The Detroit Lions landed one of the most coveted tight end prospects in quite some time selecting T.J. Hockenson with the 8th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. He was one of two (Noah Fant) Iowa tight ends to be selected in the 1st round of this year’s draft. In Hockenson’s two years at Iowa, he totaled 73 receptions for over 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Not only was he a productive receiver, but Hockenson is an elite blocker as well.
T.J. Hockenson was not only the first TE taken – he was also the highest-graded overall in the class. pic.twitter.com/iB4NppK9Bg
— PFF (@PFF) April 30, 2019
1st Round Tight End Production
Hockenson at 1.08 was the earliest a tight end has come off the board since the San Francisco 49ers spent the 6th overall pick on Vernon Davis back in 2006. Though his season was shortened by an injury, Davis was very productive as a rookie. Not just singling out Vernon Davis, but there haven’t been many impressive seasons strung together by tight ends selected in the 1st round. Below is a table displaying tight ends selected in the 1st round since 2007.
| Player | RK | GMS | TGTS | REC | YDS | TDS |
| Hayden Hurst | TE59 | 12 | 23 | 13 | 163 | 1 |
| O.J. Howard | TE21 | 14 | 39 | 26 | 432 | 6 |
| Evan Engram | TE5 | 15 | 115 | 64 | 722 | 6 |
| David Njoku | TE24 | 16 | 60 | 32 | 386 | 4 |
| Eric Ebron | TE40 | 13 | 47 | 25 | 248 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | TE29 | 15 | 60 | 39 | 445 | 2 |
| Jermaine Gresham | TE21 | 15 | 83 | 52 | 471 | 4 |
| Brandon Pettigrew | TE25 | 11 | 54 | 30 | 346 | 2 |
| Dustin Keller | TE14 | 16 | N/A | 48 | 535 | 3 |
| Greg Olsen | TE20 | 14 | N/A | 39 | 391 | 2 |
There you have it. It’s no secret that tight ends selected in the 1st round tend to struggle in their rookie season. The argument can be made that each player’s situation is unique. Based on the track record of 1st round tight ends, it seems like a long shot to find one that is fantasy relevant. Of the 10 players that were selected in the 1st round since 2007, just one of them finished the season as a TE1 in Fantasy Football. Let’s take a look at how Hockenson will fit into the Lions’ offense in 2019.
Detroit Lions Tight End Outlook
Going away with OC Jim Bob Cooter, the Lions have brought in former Vikings’ and Seahawks’ OC, Darrell Bevell. In his past 13 years as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, Bevell has only supported a Fantasy Football TE1 four times. Under Bevell, no tight end group as a whole has surpassed 90 total receptions in a season. However, he hasn’t always worked with the most elite tight ends, up until the Seahawks acquired Jimmy Graham.
Bevell played a part in the emergence of Visanthe Shiancoe in Minnesota and helped Jimmy Graham to back to back Top-6 Fantasy Football seasons in Seattle. In his 13 seasons as OC, Bevells tight ends have averaged almost 60 receptions on 100 targets for 685 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Now, this does include a stretch with the Seahawks where he didn’t have much talent in the tight end room. These numbers don’t jump off the page at you, but Bevell does know how to get tight ends the ball when presented with the right players.
| Darrell Bevell OC Career – TE Stats (13 Seasons) | ||||||
| TM/YR | TGTS | REC | YDS | TDS | RK (PPR) | Player |
| MIN 2006 | N/A | 21 | 132 | 2 | TE54 | R. Owens |
| MIN 2007 | N/A | 40 | 449 | 2 | TE33 | V. Shiancoe |
| MIN 2008 | N/A | 55 | 765 | 7 | TE5 | V. Shiancoe |
| MIN 2009 | 101 | 72 | 688 | 13 | TE9 | V. Shiancoe |
| MIN 2010 | 105 | 68 | 708 | 2 | TE21 | V. Shiancoe |
| SEA 2011 | 88 | 50 | 504 | 0 | TE44 | Z. Miller |
| SEA 2012 | 81 | 56 | 687 | 6 | TE30 | Z. Miller |
| SEA 2013 | 88 | 56 | 691 | 7 | TE25 | Z. Miller |
| SEA 2014 | 84 | 48 | 757 | 6 | TE28 | L. Willson |
| SEA 2015 | 133 | 86 | 1,019 | 4 | TE20 | J. Graham |
| SEA 2016 | 123 | 85 | 1,120 | 8 | TE4 | J. Graham |
| SEA 2017 | 132 | 84 | 797 | 15 | TE6 | J. Graham |
| SEA 2018 | 71 | 50 | 591 | 8 | TE30 | N. Vannett |
| AVG | 100 | 59 | 685 | 6 | TE24 | |
Lions tight end’s combined for just 13% of the team’s total receptions in 2018. In fact, the group as a whole combined for an underwhelming 45 receptions on 67 targets for 461 yards and 4 touchdowns. This was a glaring issue heading into the offseason, and the team addressed it. Prior to drafting Hockenson, the Detroit Lions signed former Steelers tight end, Jesse James. The Lions gave James a four-year contract worth $25 million. We should expect both Hockenson, and James to have a role in the offense. However, Hockenson should see the most snaps of the TE group given his ability to block.
2019 Projection & ADP
Projections powered by FantasyData expect Hockenson to vastly outperform James. With our current projections, Hockenson would finish as the TE24 in PPR formats. This may not be too far off considering how other 1st round tight end’s fared in their rookie year. He should be the fourth or fifth option for Matthew Stafford in the Lions’ offense. In fact, his 72.67 projected targets put him fourth on the team behind wide receivers Kenny Golladay, Marvin Jones, and Danny Amendola.
FantasyData has his ADP currently at 120.4 (TE12) which is much higher than his projection. At this current price, Hockenson should be avoided in all formats. However, he is worth a look as a TE2 with some upside in deeper leagues. Hockenson has all the attributes we look for in a tight end but could be a project in year one.
