Are We Overthinking Alvin Kamara in 2024?
There seems to come a point during every NFL player’s career where they lose a step. With running backs, that time comes when they approach the age of 30. Many fantasy managers are wary of running backs with much mileage on their legs. One player who seems undervalued in fantasy football this year is running back Alvin Kamara. Due to his age (29) and injury history, it seems people are content letting Kamara fall to the fourth round in drafts. According to FantasyData, Kamara’s current ADP is 44th overall and RB16. Here are a few reasons why fantasy managers are overthinking the value of Kamara.
Entering his eighth NFL season, Kamara has never had a season with 1,000+ rushing yards. But rushing is never what made him valuable for fantasy football. His usage as a pass-catcher makes him an elite PPR running back. He has been a top-16 running back in PPR, scoring every year of his career. Even last season, he finished as RB11 despite missing four games. His 17.9 points per game last season ranked third amongst running backs. Also, his 75 receptions trailed only Breece Hall(76) amongst running backs. With the Saints’ lack of offseason additions, there is no reason to believe Kamara’s usage will change in 2024. He is still the lead running back, even though Jamaal Williams will take away occasional carries. Even with a 58% snap percentage last season, Kamara had no problem producing elite fantasy numbers. Also, it helps that the Saints still have Derek Carr as their starting quarterback. He is unafraid to check down and give Kamara plenty of reception opportunities. His 86 targets last season led all Saints not named Chris Olave. Plus, the Saints are not expected to be a good team in 2024, meaning they will be trailing often and throwing the ball plenty.
One addition to the Saints’ offense that should help Kamara’s usage is their new offensive coordinator. The Saints hired former San Francisco 49ers quarterback coach Klint Kubiak as their OC. Kubiak comes to New Orleans after working with offensive guru Kyle Shanahan. One of the critical pieces of the 49ers’ offense last season was running back Christian McCaffrey. He and Kamara have a similar skillset, and both are elite receivers. You can bet Kubiak will want to use Kamara in a role similar to McCaffrey’s last season. Kubiak was last an offensive coordinator of the Minnesota Vikings in 2021. That year, his running backs, Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison, combined to catch 66 passes. All signs point to Kamara once again being used plenty in the passing game, which will allow him to reach his ceiling in fantasy.
How many touchdowns a player scores can make or break their fantasy season. Touchdowns are key in fantasy and can turn a lousy performance into a good one by falling into the endzone. Kamara should have no problem having opportunities to score in 2024. Last season, he was ninth in the NFL in red zone touches and scored all six touchdowns from inside the 20. Even though touchdowns are difficult to predict from year to year, a healthy season from Kamara means he should be able to approach double-digit touchdowns.
Kamara is an excellent target for owners who do not draft a running back in the first few rounds. He can be the RB1 on any team without much concern. Looking at the running back landscape, it is interesting to see Kamara going 25 picks later than Derrick Henry. Henry is older than Kamara and has much more wear and tear on his body. Not to mention, Henry has never been involved much in the passing game. You should not take Henry in the second round if you can get Kamara in the third or fourth. Sometimes, in fantasy football, the best thing to do is not to overthink an elite talent. Kamara has been an elite fantasy player every year of his career, and there is no reason to think that will change in his eighth season.
