Jordan Howard Fantasy
After finishing as the RB20 overall and RB31 in points per game during the 2018 season, Jordan Howard finds himself on a new team in 2019. The Philadelphia Eagles traded a conditional 2020 sixth-round pick to acquire Howard this offseason. But the Eagles did not stop with Howard to upgrade the running back position after injuries plagued them in 2018. In the 2018 NFL Draft, they drafted Miles Sanders with the 53rd pick in the second round. So how will this Eagles running back depth chart project out? Will Howard be the starting running back just waiting to be unseated by Sanders later into 2019? Or will this mimic a Tarik Cohen/Howard experience from Chicago? And to make matters even more difficult the Eagles recently signed veteran running back Darren Sproles. Let’s dive in and evaluate Howard’s fantasy value for fantasy football in 2019.
What Do The Numbers Say
If you search the term “plodder” on any search engine you will stumble upon the following definition: a person who walks doggedly and slowly with heavy steps. This has been the biggest knock on Howard’s game in the NFL is that he is, in fact, a plodder. This can be seen on film and is representative of his workout metrics. According to PlayerProfiler.com Howard has a 37th percentile SPARQ-x score and his closest comparable player is fellow plodding running back Carlos Hyde. But despite his status as a plodder, Howard has put up elite numbers since entering the NFL in 2016.
Howard has never been regarded as an elite running back but his production over the past three seasons is in an elite company. Since 2011 there have only been three running backs to achieve at least 3,000 rushing yards, 24 rushing touchdowns, and 72 receptions in their first three seasons. That list includes Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, and Howard. Since the year 2000, only 12 running backs have ever achieved that statistical threshold within their first three seasons. Some of the names on the list include LaDainian Tomlinson, Arian Foster, Clinton Portis, Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, Jamal Lewis, LeSean McCoy, and Travis Henry. You can see the full list here from Pro Football Reference. But despite an early success especially in his rookie season, Howard has been on the decline over the past two seasons.
Steady Decline
His time in Chicago seemed destined to end after the Bears acquired Cohen in 2017. Over the last three seasons, Howard’s yard per attempt went from 5.2 to 4.1 and then to 3.7 last season. The reason for that fall was because of the lack of explosive plays. His rushes over 10 yards went from 43 in 2016, to 32 in 2017, down to just 19 in 2016. He also just saw 10 attempts over 15 yards and via Pro Football Focus ranked 46th out of 47 in Elusive Rating of all running backs with at least 100 carries.
According to the newer advanced running back metrics, on FantasyData.com Howard opportunity share (The percentage of the total team running back carries plus targets) decreased from 60.7 % in 2017 to 55.6% in 2018. Additionally, Howard had the highest percentage of total carries (55.2%) out of the shotgun position in 2018 for 4.2 yards per attempt. Howard’s career average in shotgun formations is 5.2 yards per attempt. That lines up extremely well within the context of the Eagles offense projecting to 2019. Warren Shap weighs in on how often the Eagles call running plays from the shotgun position.
The Eagles took snaps from shotgun the 2nd most often in the NFL (Chiefs) and when in shotgun, had the 4th highest run rate. https://t.co/VIovvJRa3h
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 27, 2019
According to the advanced efficiency metrics on FantasyData.com, Howard’s juke rate ranks outside the top 100 and is the second-lowest of any running back with at least 150 carries at 10.7%. Juke rate isolates a running back’s on-field elusiveness and tackle-breaking power by dividing the total number of evaded tackles by the total number of touches (carries plus receptions). Howard’s yards created per attempt (.59) ranks again second-worst of any running back with at least 150 carries. If you are wondering who the worst running back is in both of these cases it’s Alfred Blue. But with what we have seen in the past with running backs that just play in great offenses, is that efficiency is not as important in terms of fantasy production.
If Howard is the early-down back behind the Eagles offensive line, he will be valued at his current ADP of RB38 via Fantasy Football Calculator. Since 2011 via Pro Football Focus, the Eagles have never ranked outside the top-seven in NFL run-blocking grade. That efficiency strongly carries over to the running back position. Especially in the red zone where Howard has been uber efficient.
Red Zone and Ball Security
Howard over the past three seasons has scored 23 of his 24 rushing touchdowns from inside the 20-yard line. 22 of those 24 touchdowns have come on 1st or 2nd down. Additionally, on first and second down Howard has averaged 4.4 yards per attempt. The Eagles have averaged 3.4 red zone scoring attempts per game over the past two seasons. From 2017-2018, 13 of Howard’s 18 touchdowns came from in the 10-yard line. Also in 2017, the Bears ranked 31st in red zone scoring attempts (2.1). Needless to say, Howard has proven to be very successful in the red zone role despite occurrences when he did not have a plethora of opportunities.
Ball security is also on the side of Howard to help him maintain a starting role. Howard in his NFL career has just five fumbles on over 750 carries, whereas Sanders is entering the NFL with a concerning fumbling issue. Sanders fumbled ten times at the collegiate level. That is the easiest way to lose market share in a running back by committee backfield. Sanders has the highest potential of all the running backs on the Eagles, but he could be slow to start after already missing organized team activities and mandatory minicamps due to an injured hamstring. The addition of Sproles also dampers immediate contributions that Sanders could make in the passing game.
Jordan Howard Projection
For targets in the passing game, I referenced 101 passing targets in my Miles Sanders article that would go to the running backs. Sanders and Sproles, I fully expect one to lead the team in targets at the running back position. However, I do expect Howard to receiver a small number of targets. With just 39 targets remaining to backs, I would project Howard for 50% of those targets or 20% of the total running back targets. With Howard’s career catch rate of 66.7% and 7.9 yards per reception, Howard’s passing game work projects to 13 receptions on 20 targets for 105 yards. These numbers are not polarizing what so ever, but it’s going to be Howard’s touchdown upside that will create his fantasy value.
In 2018, the Bears over the past three seasons have averaged 2.86 red zone scoring attempts per game, while the Eagles have had 3.4 every single season over the past three. Howard has scored 23 touchdowns in the red zone with that rate. That’s a rate of eight red zone rushing touchdowns per season. Now if you bump that rate up to 3.4 it projects to nine red zone touchdowns for Howard. Now with Howard only scoring one receiving touchdown in his career and scoring one rushing touchdown outside the red zone, it’s difficult to project either of those to happen. But in Pederson’s two years with the team, the Eagles designated starting back did catch one touchdown (Ryan Mathews 2016, LeGarrette Blount 2017), so we can be optimistic Howard can score a receiving touchdown in an offense that projects to throw a lot.
So after all the projections, Howard final line for 2019 looks like 718 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 13 receptions, 105 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. That would be good for RB30 finish in PPR formats and RB24 finish in standard formats. The most important thing regarding Howard is the fact that he is so touchdown-dependent. Over his past 32 games played in PPR formats, Howard has exceeded double-digit fantasy points just four times without scoring a touchdown. Lucky for him via Jimmy Kempski of the Philly Voice reports that Jordan Howard is expected to get the “lion’s share” of short-yardage work and will be the closer in the second half of games.
Final Thoughts
Our goal was to project Howard’s fantasy value for fantasy football in 2019. What we have found is that Howard though inconsistent at times (Nine top 12 finishes last season), he does offer value as an RB3. Again at his current draft price, he will be an asset for your fantasy team especially in the beginning of the season until Sanders is fully brought up to speed. However, his specific skillset does not prove to provide the ultimate amount of upside so I would recommend drafting Howard confidently over Sanders and looking to sell high as the season progresses! Maybe you can go get Derrick Henry in a trade as he notoriously starts slow. Additionally, the signing of Sproles should not be overlooked. Make sure to adjust your rankings accordingly.
Thanks for Reading!
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