Melvin Gordon Fantasy Value
At this time last year, the football community speculated the potential impact of Pittsburgh Steelers’ running back Le’Veon Bell‘s threats to holdout for the entire 2018 NFL season. As it turned out, Bell made good on his threat and missed an entire year of his prime, while also losing millions that he’ll never make up. Meanwhile, the Steelers turned out to be just fine without their star running back and simply plugging in a young James Conner.
Fast forward to 2019 and a similar situation is playing out in Los Angeles. Chargers’ RB Melvin Gordon, unhappy with his fifth-year, rookie-deal salary of $5.6 million, is holding out for a lucrative, long-term contract that would pay him among the NFL’s top running backs. But this era’s devaluation of the running back position makes a lengthy holdout a risky, and expensive proposition.
Like Bell, Gordon is considered one of the league’s best backs and a surefire first-round fantasy football target. But as the draft season gets ready to kickoff, investing a valuable top-10 pick on a player who could potentially miss the season undesirable.
Let’s look at the potential 2019 fantasy football impact out of the Chargers’ backfield.
Melvin Gordon
There’s no denying that Melvin Gordon has been a tremendous fantasy performer since being selected with the 15th pick of the 2015 NFL Draft. Gordon has posted three consecutive RB1 seasons while scoring 12+ touchdowns in each and averaging 50 reception per season. Gordon has proven to be a solid three-down back and particularly stands out with his efficiency in the passing game.
Receiving yards after contact (all positions)
George Kittle 338
Christian McCaffrey 300
Saquon Barkley 285
DJ Moore 278
Albert Wilson 273
JuJu Smith-Schuster 250
Travis Kelce 239
Michael Thomas 221
V. McDonald 213
Melvin Gordon 211
James Conner 211— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 16, 2019
Gordon has also somewhat struggled with injuries, missing two-plus games in three of his four pro seasons. While nobody can predict injuries and Gordon is highly productive and reliable when on the field, the precedent set by Le’Veon Bell’s lost 2018 season means that fantasy footballers should be very wary of targeting Gordon until there is some definitive resolution to his contract impasse.
The Chargers are acting firm with their stance on not caving and the club and Gordon are reportedly $2-3 million annually apart. Meanwhile, QB Philip Rivers voiced his own opinion of having confidence in the team’s other backs. Having the long-time team leader and signal-caller advocate for other players could also lead to potential personal issues that Rivers and Gordon would have to resolve.
In short, the longer Gordon sits out, the more risk is involved with drafting him in 2019 fantasy leagues. Once a guaranteed top-10 pick in every format, Gordon’s ADP has started to plummet. With no end to the holdout in sight, nabbing Gordon even in the top half of the second round is extremely risky.
The LA backfield has been quite productive for fantasy purposes, so rather than avoiding a desirable situation altogether, targeting other Chargers’ backs is a much more viable strategy.
Austin Ekeler
While Gordon has been an excellent all-around player, current Los Angeles RB2 Austin Ekeler has actually been much better in a limited sample size. Ekeler’s career 5.3 yards per carry is far better than Gordon’s 4.0 figure. Additionally, Ekeler is a productive player in the red-zone and very good pass-catcher. In fact, Ekeler’s numbers, especially as a receiver, stand out even more than Gordon’s.
Highest QB rating when targeted (20+) RBs
Kareem Hunt 145.6
Jaylen Samuels 129.7
Tevin Coleman 126.7
M. Breida 123.3
Damien Williams 122.2
Kenyan Drake 115.3
W. Smallwood 114.5
D. Sproles 114.4
Austin Ekeler 114
Melvin Gordon 112.9
Adrian Peterson 112.3
Christian McCaffrey 111.9— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 14, 2019
Ekeler also opened Chargers’ training camp by taking the first handoffs out of the backfield. Last year, Ekeler had three games as the club’s primary back and averaged 17 touches per contest. The overall results for Ekeler with an expanded workload were mixed, but that usage indicates the Chargers’ brass is comfortable using Ekeler as a feature back when called upon.
Even if Gordon somehow reports to the club, Ekeler, who was the RB25 in PPR leagues last season, has proven stand-alone weekly value. If Ekeler opens the season as the team’s proverbial starter, he’s got true RB1 potential, especially in PPR formats.
If Gordon’s holdout drags into late August, which is fully expected at this point, Ekler’s ADP will skyrocket even more than it already has. Once a solid hand-cuff and PPR bargain that was available in the middle rounds, Ekeler is on his way to RB2/3 range, where he’d be a solid value as Gordon’s replacement.
Justin Jackson
2018 seventh-round RB Justin Jackson rushed for 206 yards and a pair of scores in his rookie campaign. Jackson also chipped in 15 grabs and looked quite well when he drew a Week 15 start after Austin Ekeler broke his hand. In that game, Jackson turned 20 touches into 85 yards and a score. In Weeks 12-13, with Gordon sidelined, Jackson came in as the change-of-pace option and broke off some big runs.
Expectations are that Austin Ekeler would simply take over Gordon’s heavy workload, but Ekeler (5-9, 199) is small and could struggle to hold up over a few games’ of an extended role. If Gordon missed regular-season time, Jackson could easily move into a solid, 10-12 touch role or possibly even to a timeshare.
Jackson’s ADP is now on the rise but is still so low that he’s widely available in the last round or two of many fantasy football drafts. People willing to invest in Gordon but who miss out on the opportunity to hand-cuff with Austin Ekler would be advised to take a stab on Jackson a round or two before his ADP, which is already trending up.
