Advanced Fantasy Metrics: Week 7 True Catch Report

Written by Jody Smith
October 17, 2019
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Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate

It might be hard to believe, but we're almost halfway through the 2019 fantasy football season. While that might be alarming news for teams that are struggling to stay in playoff contention, more than enough advanced data has been accumulated to tell us which players are the most, and least efficient pass-catchers. 

FantasyData's True Catch Rate is a way to look beyond basic pass targets to identify which players possess the best hands in the NFL. By eliminating overthrown passes, throwaways, batted balls and other un-catchable targets, True Catch Rate measures how effective a receiver is at hauling in catchable passes. 

Here are the best, and worst True Catch Rate performers after six weeks and how we can use that data to help us win in Week 7 and beyond. 

The League's Least Efficient Receivers

RANK PLAYER TEAM TGT REC YDS TD CUSHION TGT SEP TRUE CATCH RATE CONT TGT CONT REC CONT% YDS/REC YDS/TGT YDS/ROUTE DROP DROP%
1 DeVante Parker MIA 28 13 229 2 5.17 1.32 61.9 % 10 3 30.0 % 17.6 8.2 1.41 2 7.1 %
2 Chris Conley JAX 25 14 243 1 4.35 0.9 63.6 % 8 3 37.5 % 17.4 9.7 1.53 2 8.0 %
3 John Ross CIN 32 16 328 3 4.23 1.66 64.0 % 4 1 25.0 % 20.5 10.2 2.54 5 15.6 %
4 Kenny Golladay DET 45 24 364 4 4.71 1.07 68.6 % 11 5 45.5 % 15.2 8.1 2.3 2 4.4 %
5 Darius Slayton NYG 20 12 189 1 3.4 1.07 70.6 % 5 1 20.0 % 15.8 9.4 2.2 2 10.0 %
6 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 54 29 436 1 3.72 2.08 70.7 % 12 5 41.7 % 15 8.1 2.36 5 9.3 %
7 Preston Williams MIA 36 17 232 1 4.13 1.42 70.8 % 9 2 22.2 % 13.6 6.4 1.65 4 11.1 %
8 Dede Westbrook JAX 45 26 280 1 4.04 1.5 72.2 % 9 1 11.1 % 10.8 6.2 1.62 4 8.9 %
8 Geronimo Allison GB 25 13 144 2 3.08 1.6 72.2 % 4 2 50.0 % 11.1 5.8 1.16 4 16.0 %
10 D.K. Metcalf SEA 31 16 336 2 4.77 1 72.7 % 9 5 55.6 % 21 10.8 2.2 2 6.5 %

After hauling in 3-of-4 targets for 28 yards against Washington, DeVante Parker's True Catch Rate score actually went up more than six points but Parker remained the league's least efficient wideout. Parker has never been known as the most consistent player but quarterback play has a lot to do with Parker's struggles. Teammate Preston Williams also ranks seventh on this list and the 2018 Arizona Cardinals receiving corps featured prominently near the bottom of 2018's TCR leaderboard. The common element: QB Josh Rosen, who has now been benched for veteran journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick. This should lead to a boost for the entire Dolphins' offense but Parker and Williams can be safely left on the bench until their play improves.

Chris Conley actually leads the Jaguars' receiving corps in snaps but hasn't made a lot of impact with the expanded playing time. While D.J. Chark (ties for 7th in True Catch Rate) has thrived with Gardner Minshew under center, Conley hasn't topped two receptions or surpassed 30 receiving yards since Week 2. In Week 6, Conley failed to catch any of his three targets, dropping his TCR down to second-worst in the league. Like Conley, Dede Westbrook also is struggling, particularly in contested-catch situations where he's only corralled 1-of-9 targets. 

Imagine how good Kenny Golladay could be if he managed to come down with more than 24 of the 35 catchable targets that have been thrown his way. Golladay has only committed two drops but hasn't fared well in contested-catch situations. Even with the lack of efficiency, Golladay enters Week 7 as the WR19 in PPR leagues and has a positive matchup against Vikings' perimeter cornerbacks Trae Waynes and Xavier Rhodes.

Darius Slayton hasn't been very good with his extended playing time, including a pitiful Week 6 showing where he caught 3-of-8 targets for just 32 yards. With TE Evan Engram, WR Sterling Shepard, and RB Saquon Barkley all back on the practice field for the Giants, Slayton should see a steep decrease in playing time and targets, making his already low fantasy value non-existent. 

Like the Dolphins, Cleveland's skill-position players are suffering from awful quarterback play. It just wasn't expected from the Browns after Baker Mayfield's historic rookie season. No. 1 receiver Odell Beckham Jr. did post a solid 6/101 stat line on the Seahawks but he also dropped a league-worst three passes and saw his True Catch Rate score dip to 70.7%. The Browns are off in Week 7 so there's hope that a week off can turn things around for what has been one of the most disappointing teams in football. 

Geronimo Allison has dropped 16% of his targets and left the Packers' Week 6 victory after suffering a concussion. It will be hard for Allison to be cleared in time for Green Bay's Week 7 home contest against a struggling Oakland secondary. Even if he's active, Allison is well off the fantasy radar.


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Jody Smith

Jody is a member of both the Pro Football Writer's of America (PFWA) and Fantasy Sports Writer's Association (FSWA) and has been covering the NFL and fantasy football for over a decade. Jody won FantasyPro's Most Accurate Expert contest and also garnered the FSTA's accuracy award in 2012. A Houston native, Jody has covered the Texans locally since 2016 for both digital and radio audiences. Past writing stops include CBS Sportsline, Gridiron Experts, Pro Football Focus, Fanball, FantasyPro's. Jody is also a frequent guest on SiriusXM and Houston radio and his work regularly appears in print on newsstands each summer.