Fantasy Football Rankings Update
Now that we’re full-blown into August, fantasy football rankings are on everybody’s minds. And there are certainly no shortages of rankings available to those interested in seeing how their own opinions match up to many of the football analysts and writer’s that spend way too much time anticipated this very moment.
Everywhere you look there are rankings. The key is to find a few trusted sources. While winning the FantasyPro’s Most Accurate Expert title back in 2012 was a nice achievement, for me to remain relevant in a crowded field, I have to continue to give solid advice. Now that I have access to Fantasy Data’s abundant database of advanced metrics, I’m able to see things through a whole different perspective.
That means that my rankings of several players really stand out versus the crowd of other analysts that participate in FantasyPro’s ECR, or Expert’s Consensus Ranks. Many things can, and will, change these rankings over the upcoming weeks, but let’s take a look at some of the players that I’m higher on and why I think they’re values.
Rankings based on PPR scoring
Quarterbacks
Kirk Cousins (Minnesota Vikings) QB12, ECR QB19 – Quarterback is crazy deep this year. Most quality fantasy players probably feel like there are 20-24 QBs that they feel they can legitimately win with. Kirk Cousins seems to be one of my favorite undervalued players annually. All he’s done is post QB1 number every season since he’s been an NFL starter, averaging just under 4,400 passing yards and posting 31 total touchdowns. Yes, the Vikings want to establish the run, but with Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen catching passes, I think Cousins has another QB1 campaign.
Tom Brady (New England Patriots) QB16, ECR QB21 – Hard to think a 42-year-old quarterback won’t regress some, but I can’t find any outrageous signs that Brady is about to fall off of a cliff. Even in a “down” 2018, he still threw for 4,355 yards and 31 total scores en route to another QB1 finish. Losing Rob Gronkowski will hurt, but likely not that bad. Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels will come up with an entirely new offense and Brady will look like a real value for the growing “wait on QB” crowd.
Running Backs
Devin Singletary (Buffalo Bills) RB36, ECR RB60 – With only fading veterans LeSean McCoy and Frank Gore ahead of him for carries, third-round rookie runner Devin Singletary has earned first-team reps at Bills’ camp and is turning heads. Singletary (5-7, 203) is small and ran a dreadful 4.66 40-yard dash at the combine, but he was second in the nation in missed tackles forced and actually flashed some McCoy-like skills at Florida Atlantic. The Bills should be among the run-heaviest teams in football, and Singletary could easily lead the backfield in touches. He’s an excellent bargain right now, but his ADP is sure to rise.
Jaylen Samuels (Pittsburgh Steelers) RB35, ECR RB51 – James Conner should remain Pittsburgh’s main running back, but Samuels flashed some major potential last season when Samuels was out. In Week 14, Samuels rushed 19 times for 142 yards against the Patriots. A converted tight end, Samuels really impressed as a pass-catcher, ranking second among all NFL running backs for the highest QB rating when being targeted. The Steelers have the third-most available targets (137) in football, which leaves plenty of opportunities for Samuels to make some plays, as both a runner and receiver.
Highest QB rating when targeted (20+) RBs
Kareem Hunt 145.6
Jaylen Samuels 129.7
Tevin Coleman 126.7
M. Breida 123.3
Damien Williams 122.2
Kenyan Drake 115.3
W. Smallwood 114.5
D. Sproles 114.4
Austin Ekeler 114
Melvin Gordon 112.9
Adrian Peterson 112.3
Christian McCaffrey 111.9— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 14, 2019
Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings) RB52, ECR RB64 – The Vikings want to establish the run, as witnessed in the final month of the 2018 season with Kevin Stefanski as the play-caller. Dalvin Cook has yet to show that he can stay healthy, so that means there is an excellent chance that third-round rookie banger Alexander Mattison is going to play an immediate role. Mattison has good size and power and showcased his receiving chops be catching a one-yard score in the preseason. Look for Mattison to fill the Latavius Murray role for the Vikings, which led to an average of 197 touches and seven touchdowns in two seasons with the Vikings. Mattison is a must-have handcuff for Cook owners but could have stand-alone value as an RB4.
Wide Receivers
Tyler Lockett (Seattle Seahawks) WR12, ECR WR20 – When sorting through those advanced metric and efficiency numbers this summer, I couldn’t help but come away impressed with Tyler Lockett, who broke out in a major way last season. Lockett easily had his best numbers and flashed some of the best hands in all of football. Now that Doug Baldwin is retired, Locket should move into the slot and is looking at exceeded triple-digit targets for the first time. He’s one of my most-owned players of the 2019 draft season.
Jarvis Landry (Cleveland Browns) WR19, ECR WR29 – It seems like every year I’m writing up Landry as an undervalued asset in PPR leagues, yet here we are again. Over his last five NFL season, Landry has averaged 152 targets per year and has never produced fewer than 80 receptions. He’s been a WR1 or WR2 in each of those five seasons, as well. The arrival of Odell Beckham Jr. should only help assure that Landry will continue to see secondary coverage and rack up tons of targets. I think he remains a tremendous value yet again, and will likely approach another 100-catch season.
Christian Kirk (Arizona Cardinals) WR28, ECR WR34 – Kirk has the potential to be a huge breakout candidate in 2019. With Kliff Kingsbury bringing in his fast-paced Air Raid offense, Kirk is going to see a ton of targets from all over the field. Not only is opportunity one of the biggest factors in predicting success, but Kirk was also excellent last season in a lousy situation with a moribund Arizona offense. According to Fantasy Data’s True Catch Rate, Kirk had a top-10 pair of hands in 2018. In this offense, he’s in an excellent spot to post WR2 numbers–or even better.
Tight Ends
Jason Witten (Dallas Cowboys) TE24, ECR TE31 – Old man Witten is not a player you necessarily want to target as your starting tight end. After all, he was a seriously declining option before sitting out all of last season. It’s hard to envision Witten ever recouping the kind of target numbers he used to post as Dak Prescott’s trusted outlet receiver. But there’s enough of a rapport there to suggest that Witten can put up useful TE2 numbers and be useful as a low-ceiling part of a rotation for the many owners who will choose to bypass the early tight ends. There’s little downside to taking a final-round stab at a sure-handed player who might still be capable of producing 50-plus grabs.
