Advanced Fantasy Metrics: True Catch Rate
Now that we’ve moved into the second half of the NFL season, FantasyData’s True Catch Rate is starting to take shape. When it comes to determining which wide receivers are truly showcasing the best hands, the cream has certainly risen to the top and the players that are struggling present a unique “buy low” opportunity. Well, at least the ones that are commanding consistent targets.
Among the numerous advanced football metrics available, True Catch Rate eliminates uncatchable targets to give a true measure of which wideouts truly have the best hands. By discounting batted balls, defended passes, and other uncatchable targets, TCR measures a receiver’s ability to consistently haul in all catchable passes and which players are struggling.
Using all the data from the first half of the NFL season, here are the league’s least, and most efficient pass-catchers via True Catch Rate.
The League’s Least Efficient Receivers
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP. | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Chris Conley | JAX | 40 | 21 | 429 | 2 | 4.32 | 1.14 | 63.6 % | 10 | 3 | 30.0 % | 20.4 | 10.7 | 2 | 4 | 10.0 % |
| 2 | John Ross | CIN | 32 | 16 | 328 | 3 | 4.23 | 1.66 | 64.0 % | 4 | 1 | 25.0 % | 20.5 | 10.2 | 2.54 | 5 | 15.6 % |
| 3 | Mike Williams | LAC | 50 | 26 | 419 | 0 | 3.43 | 1 | 68.4 % | 13 | 2 | 15.4 % | 16.1 | 8.4 | 1.81 | 5 | 10.0 % |
| 4 | Darius Slayton | NYG | 27 | 16 | 267 | 3 | 3.4 | 1.17 | 69.6 % | 7 | 3 | 42.9 % | 16.7 | 9.9 | 1.72 | 4 | 14.8 % |
| 5 | D.K. Metcalf | SEA | 45 | 23 | 402 | 4 | 4.6 | 1.38 | 69.7 % | 10 | 6 | 60.0 % | 17.5 | 8.9 | 1.99 | 3 | 6.7 % |
| 6 | Golden Tate | DET | 36 | 23 | 280 | 1 | 3.23 | 0.94 | 71.9 % | 14 | 5 | 35.7 % | 12.2 | 7.8 | 2.15 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 7 | Odell Beckham Jr. | CLE | 61 | 34 | 488 | 1 | 3.57 | 2.11 | 72.3 % | 13 | 6 | 46.2 % | 14.4 | 8 | 2.27 | 6 | 9.8 % |
| 8 | Dede Westbrook | JAX | 55 | 32 | 383 | 1 | 4.23 | 1.54 | 72.7 % | 11 | 2 | 18.2 % | 12 | 7 | 1.75 | 4 | 7.3 % |
| 8 | DeVante Parker | MIA | 46 | 24 | 343 | 3 | 5.36 | 1.33 | 72.7 % | 13 | 6 | 46.2 % | 14.3 | 7.5 | 1.53 | 3 | 6.5 % |
| 10 | Jarius Wright | CAR | 25 | 14 | 150 | 0 | 3.87 | 1.86 | 73.7 % | 1 | 0 | 0.0 % | 10.7 | 6 | 0.91 | 4 | 16.0 % |
Chris Conley had an excellent Week 8 outing against the Jets, hauling in 4-of-7 targets for 103 yards. The majority of that production came via a 70-yard TD grab against a haggard Jets’ secondary. Overall, Conley improved his True Catch Rate score but another drop assured that he’s been the least efficient wide receiver for at least one more week, even as his weekly fantasy value is rising. Jaguars’ slot receiver Dede Westbrook has also been hindered by drops and now is dealing with a neck injury that could keep him sidelined for a week or two.
Where Mike Williams was among the most efficient touchdown producers of 2018, his luck seems to have run out in Season Three. Despite ranking fifth in the league with eight end-zone targets, Williams has yet to score his first touchdown of the season. Williams also has yet to eclipse 90 receiving yards in any one contest and his five drops are tied for third-most in football. Some positive touchdown regression can be expected but a Week 9 matchup against Green Bay doesn’t look too promising.
Predictably, Darius Slayton is struggling to consistently reel in passes and seems destined for the bench once Sterling Shepard (concussion) returns to the lineup. Slayton’s 14.8% drop rate is the third-worst average in the NFL and is highly-likely to land the fifth-round rookie a reserve role in the season’s second half. Slayton is best suited in a complementary role behind Shepard and Golden Tate, who is also struggling.
D.K. Metcalf has exceeded expectations but there is still room for the second-round rookie to improve. Metcalf has fared well in contested-catch situations and is on pace to score eight touchdowns but is struggling to gain separation, which is causing too many passes to be deflected. As Metcalf gains experience and confidence, these areas should improve and his TCR figures should get better.
While the Giants’ current wideouts are burdened with their own issues, a former Giant, Odell Beckham Jr., has been plagued by drops and lousy quarterback play to fall off the fantasy radar. Beckham has a pair of 100-yard outings but has been held under 60 receiving yards four times and has only scored a single touchdown in seven games. Cleveland’s schedule eases up significantly in the second half, which makes Beckham an intriguing ‘buy low’ candidate, but his struggles to catch the ball also make him a boom-or-bust trade target.
DeVante Parker continues to get better, although his three-week scoring stretch came to an end in Pittsburgh. Parker has either scored or exceeded 50 receiving yards in six of Miami’s seven games and has been a decent WR3/4 since Ryan Fitzpatrick reclaimed the starting job.
True Catch Rate Leaders
| RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | TGTS | REC | YDS | TD | CUSHION | TGT SEP. | TRUE CATCH RATE | CONTEST TGT | CONTEST REC | CONTEST% | YDS/REC | YDS/TGT | YDS/ROUTE | DROP | DROP% |
| 1 | Allen Robinson | CHI | 65 | 46 | 526 | 3 | 3.81 | 0.93 | 95.8 % | 16 | 10 | 62.5 % | 11.4 | 8.1 | 2.63 | 2 | 3.1 % |
| 2 | Larry Fitzgerald | ARZ | 59 | 38 | 447 | 2 | 3.53 | 0.97 | 95.0 % | 8 | 3 | 37.5 % | 11.8 | 7.6 | 2.1 | 1 | 1.7 % |
| 3 | Michael Thomas | NO | 89 | 73 | 875 | 4 | 4.19 | 1.4 | 94.8 % | 11 | 9 | 81.8 % | 12 | 9.8 | 3.27 | 2 | 2.2 % |
| 4 | Chris Godwin | TB | 62 | 47 | 705 | 6 | 4.4 | 1.37 | 94.0 % | 14 | 11 | 78.6 % | 15 | 11.4 | 2.87 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 5 | DeAndre Hopkins | HOU | 81 | 60 | 617 | 3 | 3.91 | 1.19 | 92.3 % | 13 | 6 | 46.2 % | 10.3 | 7.6 | 2.34 | 4 | 4.9 % |
| 6 | Cooper Kupp | LAR | 87 | 58 | 793 | 5 | 4.03 | 1.64 | 92.1 % | 9 | 3 | 33.3 % | 13.7 | 9.1 | 2.88 | 4 | 4.6 % |
| 7 | Jamison Crowder | NYJ | 50 | 35 | 322 | 0 | 4.26 | 1.31 | 92.1 % | 4 | 3 | 75.0 % | 9.2 | 6.4 | 1.73 | 1 | 2.0 % |
| 8 | Trey Quinn | WAS | 38 | 23 | 177 | 1 | 3.91 | 1.88 | 92.0 % | 6 | 3 | 50.0 % | 7.7 | 4.7 | 1.05 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 9 | Emmanuel Sanders | SF | 48 | 34 | 392 | 3 | 4.7 | 1.79 | 91.9 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 11.5 | 8.2 | 1.88 | 0 | 0.0 % |
| 10 | Adam Humphries | TEN | 37 | 28 | 253 | 0 | 3.56 | 1.27 | 90.3 % | 4 | 2 | 50.0 % | 9 | 6.8 | 1.76 | 2 | 5.4 % |
| 11 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | 54 | 46 | 615 | 4 | 3.94 | 2.18 | 90.2 % | 6 | 4 | 66.7 % | 13.4 | 11.4 | 2.62 | 2 | 3.7 % |
The fact that Allen Robinson is now the True Catch Rate overall leader is quite remarkable considering how poorly QB Mitch Trubisky has played. A-Rob has corralled 46-of-48 catchable targets and shined in contested-catch situations, where he ranks third with 10 contested catches. Robinson has caught four-plus balls in every game hit 60 or more receiving yards in six out of seven. In Week 9, Robinson has an A-plus matchup in Philadelphia against an Eagles’ secondary that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2019.
Pass-catching prowess is nothing new for Larry Fitzgerald, who has consistently showcased elite mitts throughout his illustrious career. Fitzgerald has one drop but has only failed to come down with one other catchable ball all season. But after a fast start, Fitzgerald’s volume is starting to slip. In Arizona’s past two games, he’s only totaled three catches for 20 yards. With two of the next three matchups coming against San Francisco’s outstanding defense, it might be a good time to move Fitzgerald while you can.
Michael Thomas has had the league’s best hands since being drafted, so it’s no surprise to see him inching his way towards the top of the TCR leaderboard. Thomas has reeled in 82% of all of his targets, which is a phenomenal number even if you didn’t include un-catchable passes. Thomas is the No. 1 fantasy wideout at the midway point and leads the NFL in targets (83), receptions (73), and receiving yards (875). With New Orleans off this week, there’s a good chance that Thomas tops this list next week.
Chris Godwin ranks second in the NFL with 11 contested catches and is now tied for the lead with six touchdowns. Godwin has run 65% of his routes out of the slot, so he has a positive Week 9 matchup against Seahawks’ slot corner Jamar Taylor. Among all wideouts without a drop, nobody has more targets than Godwin’s 62.
After not scoring or topping triple-digit receiving yards for five weeks, DeAndre Hopkins posted consecutive 100-yard performances against the Colts and Raiders and has a superb Week 9 matchup in the UK versus the Jaguars. In that matchups, Hopkins should be shadowed by Jacksonville perimeter corner Tre Herndon, who has struggled after replacing Jalen Ramsey. In the past three games, Hopkins has topped 12 targets. If that trend continues in a favorable matchup, Hopkins looks like a good bet to approach double-digit receptions and continue to improve his True Catch Rate score.
Cooper Kupp continues to amaze 7-catch, 220-yard demolition of Cincinnati’s overmatched secondary. Kupp has consistently been in the top-10 True Catch Rate ranks all season. He’s been so dominant catching the ball that Kupp’s TCR actually dropped from 94.4% in Week 7 to 92.1% due to his fourth drop of the season. Yes, Kupp’s monster outing could have been even bigger if not for the second-half drop. With the Rams on bye, Kupp is assured of another week in the top-10 when LA emerges from the week off to face the Steelers in Pittsburgh.
Even with QB Sam Darnold back in the lineup, Jamison Crowder has been quiet the past two games, where he’s totaled just 50 receiving yards on seven catches. While Crowder remains reliable, he’s been held to 40 or fewer yards in 5-of-7 games. Crowder’s 1.73 yards per route run ranks 56th among qualifying NFL wideouts and his 6.4 yards per target figure ranks 75th. Crowder is racking up plenty of innocuous catches but simply not making enough impact downfield.
Continue Reading Week 9 Advanced Fantasy Metrics…
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