Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate
It might be hard to believe, but we’re almost halfway through the 2019 fantasy football season. While that might be alarming news for teams that are struggling to stay in playoff contention, more than enough advanced data has been accumulated to tell us which players are the most, and least efficient pass-catchers.
FantasyData’s True Catch Rate is a way to look beyond basic pass targets to identify which players possess the best hands in the NFL. By eliminating overthrown passes, throwaways, batted balls and other un-catchable targets, True Catch Rate measures how effective a receiver is at hauling in catchable passes.
Here are the best, and worst True Catch Rate performers after six weeks and how we can use that data to help us win in Week 7 and beyond.
The League’s Least Efficient Receivers
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGT | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONT TGT | CONT REC | CONT% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 28 | 13 | 229 | 2 | 5.17 | 1.32 | 61.9 % | 10 | 3 | 30.0 % | 17.6 | 8.2 | 1.41 | 2 | 7.1 % |
| 2 | Chris Conley | JAX | 25 | 14 | 243 | 1 | 4.35 | 0.9 | 63.6 % | 8 | 3 | 37.5 % | 17.4 | 9.7 | 1.53 | 2 | 8.0 % |
| 3 | John Ross | CIN | 32 | 16 | 328 | 3 | 4.23 | 1.66 | 64.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 20.5 | 10.2 | 2.54 | 5 | 15.6 % |
| 4 | Kenny Golladay | DET | 45 | 24 | 364 | 4 | 4.71 | 1.07 | 68.6 % | 11 | 5 | 45.5 % | 15.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 2 | 4.4 % |
| 5 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 20 | 12 | 189 | 1 | 3.4 | 1.07 | 70.6 % | 5 | 1 | 20.0 % | 15.8 | 9.4 | 2.2 | 2 | 10.0 % |
| 6 | Odell Beckham Jr. | CLE | 54 | 29 | 436 | 1 | 3.72 | 2.08 | 70.7 % | 12 | 5 | 41.7 % | 15 | 8.1 | 2.36 | 5 | 9.3 % |
| 7 | Preston Williams | MIA | 36 | 17 | 232 | 1 | 4.13 | 1.42 | 70.8 % | 9 | 2 | 22.2 % | 13.6 | 6.4 | 1.65 | 4 | 11.1 % |
| 8 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 45 | 26 | 280 | 1 | 4.04 | 1.5 | 72.2 % | 9 | 1 | 11.1 % | 10.8 | 6.2 | 1.62 | 4 | 8.9 % |
| 8 | Geronimo Allison | GB | 25 | 13 | 144 | 2 | 3.08 | 1.6 | 72.2 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 11.1 | 5.8 | 1.16 | 4 | 16.0 % |
| 10 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 31 | 16 | 336 | 2 | 4.77 | 1 | 72.7 % | 9 | 5 | 55.6 % | 21 | 10.8 | 2.2 | 2 | 6.5 % |
After hauling in 3-of-4 targets for 28 yards against Washington, DeVante Parker‘s True Catch Rate score actually went up more than six points but Parker remained the league’s least efficient wideout. Parker has never been known as the most consistent player but quarterback play has a lot to do with Parker’s struggles. Teammate Preston Williams also ranks seventh on this list and the 2018 Arizona Cardinals receiving corps featured prominently near the bottom of 2018’s TCR leaderboard. The common element: QB Josh Rosen, who has now been benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. This should lead to a boost for the entire Dolphins’ offense but Parker and Williams can be safely left on the bench until their play improves.
Chris Conley actually leads the Jaguars’ receiving corps in snaps but hasn’t made a lot of impact with the expanded playing time. While D.J. Chark (ties for 7th in True Catch Rate) has thrived with Gardner Minshew under center, Conley hasn’t topped two receptions or surpassed 30 receiving yards since Week 2. In Week 6, Conley failed to catch any of his three targets, dropping his TCR down to second-worst in the league. Like Conley, Dede Westbrook also is struggling, particularly in contested-catch situations where he’s only corralled 1-of-9 targets.
Imagine how good Kenny Golladay could be if he managed to come down with more than 24 of the 35 catchable targets that have been thrown his way. Golladay has only committed two drops but hasn’t fared well in contested-catch situations. Even with the lack of efficiency, Golladay enters Week 7 as the WR19 in PPR leagues and has a positive matchup against Vikings’ perimeter cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes.
Darius Slayton hasn’t been very good with his extended playing time, including a pitiful Week 6 showing where he caught 3-of-8 targets for just 32 yards. With TE Evan Engram, WR Sterling Shepard, and RB Saquon Barkley all back on the practice field for the Giants, Slayton should see a steep decrease in playing time and targets, making his already low fantasy value non-existent.
Like the Dolphins, Cleveland’s skill-position players are suffering from awful quarterback play. It just wasn’t expected from the Browns after Baker Mayfield‘s historic rookie season. No. 1 receiver Odell Beckham Jr. did post a solid 6/101 stat line on the Seahawks but he also dropped a league-worst three passes and saw his True Catch Rate score dip to 70.7%. The Browns are off in Week 7 so there’s hope that a week off can turn things around for what has been one of the most disappointing teams in football.
Geronimo Allison has dropped 16% of his targets and left the Packers’ Week 6 victory after suffering a concussion. It will be hard for Allison to be cleared in time for Green Bay’s Week 7 home contest against a struggling Oakland secondary. Even if he’s active, Allison is well off the fantasy radar.
Continue Reading Week 7’s True Catch Rate
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True Catch Rate Leaders
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTESTED TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Chris Godwin | TB | 54 | 43 | 662 | 6 | 4.61 | 1.27 | 95.6 % | 12 | 9 | 75.0 % | 15.4 | 12.3 | 3.28 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 2 | Trey Quinn | WAS | 32 | 20 | 132 | 1 | 4.03 | 2.02 | 95.2 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 6.6 | 4.1 | 0.89 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 3 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 69 | 45 | 523 | 4 | 4.27 | 1.55 | 93.8 % | 6 | 2 | 33.3 % | 11.6 | 7.6 | 2.4 | 3 | 4.3 % |
| 4 | Michael Thomas | NO | 67 | 53 | 632 | 3 | 4.3 | 1.33 | 93.0 % | 9 | 7 | 77.8 % | 11.9 | 9.4 | 3.28 | 2 | 3.0 % |
| 5 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARI | 52 | 35 | 427 | 2 | 3.5 | 1.05 | 92.1 % | 7 | 3 | 42.9 % | 12.2 | 8.2 | 2.15 | 1 | 1.9 % |
| 6 | Adam Humphries | TEN | 27 | 21 | 189 | 0 | 3.52 | 1.26 | 91.3 % | 2 | 1 | 50.0 % | 9 | 7 | 1.8 | 2 | 7.4 % |
| 7 | D.J. Chark | JAX | 44 | 30 | 528 | 5 | 4.89 | 1.55 | 90.9 % | 8 | 4 | 50.0 % | 17.6 | 12 | 3.11 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 7 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 56 | 40 | 402 | 2 | 4.36 | 1.37 | 90.9 % | 10 | 5 | 50.0 % | 10.1 | 7.2 | 2.08 | 4 | 7.1 % |
| 7 | Parris Campbell | IND | 13 | 10 | 62 | 1 | 4.21 | 1.15 | 90.9 % | 1 | 0 | 0.0 % | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.17 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 10 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 40 | 28 | 272 | 0 | 4.2 | 1.24 | 90.3 % | 4 | 3 | 75.0 % | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.03 | 1 | 2.5 % |
| 11 | Adam Thielen | MIN | 38 | 26 | 366 | 5 | 4.68 | 1.25 | 89.7 % | 5 | 3 | 60.0 % | 14.1 | 9.6 | 2.58 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 12 | Juju Smith-Schuster | PIT | 38 | 25 | 340 | 2 | 3.58 | 1.62 | 89.3 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 13.6 | 8.9 | 2.09 | 0 | 0.0 % |
Kenny Stills still boasts a perfect True Catch Rate, but fell out due to lack of targets via injuries. That makes Chris Godwin the new leader of the pack with an impressive 95.6 score. Godwin has not committed a drop this season and has really shined in contested-catch situations, where he’s caught 9-of-12. For comparisons, teammate Mike Evans ranks second in the NFL with 16 contested targets but has only come down with five of those balls. Labeled a breakout candidate all offseason, Godwin enters Week 7 as the No. 1 fantasy wide receiver and leads the NFL with 662 receiving yards and six touchdown receptions.
Trey Quinn improved his TCR somewhat by catching two more balls for all of eight yards. Through six games, Quinn is only averaging 6.8 yards per catch, which ranks 77th out of 78 qualified wideouts. While Quinn has come down with 20-of-21 catchable targets so far in 2019, he’s making almost zero impact on the field or in fantasy lineups.
Cooper Kupp dropped a ball last week but was otherwise hamstrung by an impotent Los Angeles offense. Jared Goff passed for an atrocious 78 yards and 3.3 yards per attempt and Kupp was held to a season-worst four grabs and 17 yards. In all, a forgettable Week 6 showing by the Rams cause Kupp’s True Catch Rate score to drop from 95.3% to 93.8%. Fortunately, Kupp should rebound quickly in Week 7 against an Atlanta Falcons secondary that has yielded the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, including 10 touchdowns, which is second-worst.
The absence of Drew Brees hasn’t had a huge impact on Michael Thomas, who continues to post terrific efficiency metrics all around. After hauling in another eight receptions against the Jaguars, Thomas now leads the league with 53 grabs and ranks second with 632 receiving yards. Up next. Thomas and the faints have a tough task traveling to Chicago to face a well-rested Bears’ secondary that has only allowed three touchdowns to wide receivers so far this season.
Larry Fitzgerald had an uncustomary drop against the Falcons, which dropped his TCR score slightly. After opening the season with back-to-back 100-yard outings, Fitzgerald is only averaging 52.5 receiving yards per game and 9.5 yards per grab. Fortunately, Fitzgerald’s odds of a big rebound in Week 7 look good as he’ll mainly be covered by New York Giants’ slot corner Grant Haley, which is a huge advantage for the future Hall-of-Famer.
With a scoring drought that has now reached five games, DeAndre Hopkins owners are starting to grow a little concerned. After putting up an 8/111/2 line in Houston’s opener, Hopkins has averaged 6.4 receptions, 58.2 yards, and zero touchdowns in Weeks 2-6. Hopkins has been his usual efficient self, ranking seventh in the NFL with a 90.0% True Catch Rate, but he has been credited with four drops. Some positive touchdown regression is to be expected in the upcoming schedule, which includes the Colts in Week 7 followed by Oakland in Week 8.
Another elite wideout who is struggling, Pittsburgh’s Juju Smith-Schuster has yet to top 84 receiving yards in any one game. Working with three different quarterbacks will have that kind of impact but Smith-Schuster has not dropped any of his 25 catchable targets. With Mason Rudolph already cleared to return to practice, Smith-Schuster is a very good “buy low” target during Pittsburgh’s Week 7 bye. When they return, the Steelers have a choice matchup against Miami in Week 8 and have a fantasy playoff schedule that includes Arizona and the Jets.
