Fantasy Football Tiers: Player Rankings and When To Draft Them

Eric Moody’s Fantasy Football Tiers (8/23)

Have you ever heard of using tiers in your fantasy football draft? A tier is a group of players who are expected to have similar fantasy point production The goal is for you to draft as many players as possible in the higher tiers because they all have similar value. Players not in that tier would serve as a downgrade because they represent a substantial drop off in fantasy points. Tiering takes your focus away from taking a certain position with each round of the fantasy draft. Can you remember participating in a draft prioritizing a running back or wide receiver during a specific round? My goal is to not see you select lower players at certain positions at the expense of superior players at other positions. It’s critical to adapt to what the fantasy draft is giving you. Monitoring your tiers are a leading indicator of the supply and demand of quality players at each position. Tiering allows you to maximize the value of the available draft choices. It also prevents you from looking like a deer frozen in the headlights. This takes place when the player you want is drafted a few picks before you’re on the clock. The sweat beads have formed on your forehead. This scenario usually results in a selection you immediately regret. Tiering helps you avoid this scenario. This article will fuse quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, kickers, and defenses into tiers. I will use our advanced metrics to highlight specific players in each tier that I’m high on. 

• Davante Adams had the six-highest number of air yards last season. The WRs with a larger target share was DeAndre Hopkins (32 percent) and Keenan Allen (29 percent). 
• David Johnson finished last season with the eighth-highest opportunity share (The percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets). This provides him a high floor in 2019 with the ceiling of finishing as the RB1 in PPR formats in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offensive scheme. 

• Julio Jones led all WRs in targets (170) and yards per pass route (3.27). These are two statistics he consistently ranks high in every season. Jones’ true catch rate of 85 percent (Divides total receptions by total catchable targets) is also impressive considering his 28 percent target share. 
• Travis Kelce has averaged 16 PPR fantasy points per game over the last three seasons. He set career highs in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdowns in 2018. The only tight ends with a higher yards per pass route were George Kittle (3.50) and O.J. Howard (3.1). 
• Odell Beckham‘s efficiency will increase in 2019 with Baker Mayfield under center. As a rookie, he had 75 pass attempts of 20 yards or more with a completion percentage of 41.3 percent which ranked ninth amongst all QBs. 

• Mike Evans has had five consecutive seasons with 1,000 or more receiving yards. He led all WRs in air yards last season and has missed only three games in his NFL career. 
• The trade of Duke Johnson provides Nick Chubb with even more opportunities this upcoming season. He faced eight-man boxes on 34 percent of his rushing attempts in 2018. This was the fourth most of any RB last season. The presence of Beckham should alter this percentage dramatically in 2019. 
• Joe Mixon finished last season with an opportunity rate of 79 percent which ranked seventh amongst RBs. He also finished fifth with a Breakaway Run Rate of 8.4 percent and seventh in yards created. These trends will continue in 2019. 

• Dalvin Cook averaged 18.1 opportunities and 15 PPR fantasy points per game in 15 career games. The addition of Gary Kubiak as the assistant head coach and offensive advisor paints an even more positive fantasy outlook for him moving forward. 
• Kerryon Johnson averaged 15 touches and 85.4 total yards per game before a knee injury cut his season short. In fact, he was on pace for nearly 1,400 total yards prior to the injury averaging 0.90 fantasy points per opportunity. 
• Amari Cooper accumulated 53 receptions, 725 receiving yards, and six touchdowns in nine games with the Cowboys. He owned a 24 percent target share and led the team in air yards during that time frame. Cooper’s fantasy outlook in 2019 looks promising. 
• George Kittle led all tight ends in yards per pass route with 3.49 and yards after the catch (873). 

• Aaron Jones averaged 88.2 total yards and 17.6 PPR fantasy points per game from Week 8 to Week 16. He also has an athletic profile that is similar to Christian McCaffrey according to Player Profiler. 
• Leonard Fournette has averaged 22.6 opportunities and 91.5 total yards per game since his rookie season back in 2017. The addition of Nick Foles at QB will legitimize the Jaguars passing game in 2019.
• D.J. Moore didn’t begin playing over half of the Panthers offensive snaps until Week 8. He finished the season averaging 2.12 yards per pass route run. This was comparable to other household names such as Antonio Brown (2.11) and Cooper (2.13). 
• Devonta Freeman averaged 18 PPR fantasy points per game from 2015 to 2017. This only RB that had a higher average during that span of time was Todd Gurley (18.2). The Falcons have also made offseason additions to strengthen its offensive line. Freeman is a nice value at his current average draft position and the RB you never knew you wanted. 

• Tyler Lockett had a true catch rate of 96.6 percent on only 71 targets in 2018 averaging 2.67 yards per pass route run. Russell Wilson had a perfect QB rating when targeting him. We have Lockett projected to lead the Seahawks in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and PPR fantasy points in 2019. 
• Chris Carson continues to be undervalued in fantasy drafts this summer. He averaged nearly 18 rushing attempts, 82.2 rushing yards, and 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game last season. The Seahawks coaching staff have mentioned publicly that they plan to use him more as a receiver out of the backfield this season. Carson and Saquon Barkley were the only two RBs to finish the 2018 season in the top-10 for rushing attempts and Juke Rate (isolates an RB’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches). 
• Josh Jacobs has an athletic profile that is similar to Arian Foster according to Player Profiler. He will be actively involved the Oakland Raiders backfield as a rusher and receiver, but don’t expect Jacobs to be used a workhorse. This fantasy outlook provides you with more details on what to expect from him in 2019.
• Mark Ingram provides you with an RB1 ceiling and an RB2 floor in the Ravens run-heavy scheme. The top-12 RBs in PPR formats last season all averaged 274 touches in 2018. We project Ingram to see 265 opportunities this season. This fantasy outlook provides you more insight into what to expect from him in 2019. 
• Derrick Henry’s rushing totals have increased in each of his three NFL seasons. He set a career-high in 2018 with 1,059. Dion Lewis will still play a role in the Titans backfield after signing a four-year contract worth $20 million. We project Henry to see 263 opportunities in 2019 and you can read more about his fantasy outlook here.  
• Allen Robinson struggled in his first season with the Chicago Bears due to QB Mitch Trubisky’s accuracy. He finished 2018 with a true catch rate of 86 percent. This was impressive considering only 68 percent of his targets from Trubisky were deemed catchable. An offseason working out together with Trubisky and more time to master head coach Matt Nagy’s offense make Robinson one of my favorite bounce-back candidates in 2019. 
• James White averaged 6.5 yards per touch and 11.3 touches per game in 2018. He’ll continue to be a key contributor to the New England Patriots offense in 2019. White could see a higher target share this season due to the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. 

• Christian Kirk will benefit in 2019 in Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offensive scheme. He’s expected to see an increased number of targets and already has continuity with QB Kyler Murray from their time at Texas A&M. Kirk was very productive as a rookie last season in the dumpster fire that was the Arizona offense. Cardinals QB Josh Rosen had an accuracy rating (1 represents the least accurate and 4 represents the most accurate pass) of 2.5 in 2018. 
• Robby Anderson will have an opportunity to expand his route tree this season with the Jets in Adam Gase’s offense. He developed great chemistry with QB Sam Darnold over the last month of the season. Anderson averaged 10.3 targets, 6.7 receptions, 104 receiving yards, and 23 PPR points per game from Week 14 to 16. 
• Alshon Jeffery ended the 2018 season with only 92 targets. He averaged 102 targets per season from 2015 to 2017. Jeffery was very efficient averaging 2.01 fantasy points per target. You shouldn’t be concerned about the Eagles signing DeSean Jackson. Attacking defenses vertically has never been Jeffery’s strength. He had a 58 percent success rate on contested targets and should continue to thrive in the short to intermediate parts of the field. 
• Sterling Shepard will open the regular season as the Giants No. 1 receiver. He already has a rapport with QB Eli Manning and WR Golden Tate will be suspended for four games. Few WRs being drafted at Shepard’s average draft position will have his target share. 
• Latavius Murray was signed by the Saints to fill the void left by Mark Ingram and his 13.3 touches per game. Alvin Kamara will never be used as a bell cow in New Orleans. 

• Will Fuller has averaged six targets, four receptions, and 71 receiving yards in 11 career games with Houston Texans QB Deshaun Watson. 
• Phillip Lindsay isn’t physically built to be a workhorse. Royce Freeman will have a role in the Denver Broncos backfield. The team brought in Mike Munchak as it’s offensive line coach which bodes well for the outlook of the Broncos backfield in 2019. 
• Dak Prescott’s statistical production in numerous areas increased once WR Amari Cooper arrived in Dallas. The duo has had an entire offseason to work together. 
• Austin Hooper set career highs with 71 receptions, 660 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. He’ll continue to see opportunities in the Falcons explosive offense. If you miss out on Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Zach Ertz in your fantasy draft you should keep Hooper on your watch list. 
• Dion Lewis is an afterthought in many fantasy drafts, but someone you should stash on your bench. He will have a role in the Titans offense in 2019. 

• Jaylen Samuels averaged 109 total yards per game in the three James Conner missed in 2018. 
• Adam Gase has a history of heavily targeting his slot receiver. Jamison Crowder was signed for a reason.
• John Brown is paired with a QB in Josh Allen who had 65 pass attempts of 20 yards or more last season. At his current ADP, you should be leaving all of your fantasy drafts with him on your roster. 
• DeSean Jackson was signed by the Eagles to attack defenses vertically. His 14.4 yards per reception in 2018 ranked second behind Mike Evans (14.6). Even at 32-years old, his 1.7 target separation confirms Jackson can still get behind the defense. 
• Michael Gallup gained easy separation (1.6 yards per target) and averaged a respectable 7.5 yards per target in 2018. He has an opportunity to see 100 targets this season opposite Cooper.
• The Bills have surrounded Josh Allen with offensive weapons this offseason. He has had an entire offseason to master the team’s offense. Allen has been one of my favorite late-round QBs to target in drafts this summer.

• The Ravens offense will have enough rushing attempts to feed both Ingram and Justice Hill. 
• Drew Brees had a QB rating of 133.4 when targeting Tre’Quan Smith in 2018. He could see additional offensive snaps and targets with the uncertainty around the Saints No. 2 receiver. 
• Kenny Stills finished 2016 and 2017 as a top-30 fantasy WR. The targets left behind by Danny Amendola and the possibility of Ryan Fitzpatrick being named the Dolphins starting QB are reasons to add him to your fantasy team in 2019. 
• Tony Pollard has league-winning upside in the Cowboys offense if Ezekiel Elliott actually misses the 2019 season.