using Fantasy Data‘s True Catch Rate and what it means for their fantasy value in Week 6 and beyond.

minimum of 12 targets

The League’s Least Efficient Receivers

No change at the bottom of our ranks as Devante Parker and Kenny Golladay were on bye and John Ross has been placed on IR. Mike Williams ranked as the second-worst wideout last week but had a strong enough showing against Denver to improve his score to 85%. 

Preston Williams also remained unchanged due to Miami’s Week 5 bye, but Williams remains a viable fantasy option despite the four drops and inadequate quarterback play. Williams had 5-plus targets and 3-plus reception in each of Miami’s four games and should be in-line for another solid effort in Week 6 against a Washington secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. 

After hauling in 7-of-11 targets for 82 yards in Week 5 but also suffering another drop, Dede Westbrook‘s TCR score saw minimal improvement. Despite the lack of efficiency, Westbrook has recorded 5-plus grabs in each of Jacksonville’s past three contests. Up next, the Jaguars host a New Orleans defense that ranks 27th against wide receivers, so Westbrook remains a viable weekly WR4. Teammate Chris Conley played another 77% of Jacksonville’s snaps in Carolina but only caught one out of three targets. Conley hasn’t topped 30 yards since Week 2 and is well off the fantasy radar. 

D.K. Metcalf is tied for the NFL leads with seven end zone targets so far in 2019, none of which have resulted in touchdowns. While Metcalf did produce his second score of the season last week against the Rams, he hasn’t performed as well as was hoped in contested catch situations. Expect that efficiency to start to improve and for Metcalf to get on a hot streak where he scores in three out of four weeks. He’s a solid trade target now with only 50 total yards in the past two games.

Green Bay’s Geronimo Allison has the highest drop rate (16.7%) for any wide receiver with 18-plus targets. Those drops have obviously had a negative impact on Allison’s rapport with QB Aaron Rodgers, who has also been struggling. Despite logging 63% of the Packers’ offensive snaps this season, Allison has topped 30 receiving yards just once. He needs to be left out of fantasy lineups until Green Bay’s passing attack turns around.

Cleveland’s Monday Night performance in San Francisco had better be rock bottom or we could see the inevitable blow-up from Odell Beckham Jr. As QB Baker Mayfield struggles with turnovers and sacks, none of Cleveland’s pass-catchers are thriving. After catching just 2-of-6 for 27 yards against the 49ers, Beckham’s True Catch Rate score dipped to 71.9. Normally a contested-catch monster, OBJ has only corralled 40% of those throws and hasn’t topped 56 receiving yards since Week 2.