Advanced WR Metrics: The Predictive Ability of Air Yards

Davante Adams (Green Bay Packers) is a legitimate candidate to finish as the fantasy WR1 in PPR formats in 2019. He had a significant increase in air yards last season after only averaging 557 per season from 2016 to 2017. Adams enter his sixth NFL season coming off career-highs in receptions, receiving yards, touchdowns, and air yards. Did you know no other WR had a higher percentage of their team’s total receiving yards and touchdowns? All signs suggest new Packers head coach Matt LaFleur will place his most talented offensive players in positions to succeed. The departure of WR Randall Cobb will provide Adams an opportunity to run more routes lined up in the slot in 2019 in order to create mismatches. He played around 20 percent of his offensive snaps from the slot, but Adams was very successful when he did. He has a very high floor as the Packers No. 1 receiver and little competition for targets. This could be the season Adams leads the NFL in targets and air yards. We have him projected to finish the 2019 season as the WR2 in PPR formats. 

Michael Thomas (New Orleans Saints) has ranked in the top-10 in air yards in back to back seasons. The Saints continue to transition towards a run-heavy offense. Were you aware that the team posted its second season in a row with fewer than 540 pass attempts from QB Drew Brees? This was notable because the Saints had at least 650 or more pass attempts per season in the seven prior seasons. Thomas has still been able to thrive despite that trend. He’s averaged 9.2 targets, 7.2 receptions, 83 receiving yards, and 18.1 PPR fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. Thomas has had 100 or more receptions in back to back seasons. Did you know he led all WRs with 120 or more targets in True Catch Rate (89.3%) last season? Thomas caught 74 percent of his contest targets in 2018. 

We have Thomas projected to finish this upcoming season as the WR4 in PPR formats. 

Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh Steelers) may spend too much time on social media airing his dirty laundry, but his statistical body of work speaks for itself. Brown has averaged 11.1 targets, 7.5 receptions, 99 receiving yards, and 22 PPR fantasy points per game over his last 92 games. The last season he didn’t finish as a top-five fantasy wide receiver was 2012. Brown has finished in the top-five in air yards from 2014 to 2017. The 31-year old receiver will now be catching passes from Oakland Raiders QB Derek Carr. The team has 359 targets waiting to be claimed and the most air yards available after numerous mid and offseason changes. Brown is the Raiders’ most viable candidate to lead the team in those two areas. He is a nice value in the second round of PPR fantasy football drafts. We have him projected to finish 2019 as the WR6 in PPR formats. 

Brandin Cooks (Los Angeles Rams) has finished each of the last three seasons ranked in the top-10 in air yards. He’s averaged 7.6 targets, five receptions, 71.5 receiving yards, and 0.4 touchdowns per game since 2014. 

Here is a nice statistical nugget from @RyanMc23‘s Football Daily Dose @rotoworld:

Brandin Cooks became the first player in NFL history to record three 1,000-yard seasons to begin his career with three separate franchises. #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/4fH7pNHfqS

— Moody (@EricNMoody) December 3, 2018

The perception surrounding Cooks is that he’s boom or bust. He doesn’t see a high number of targets per game and scores on long touchdowns. There is some truth to that, but also reasons for optimism. For the first time in three years, Cooks doesn’t have to learn a new offensive scheme. He also had his highest target share in the Super Bowl against the New England Patriots. The Rams have a number of receiving weapons that include Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and RB Todd Gurley. We have him projected to finish 2019 as the WR17 in PPR formats. Cooks and Wood both had an eerily similar number of air yards last season. One approach is to select whichever one remains on the draft board. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh Steelers) enters this season with more than 2,300 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns over the past two seasons. The 22-year old receiver broke out at an early age which bodes for many WR1 fantasy seasons in his future. Brown’s departure frees up additional targets and air yards for Smith-Schuster this season. Did you know 92 of his 166 targets in 2018 came while he was lined up in the slot? The presence of James Washington and Donte Moncrief will allow Smith-Schuster will line up all over the field as the No. 1 receiver. We have him projected to finish 2019 as the WR5 in PPR formats.

T.Y. Hilton (Indianapolis Colts) has averaged 8.4 targets, 4.7 receptions, 77.5 receiving yards, 0.3 touchdowns, and 14.5 PPR fantasy points per game since 2015. He’s been a top-14 fantasy receiver in two of the last three seasons. Hilton has averaged 883 air yards per season over that time frame. Were you aware that he led the NFL in receiving yards from Week 10 on last season? Hilton could easily outperform his current average draft position and should continue to lead the Colts in air yards. We have him projected to finish this upcoming season as the WR13 

Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers) has commanded a high target share during his entire NFL career. He’s averaged nine targets, 6.1 receptions, 75.6 receiving yards, and 16.2 PPR fantasy points per game since 2013. Last season Allen ranked in the top-15 in both air yards and yards after the catch. These trends will continue in 2019. Tight end Hunter Henry and WR Mike Williams will absorb the targets and air yards vacated by Tyrell Williams. Allen will continue to be the Chargers go-to receiver. We have him projected to finish the 2019 season as the WR10. 

Rapid Fire Analysis

• Robert Woods (Los Angeles Rams) saw an increase in targets, receptions, and receiving yards per game in 2018 without being affected by the addition of Cooks. 
• Russell Wilson had a perfect passer rating throwing to Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks) last season. The retirement of Doug Baldwin frees up additional and air yards. Lockett is in a prime position to outperform his average draft position. He performed very well with Baldwin out of the lineup. 

• Odell Beckham (Cleveland Browns) averaged 10.5 targets, 6.6 receptions, 93 receiving yards, 0.7 receiving touchdowns, and 21 PPR points per game with the New York Giants. The only WR with a higher number of receiving yards per game in NFL history is Julio Jones. Beckham was able to accomplish these numbers with QB Eli Manning under center. He now gets an upgrade in Browns QB Baker Mayfield. Beckham will continue to see a high number of targets and air yards per game.
• The presence of Beckham is a good thing for Jarvis Landry (Cleveland Browns). He’ll have an opportunity to run more underneath routes in order to maximize his yards after the catch. Landry is another WR value at his current average draft position with all of the attention Beckham is rightfully receiving. 
• Will Kenny Golladay (Detroit Lions) be able to match his statistical production from last season? He’s another nice WR value in fantasy drafts. Golladay will continue to be a target magnet and lead the Lions in air yards considering his competition. Many were concerned about the team’s offense under head coach Matt Patricia heading into the 2018 season. The concerns are still there with the addition of Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell. One reason for optimism is thinking back to how he used Baldwin during his time in Seattle. 

• The Titans finished the regular season with the second-fewest pass attempts in the NFL. Corey Davis (Tennessee Titans) struggled to produce despite leading the team in targets and air yards. He played on 88.5 percent of the offensive snaps and averaged seven targets per game. Davis did struggle with drops finishing the season with 10. The only other WR with more in 2018 was Devin Funchess (11). The addition of Adam Humphries in free agency and A.J. Brown in the NFL Draft will negatively affect Davis’ air yards and targets in 2019. 
• The return of A.J. Green impacts Tyler Boyd (Cincinnati Bengals) target share and air yards. The good news is that the Bengals didn’t add any additional WRs in free agency or the NFL Draft. Boyd’s finished last season with a true catch rate of 87.4 percent. This was impressive considering he caught passes from QB Andy Dalton and Jeff Driskel in 2018. 
• The hype surrounding a breakout season from Chris Godwin (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) continues to gain momentum. He’ll have an opportunity to improve his target share and line up all over the field including the slot in the Buccaneer’s vertical passing attack. 
• Stefon Diggs (Minnesota Vikings) surpassed 1,000 receiving yards and scored a career-high nine touchdowns last season. He’s at a prime age for a WR1 season.  

There are four WRs worth highlighting in this tier that could outperform their current ADP:

• Amari Cooper (Dallas Cowboys) averaged 8.5 targets per game in 11 games with the Cowboys last season. That was a career-high for him. This trend will continue in 2019 which will result in a higher number of air yards. 
• Robby Anderson (New York Jets) is in a very good position with QB Sam Darnold to be the first Jets receiver since 2015 to surpass 1,050 receiving yards. It remains to be seen if the team’s new head coach will follow through on his about Anderson running a variety of different routes. The risk is worth taking considering Anderson’s current ADP.
• A.J. Green (Cincinnati Bengals) has accumulated 1,000 or more receiving yards in six of the eight seasons he’s played 10 games or more. He averaged 8.6 targets, 5.1 receptions, 77.1 receiving yards, 62 air yards, and 17 PPR fantasy points per game last season before a toe injury ended his 2018 season. As a gentle reminder, Green is a WR who’s averaged 17.1 PPR fantasy points per game in 101 games played from 2011 to 2017. It would be wise not to overlook him in fantasy drafts. 
• Allen Robinson (Chicago Bears) finished the 2018 season with a 22 percent target share. QB Mitch Trubisky’s completion percentage was an opportunity. He only completed 29.6 percent of throws greater than 20 yards in 2018. Robinson recorded a True Catch Rate of 86 percent and a drop rate of only 2.1 percent. Bears head coach Matt Nagy may transition to a more pass-heavy approach in his second season. This would help Robinson accumulate more air yards and help with his PPR fantasy points per game production. 

Conclusion

Are you still with me? Good. This article went very deep into air yards. It also provided you with a ton of very valuable information. How will you leverage it in order to make better choices in your fantasy football drafts this summer? Here are some suggestions on how to incorporate it into your draft preparation:

• Highlight specific players in your WR rankings and tiers that you want to target
• ADP is not the end all be all. If there is a WR you want to target then go get him
• Prioritize WRs who average a high number of targets and air yards per game

Do you agree or disagree with some of this analysis? Find me on Twitter @EricNMoody and let’s discuss it. 

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• Data Sources for this article provided by FantasyData

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