Advanced Efficiency Metrics: Running Backs
We all know that volume is king in fantasy football. Especially when it comes to the running back position. However, there are some running backs that provide absurd efficiency from limited touches. Especially when the touches come from the passing game, it gives the running backs even more value. For this exercise, we are going to utilize some of the premium Advanced Efficiency Metrics on FantasyData. This includes fantasy points/opportunity, breakaway rate, yards created, and juke rate. We will dive deep to find some potential running backs to target in 2019 because of the efficiency they have shown in the past.
Fantasy Points/Opportunity
- 1. Alvin Kamara (1.16)
- 6. Kenyan Drake (1.04)
- 7. Austin Ekeler (1.02) / Aaron Jones (1.02)
- 11. T.J. Yeldon (0.95)
- 14. Mike Davis (.89) / Kerryon Johnson (.89)
Austin Ekeler made the most of his touches in his last year with the Chargers. Seventh overall in fantasy points per opportunity and first overall in breakaway rate. Breakaway rate is defined as total carries of 15 or more yards. Ekeler’s rate was at an astonishing 9.4% which was the highest of any running back over the last two seasons. His ten rushes over 15 yards ranked 14th highest in the NFL. For perspective Kamara’s 2017 campaign had him at a 9.2% breakaway rate with 11 rushes over 25 yards; almost identical to Ekeler just with 221 touches versus Ekeler’s 159.
While most fantasy owners were complaining that Green Bay Packers’ Aaron Jones was not seeing the ball enough, perhaps it should have Ekeler we should have been asking to see more of. With the most recent news of the Melvin Gordon holdout, it looks like we are going to get our wish. Consider that Ekeler and Gordon combined for 400 touches last season. Ekeler saw 159 touches (40%). If Ekeler saw just 200 touches with his efficiency he would have ended the season as a low-end RB1. 200 touches, might not be out of the question considering how the running back is used in the Los Angeles offense. It was 40-60 with Ekeler and Gordon, so I would expect more of a 50-50 split with Jackson entering the Gordon role. As it stands right now with training camp news Ekeler is the presumed starter.
Austin Ekeler took the first reps with starters when #Chargers opened camp. No. 5 in YPC last season & registered @PFF‘s No. 6 elusive rating at RB. Touch counts of 17, 18, and 17 in three games played without Melvin Gordon. Functional in pass game. He’s the RB to own for LAC. pic.twitter.com/aWu9qj5NeM
— Nick Mensio (@NickMensio) July 26, 2019
The more surprising backs that come to fruition in terms of efficiency, especially from a comparative standpoint, are Kerryon Johnson and Mike Davis. They averaged the same fantasy points/opportunity and that is based on extremely similar sample sizes. The reason Johnson has so much buzz outside the release of Theo Riddick was his breakaway rate. He made a ton of big plays in 2018 with a 6.8% breakaway rate which ranked tenth in the NFL. But considering how efficient Davis was in comparison to Johnson at the price difference makes Davis an intriguing running back to target late.
2018:
Kerryon Johnson
118 attempts, 641 rushing yards, 5.4 ypc, 3 TDs, 39 tgts, 32 rec, 213 receiving yards, 1 TD, fpts/opp (.89)Mike Davis
112 attempts, 514 rushing yards, 4.6 ypc, 4 TDs, 42 tgts, 34 rec, 214 receiving yards, 1 TD, fpts/opp (.89) pic.twitter.com/JmVWGCdSsB— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) July 29, 2019
Juke Rate
- 1. Dalvin Cook (38.2%)
- 6. Kenyan Drake (34.7%)
- 9. Josh Adams (31.5%)
- 12. T.J. Yeldon (29.6%)
- 16. Mike Davis (28.1%)
Part of the reason why Davis had so much success in 2018 was because of his juke rate of 28.1%. That ranked 16th overall in the NFL. This advanced metric isolates a running back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches. Juke rate has a positive correlation on fantasy points per opportunity as seen with running backs like T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake.
Considering the state of the Miami Dolphins offensive line grading out via Pro Football Focus as the 4th worst run-blocking unit in 2018 and worst run-blocking unit in 2017 whoever the running back is will have to make plays on their own. Drake has shown his elusiveness at the NFL level consistently. With Ballage in 2018, his juke rate measured out to 20.5% on 36 rushing attempts which ranked 36th in the league. Ballage’s college production from Arizona State does not profile him as an elusive runner. Via Pro Football Focus, Ballage’s college elusive rating ranked 74th overall in the FBS his senior season.
The other running back in a crowded backfield that could emerge is Yeldon. Yeldon’s juke rate came in right under the 30% threshold at 29.6%. What made the efficiency of Yeldon so great was not actually because of his receiving ability, rather his running ability. Yeldon ranked only behind three other players in fantasy points per attempt: Kamara (1.79), Christian McCaffrey (1.76), and Drake (1.67). Yeldon’s finished at 1.66. With the fossils of Frank Gore and LeSean McCoy, along with rookie Devin Singletary in the running back room, Yeldon advanced efficiency metrics could prove he’s the back to own in Buffalo.
Breakaway Rate
- 1. Austin Ekeler (9.4%)
- 2. Matt Breida (8.5%)
- 10. Kerryon Johnson (6.8%)
- 11. Josh Adams (6.7%)
As mentioned above why highlighting Ekeler, the breakaway rate is another greatly advanced efficiency metric. Matt Breida’s 8.5% breakaway rate was second-best in the NFL, which is why he is an easy target when your draft strategy involves going zero RB.
Josh Adams from the Eagles is not necessarily a player that is worth targeting in your drafts, as the Eagles backfield is extremely crowded. However, it does show the efficiency upside running backs like Jordan Howard or Miles Sanders could benefit by running behind an elite offensive line. The one attribute that Adams does definitely get a ton of credit for though is yards created per attempt.
Yards Created Per Attempt
- 1. Derrick Henry (2.39)
- 2. Isaiah Crowell (2.30)
- 8. Josh Adams (1.8)
- 16. Doug Martin (1.57)
Yards created are defined as all yards above and beyond what was blocked. Yards created are generated by the runner after the first evaded tackle. The Eagles’ Adams ranked eighth overall in 2018. Number one to no surprise was Derrick Henry, but what is extremely interesting was Crowell at number two behind the Jets’ subpar offensive line. Crowell was averaging 4.8 yards per attempt last season and apparently, almost 50% of those yards were coming from Crowell alone.
Interestingly enough the Raiders signed Crowell before drafting Josh Jacobs perhaps because they felt behind the Oakland offensive line they would need a back who could create yards on their own. Doug Martin who ultimately replaced Crowell as the veteran after Crowell’s injury was also excellent in yards created per attempt ranking 16th overall in 2018. But the main takeaway here is that the rookie from Alabama definitely fits the mold of a back that creates yards on his own; something the Raiders seem to value.
According to YardsCreated.com, Jacobs created five or more yards on 37% of his charted attempts last season, tying Saquon Barkley for the third-best rate over the last four college seasons. Jacobs’ 0.41 missed tackles forced per attempt is the 10th-best mark in yards created history by Graham Barfield and puts him in the same conversation as Nick Chubb (0.47), Kareem Hunt (0.47), Sony Michel (0.46), Christian McCaffrey (0.40), and Ezekiel Elliott (0.38) coming out of college.
Conclusion
These advanced efficiency metrics can give us insight into when a breakout can be on the horizon for an up and coming running back. If you want to make sure that you are the first to identify the next breakout star be sure to subscribe to access all the premium content for all the information! From juke rate to fantasy points per opportunity your opponents won’t know how you got so good! Sign up today!
