Josh Jacobs Fantasy Impact in 2019

Josh Jacobs Fantasy

The Oakland Raiders selected Josh Jacobs No. 24 overall in the 2019 NFL Draft to replace Marshawn Lynch. Many have touted Jacobs as the best running back prospect in this year’s class for months leading into the NFL Draft. This article will identify the pros, cons, and fantasy impact he will have this upcoming season. 

Pros

Jacobs had the highest grade prospect grade amongst all running backs according to NFL.com and graded 14th overall. Lance Zierlein, Draft Analyst for NFL.com, had this to say about the former Crimson Tide running back:

Prototypical combination of size and skill-set as an every-down runner with the ability to slash or impose his will on any given snap. Jacobs runs with good bend, vision, and burst, and he proved to be an effective pass-catcher out of the backfield or from the slot. He will probe and burst, but he could become more elusive with better tempo as a runner. Jacobs is a decisive runner with outstanding one-cut talent to become a bellcow lead back.

Jacobs opportunities were limited at Alabama because they had the best running back by committee in the nation. Were you aware that four Crimson Tide running backs had 60 rushing attempts or more and all of them had Pro Football Focus rushing grades of 77 or higher? Jacobs final season at Alabama was his most productive due to seeing his highest number of opportunities.

Alabama RBs (2016-18); rushing and receiving stats

Josh Jacobs (#Raiders)
Damien Harris (#Patriots) pic.twitter.com/xtTEBFkG5p

— Sports Info Solutions (@SportsInfo_SIS) April 27, 2019

Jacobs had 299 career touches at Alabama and only three games of 15 or more rushing attempts with very few injuries on his ledger. He averaged a missed tackle forced once every 3.7 rushing attempts, had the seventh highest Elusive rating (109.8) and averaged 4.07 yards after contact per carry according to Pro Football Focus. 

41% of Josh Jacobs’ carries last year went for a 1st down or TD – the highest percentage of any RB in college football

— Mike Renner (@PFF_Mike) March 20, 2019

Jacobs is in an excellent position to open the 2019 regular season as the Raiders starting running back. Marshawn Lynch has retired after two seasons in Oakland. Isaiah Crowell was signed during free agency, but will miss this upcoming season due to a torn Achilles suffered during an offseason workout. This leaves Jacobs battling Jalen Richard, DeAndre Washington, Chris Warren III, and the recently signed Doug Martin for touches. 

Jacobs’ ability a receiver is another great indicator of success as a rookie in Oakland. He ran various pass routes as a receiver out of the backfield and has displayed the ability to track the football like a wide receiver. Jacobs forced 21 missed tackles from 48 receptions on 56 targets in three seasons with the Crimson Tide. He will see opportunities in the Raiders offensive scheme. Were you aware Gruden’s offense has produced numerous running backs with 1,000 or more rushing yards in 10 out of 12 seasons as head coach? He’s also had a running back with 40 or more receptions in nine out of 12 seasons. New Raiders general manager Mike Mayock referred to Jacobs as a “foundational player.” Let’s review some of the challenges he will face in 2019.

Cons

The Raiders offensive line struggled last season finishing No. 20 according to the Pro Football Focus O-Line rankings. The unit finished 25th in rushing yards per game and struggled in pass protection. The Raiders O-Line allowed quarterback Derek Carr to be sacked 51 times (tied for the third most sacks taken by a quarterback in the NFL. This was a unit that ranked in the top-5 according to PFF two years ago. The Raiders did not select an offensive lineman in the 2019 NFL Draft, but signed Trent Brown to a four-year, $66 million deal in free agency. Gruden and Raiders O-Line coach Tom Cable is experimenting with placing different players at different positions. The team has one of the heaviest starting offensive lines in NFL. Kolton Miller stands at 6’8 and weighs 330 pounds. Denzelle Good is 6’5 and 345 pounds, Rodney Hudson is 6’2 and 300 pounds, and Gabe Jackson is 6’3 and 335 pounds. Did you know Brown is the NFL’s biggest player at 380 pounds?

The Raiders O-Line finished the season ranked 13th in Adjusted Line Yards and 28th in Open Field Yards last season according to Football Outsiders. These stats suggest that the team was heavily dependent on its offensive line to make the running game work. Jacobs has the athleticism to overcome poor to mediocre offensive line play. As a rookie, improved run blocking and pass protection from the O-Line would improve his fantasy upside in addition to the entire Raiders offense. 

Jacobs will have to beat multiple running backs who have a season in Gruden’s system under their belts to lead the Raiders backfield in touches. Gruden has also displayed a tendency to lean on multiple running backs throughout his head coaching career. Martin and Richard are Jacobs biggest threats to fantasy success. Martin’s playing time increased once Lynch was out for the season. He played 362 offensive snaps in 2018 and touched the football or was targeted on 54.1% of them. Richard continues to be underrated entering his fourth NFL season. He had a career-high 68 receptions last season and established himself as one of the top receiving backs in the league. Richard had the second most yards per route run (2.26) at the running back position according to Pro Football Focus. The only other running back who ranked higher in that metric was Tarik Cohen (2.37). 

Conclusion

Jacobs was the first and only running back selected in the first round. This means that the Raiders will provide him with all the touches he can handle during this season. There are 10 running backs drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft to score 230 or more PPR fantasy points during their rookie season since 2000. 

Jacobs will see enough touches per game in 2019 to become number 11. 

• Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData, Pro Football Focus, and RotoViz.
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