Chris Carson Fantasy Value
Last summer when anyone spoke about the Seahawks backfield one name that kept coming up with Rashaad Penny. The team’s first-round pick in the 2018 NFL Draft out of San Diego State led the nation with 2,248 rushing yards and scored 23 touchdowns on 289 carries. Penny finished fifth in Heisman Trophy voting while earning first-team All-American and All-Mountain West honors. Heading into training camp there was no enthusiasm when you heard the name of 2017 seventh-round draft pick Chris Carson out of Oklahoma State. That began to change when he emerged as an early training camp favorite to earn the Seahawks starting RB job. Carson never looked back and finished the 2018 season as the RB15 in PPR formats playing in 14 games. This article will share three reasons he continues to be undervalued in fantasy football drafts this summer.
1. Average Draft Position
Carson averaged nearly 18 rushing attempts, 82.2 rushing yards, and 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game last season. He wasn’t used much as a receiver out of the backfield in 2018 averaging around two targets per game. Carson provided fantasy players with high-end RB2 value averaging 14.4 PPR fantasy points per game. He is currently the RB27 in 12-team PPR formats. Carson is being drafted behind Oakland Raiders rookie RB Josh Jacobs and Chicago Bears rookie RB David Montgomery. He is also drafted behind Green Bay Packers RB Aaron Jones, Indianapolis Colts RB Marlon Mack, and Tennessee Titans RB Derrick Henry. All of the RBs mentioned have narratives and statistical analysis surrounding them that have affected their ADP. Carson’s ADP implies that he is an afterthought. That is a mistake you shouldn’t make.
2. Advanced RB Metrics Paint an Intriguing Outlook
Did you know that Carson finished last season ranked fourth in rushing yards per game? The chart below is the top-20 RBs ranked by rushing yards per game.
| Player Name | Rushing Attempts | Rushing Yards Per Game | Rushing TDs Per Game |
| Ezekiel Elliott | 20.3 | 95.7 | 0.4 |
| Todd Gurley | 18.3 | 89.4 | 1.2 |
| Joe Mixon | 16.9 | 83.4 | 0.6 |
| Chris Carson | 17.6 | 82.2 | 0.6 |
| Saquon Barkley | 16.3 | 81.7 | 0.7 |
| Marlon Mack | 16.2 | 75.7 | 0.8 |
| Kareem Hunt | 16.5 | 74.9 | 0.6 |
| James Conner | 16.5 | 74.8 | 0.9 |
| Melvin Gordon | 14.6 | 73.8 | 0.8 |
| Sony Michel | 16.1 | 71.6 | 0.5 |
| Lamar Miller | 15.1 | 69.5 | 0.4 |
| Phillip Lindsay | 12.8 | 69.1 | 0.6 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 13.7 | 68.6 | 0.4 |
| Derrick Henry | 13.4 | 66.2 | 0.8 |
| Gus Edwards | 12.5 | 65.3 | 0.2 |
| Adrian Peterson | 15.7 | 65.1 | 0.4 |
| Kerryon Johnson | 11.8 | 64.1 | 0.3 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 15 | 62.7 | 0.5 |
| Nick Chubb | 11.9 | 62.1 | 0.5 |
| Aaron Jones | 11.1 | 60.8 | 0.7 |
Carson ranked 11th in touchdowns per game. He played on 52.4 percent of the Seahawks offensive snaps. Carson showed he could handle a large workload by finishing the 2018 season with an Opportunity Share of 58 percent. Opportunity Share is the percentage of the total team RB carries plus targets.
Are you aware that Carson and Saquon Barkley were the only two to finish the 2018 season in the top-10 for rushing attempts and Juke Rate? Juke Rate is another advanced metric that we provide subscribers that isolates an RB’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles (displayed to the immediate left) by the total number of touches (rushing attempts plus receptions). Carson also finished 10th in Yards Created. This metric, originated by NFL.com Fantasy Football writer and podcaster Graham Barfield, defines all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the RB after the first evaded tackle. Carson also had 12 rushing attempts of 15 plus yards or Breakaway Runs. This was more than Phillip Lindsay (11), Alvin Kamara (10), Marlon Mack (10) or Christian McCaffrey (8).
The perception is that Penny could threaten Carson’s workload this upcoming season. Both RBs can coexist in 2019. The only other team that averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Seahawks (33) last season was the Baltimore Ravens (33.5). The Seahawks led the NFL in rushing yards per game with 155. Mike Davis left in free agency. He accounted for 112 rushing attempts and 42 targets in 2018. The Seahawks have not made any notable RB additions this offseason. Carson and Penny can coexist in 2019 creating a formidable 1-2 punch that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer can leverage. We project Carson to finish this upcoming season with more rushing attempts, but Penny to step up more as a receiver out of the backfield. It would prudent for the Seahawks not to lean so heavily on the running game in 2019 since they have six-time Pro Bowler and Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson under center. The expectation is that the team will be more balanced, but it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see the Seahawks finish in the top-10 in rushing attempts and rushing yards.
3. Age, Athleticism, and Opportunity Matters
This upcoming season will be Carson’s third as an NFL RB. He will turn 25-years old in September and broke out as a 24-year old last season. And now, you’re thinking is Carson’s fantasy production sustainable. His athleticism is comparable to other high profile RBs. Carson was highly recruited coming out of Parkview High School and had offers to play for numerous NCAA powerhouses including the University of Georgia. A torn ACL during his senior year in high school altered his trajectory. Carson decided to attend Butler Community College where he thrived before transferring to Oklahoma State. He was bothered by a sprained ankle in 2015 and a broken thumb cut his senior short. Carson’s injury history negatively affected his draft stock as he was the second to last RB selected in the 2017 NFL Draft. The rookie RB class from this draft included Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Tarik Cohen, Joe Mixon, Marlon Mack, and Matt Breida. Carson, in my opinion, has the skill set and opportunity to be one of the top RBs to come out of this class. He broke his ankle during his rookie season, but Carson provided fantasy players a glimpse of what he’s capable of last season.
The Seahawks will be running the same offensive scheme and Carson has less competition for touches. Were you aware that 12 RBs scored 230 or more PPR fantasy points last season? Carson scored 201 PPR fantasy points in 2018. He was very close to meeting that floor of 230 to achieve a peak season. Did you know that 218 RBs have had a peak season since 2000?
Nearly 75 percent of the seasons fall between the age range of 23 to 28. Carson is in a prime position to meet or exceed his fantasy production from the 2018 season.
Conclusion
Imagine selecting Carson anywhere from the fifth to the seventh round of your 12-team PPR fantasy football draft. Is he your first RB drafted or your third? Either way, you have put yourself in a position to succeed with an RB who has the potential to finish as a high-end RB2. The goal of any fantasy football draft is to assemble a team of players that will meet or outperform their ADP. Carson is one of those players and someone you shouldn’t overlook on fantasy draft day. What surprised you the most from reading this Fantasy Outlook? Follow me on Twitter @EricNMoody and let’s talk about it.
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- Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData
