Fantasy Impact: Andrew Luck Retires
Where were you when you heard about the sudden retirement of Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck? The 29-year old signal-caller retired while entering his prime. Injuries played a key role in Luck’s demise. He didn’t miss a single game in his first three seasons in the NFL. Although, Luck was hit or sacked 60 more times than any other QB from 2012 to 2014.
Most times knocked down (sacks + hits on passes) since 2012
1. Andrew Luck, 352
2. Matt Ryan, 293
3. Ryan Tannehill, 276— Scott Kacsmar (@ScottKacsmar) June 5, 2015
Luck wasn’t as fortunate during the 2015 season. He encountered his first significant injury in Week 3. Luck suffered a sprained shoulder and was able to finish the game to lead the Colts to a comeback win, but missed the next two weeks to recover. The decision to play through the injury would have career-altering implications. It would also come to light that Luck also played through two broken ribs. This injury required painkillers to be injected simply for him to play. A lacerated kidney and a partially torn abdominal muscle ended Luck’s 2015 season with seven regular-season games left to play. The list of ailments didn’t stop there. His 2016 season was marred by numerous injuries with the most prominent being a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder. The physicality of the NFL game forced Luck to finally undergo shoulder surgery in January 2017. This was notable because his availability would be in limbo until Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season.
Here’s Luck in Grigson’s term
Format: pressure % | sack/hit % (per PFF)
2012: 38.1% | 8%
2013: 37.5% | 6%
2014: 36.2% | 5%
2015: 40.2% | 14%
2016: 44.3% | 9%Luck always played aggressively but the pressures & hits sharply increased in 2015, as O-line $ & talent decreased
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) August 25, 2019
It’s unfortunate that Colts general manager Ryan Grigson did not provide Luck with a quality offensive line. He was replaced by Chris Ballard in 2017 who upgraded the OL. In February 2018, the Colts announced Frank Reich as their new head coach. Luck would go on to finish the 2018 season as the QB5. He had the fourth-highest protection rate (88.6%) with the sixth-highest (46%) pressured completion percentage according to our advanced metrics. Ballard was honored as the Pro Football Writers Association NFL Executive of the Year. The only other QB who accumulated more air yards than Luck was Matt Ryan. Can the Colts recover from this? The short answer is yes. Luck will forever be known as one of the great “what could have been” players of all-time. What effect will Jacoby Brissett have on the Colts offense? Should T.Y. Hilton be downgraded? Is this a good thing or bad thing for Marlon Mack? This article will answer those questions as we look for opportunity in the chaos following Luck’s unforeseen retirement.
Jacoby Brissett Takes Over as the Starting QB
Brissett is not Luck at this stage of his career. His promotion is a downgrade at the QB position for the Colts. Brissett was traded to the Colts by the New England Patriots for WR Phillip Dorsett because of Luck’s injury shortly before the start of the regular season. The third-round selection from the 2016 NFL Draft arrived in Indianapolis without knowing the playbook or developing any rapport with anyone. Brissett was thrust immediately into action relieving Scott Tolzien in the fourth quarter of a Week 1 beat down by the Rams. He was named the starter in Week 2 and never relinquished the role. Brissett finished the season with 3,098 passing yards, 13 passing touchdowns, seven interceptions, 260 rushing yards, and four rushing touchdowns. He was the QB13 or higher in five of his first nine starts in 2017.
Jacoby Brissett’s 2017 season with the #Colts:
62.4 overall grade
12 turnover-worthy plays
15 big-time throws pic.twitter.com/hu7BKsZFPT— PFF (@PFF) August 25, 2019
Brissett finished 2017 with a respectable true passer rating of 90.3. This metric factors out unpressured throwaways and dropped passes. Brissett showed very good mental toughness, arm strength to make all of the throws, and mobility in Rob Chudzinksi’s offensive scheme. He had a good sense for getting through many progressions on time, but Brissett didn’t consistently deliver the football with anticipation.
My good friends @PFF made this graphic for the #FantasyHour last week showing Jacoby Brissett’s performance and QB rank as a full-time starter in 2017.
Less than ideal, but the current situation is light years different comparably, most noticeably along the offensive line. pic.twitter.com/1GPZEQm6MG
— Brad Evans (@YahooNoise) August 25, 2019
The Colts offense and personnel has improved since Brissett’s stint as the starter. Head coach Frank Reich’s scheme is built on quick passes, a diverse run game, and two-and three-man route combinations. He has a history of calling plays that allows his QBs to win against zone and man-to-man coverages. Brissett played well enough back in 2017 to convince the Colts coaching staff and front office to keep him on the roster. This decision could pay dividends in 2019. Brissett spent his rookie season learning the Patriots offense and observing future Hall of Future Tom Brady. He spent his second season starting 15 games for the Colts. Brissett spent 2018 studying Reich’s offense and observing Luck.
#Colts Jacoby Brissett is a starting caliber winning QB. I hope he gets the chance to show it for reasons other than because of an A. Luck injury.
— Louis Riddick (@LRiddickESPN) August 17, 2019
The 27-year old QB can be viewed as a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside. Brissett enters a contract year with one of the top OLs in the NFL, a plethora of receiving weapons, a promising RB in Marlon Mack, and a head coach who helped backup QB Nick Foles win a Super Bowl in Philadelphia.
T.Y. Hilton’s Projection is Still Feasible
Asked TY Hilton if this was the best camp he’s had in his 8-year career. “I think so,” he said.
Then he dropped this stat: He’s caught 29 of 30 targets in live sessions. (Rock Ya-Sin had the lone breakup.) No one on this offense has looked better, and it’s not close.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) August 12, 2019
Hilton had an impressive training camp without Luck being present. He continues to be one of the top deep threats in the NFL. Brissett has the arm strength to deliver the football to Hilton. He remains in the WR1 discussion. It is important to have the proper expectations after analyzing his splits with and without Luck.
Hilton had just 57 receptions, 966 receiving yards, and four touchdowns with Brissett in 2017 with a 23 percent target share. Were you aware that his touchdowns were a career-low? Hilton’s receptions and receiving yards were also below his career averages with his rookie season being the only one worse. The time he and Brissett spent together in 2017 is positive as the Colts go through this transition. The expertise and offensive scheme that Reich brings to the table is being undervalued. Hilton can still deliver on our 2019 projection.
| Targets | Receptions | Receiving Yards | TDs | PPR |
| 102 | 71 | 1,150 | 6 | 222 |
Hilton’s average draft position has been slowly dropping all summer with the news surrounded Luck’s health. It’s moved from the late second to the late third over the last few weeks. Luck’s retirement announcement will drop it even further. You should expect an overreaction, but I project it settles in the mid-fourth round. If you are participating in a fantasy draft this week Hilton may be available as late as the fifth round.
Losing Luck has to hurt TY Hilton. On the bright side, Hilton still very likely to lead IND in targets with one of the best play callers in the league. Can’t pull Hilton out of the Top 24.
— Jacob Rickrode (@ClutchFantasy) August 26, 2019
What effect will Luck’s retirement have on the Colts running game?
Marlon Mack’s Workhorse Potential
Ballard has touted all offseason that the Colts believe Mack can play all three downs. The team did draft an RB in the 2019 NFL Draft and signed Spencer Ware to a one year contract with only $125,000 guaranteed. An ankle injury resulted in the Colts placing him on the Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list, which means he is not eligible to play for the Colts for the rest of the season. After returning from injury in Week 6 of last season, Mack accumulated 1,068 yards and 10 touchdowns across 13 games, including the playoffs. He handled 59 percent of the touches in the Colts back over his first seven games back. Mack handled 78 percent of the team’s touches over the final six games of the season. The Colts went 5-1 over that span of time. The team will return all five starting offensive linemen from last season after finishing fourth in adjusted line yards according to Football Outsiders. The Colts will lean on Mack more with Brissett under center.
Me with Marlon Mack at remaining drafts: pic.twitter.com/FNx9oEtlRo
— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) August 26, 2019
Luck’s retirement news could push Mack’s ADP into the fifth round. The biggest flaw in his game is his pass-catching ability after ending the season with only 17 receptions. Mack’s usage on third down’s during the preseason could be a tease of things to come. This would be a change from 2018, as he lost work on third downs to Nyheim Hines. The additional opportunities on the field could lead to increased PPR fantasy points production. Luck’s retirement shouldn’t alter your outlook regarding Mack. He could end up being a steal in fantasy drafts given the Colts offensive situation.
Conclusion
Probably no surprise, but fans calling Colts HQ today, demanding refunds for their season tickets.
— Zak Keefer (@zkeefer) August 26, 2019
It’s important not to overreact to the news of Luck’s retirement. We haven’t seen the best from Brissett. He could take a step forward before our eyes with his development this season. As I mentioned at the beginning of the article, there is always an opportunity in chaos. You should take a contrarian stance and collect as many shares of Hilton and Mack in your remaining fantasy football drafts before the end of the season.
Do you agree or disagree with some of this analysis? Find me on Twitter @EricNMoody and let’s discuss it.
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- Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData, Pro Football Focus, Football Outsiders, and RotoViz.
