“Utilized Rate” – Advanced Metrics to Spot Fantasy Opportunity

The growth of analytics and advanced metrics has permeated every sport and fantasy football is no different. It seems like every season a new spreadsheet or metric makes waves as the hot new predictive tool that will help lead the public to the promised land. While we are proud to offer the numbers behind many of those very metrics, often a simpler variable can be just as useful. 

In this case, volume and opportunity are often overlooked metrics and are actually quite straight forward. Players that are on the field and commanding touches and targets tend to ultimately be the best at producing fantasy points. Of course, health is key to racking up touches and a player has to be effective to continue to warrant carries and targets. That’s why touch rate and target share can be useful tools in the arsenal of the well-prepared fantasy football drafter. 

What is Utilized Rate?

FantasyData’s new Utilized Rate, or UTIL% measures the percentage of snaps played where a player actually has a real opportunity to produces fantasy points. UTIL% combines rushing attempts, all targets, and even all pass attempts to provide a true measure of just how efficient a player is at churning out fantasy points on a per-snap basis. 

Using Fantasy Data’s new Utilized Rate, or UTIL%, let’s take a look at which players received the highest percentage of touches and targets last year and how we can best use those numbers to predict success in 2019. 

Running Backs

Rashaad Penny was the Seattle running back coveted last year, but Chris Carson wound up being the club’s workhorse. Carson received a carry or target on 60% of the plays in which he was on the field, which ranked second in the NFL. Making that even more impressive was the fact that Carson was only on the field for 45.1% of Seattle’s snaps, yet still commanded such volume. While Penny is expected to be more involved in Year Two, Carson should still be considered the overwhelming favorite to lead the league’s run-heaviest offense in touches. He’s a nice value right now at his modest RB25 ADP. Sony Michel was a huge part of the gameplan when he was on the field. Unfortunately, he was only on the field for 28.9% of New England’s snaps. Michel isn’t involved much in the passing game and could even lose touches to third-round rookie Damien Harris. Even if he’s healthy, Michel won’t be very involved in the passing game, either. Michel’s unsustainable utilized rate, added competition, and an ever-evolving Patriots’ offense make the sophomore running back a little riskier than we’d like to see. 

Derrick Henry finally lived up to the hype–at least for half the season. After another plodding first half of 2018, Henry exploded down the stretch, rushing for 585 yards and seven scores in Tennessee’s final four games. Henry was utilized on 58.6% of the Titans’ snaps and the plan is for the club to run Henry, who is entering a contract year, early and often in 2019. Recency bias has set in and Herny is already being drafted as high as the early third round. A poor receiver, it’s going to be difficult for Henry to sustain that kind of usage without the benefit of targets, which makes him quite touchdown-dependant. 

Once Derrius Guice is finally healthy enough to take the field, Adrian Peterson won’t have a lot of value. Peterson exceeded expectations last season, playing over 30 snaps per game and finishing fourth in the league with a 57.6% utilized rate. The only way Peterson comes anywhere near that number again is if Guice is unable to play. The track record for 34-year-old running backs isn’t great, so view Peterson as a handcuff or potentially part of a rotation, giving him situational value. 

Leonard Fournette also has trouble staying on the field, but he’s highly productive when he’s active. Fournette ranked fifth with a 55.4% touch share. In addition, Fournette is an underrated receiver who should be much more involved in that area after the Jaguars let T.J. Yeldon leave via free agency. The signing of QB Nick Foles should also be a huge upgrade for the entire Jacksonville offense, which should lead to fewer stacked boxes for Fournette. In terms of PPR points per game, Fournette has finished 10th and 12th in his two seasons and should be poised to have another RB1 finish in a far better situation. 

Everything about Nick Chubb‘s usage tells us that he will be Cleveland’s featured back, despite the looming presence of Kareem Hunt in the season’s second half. In 2018, Chubb was used sparingly for the first seven weeks before exploding for 799 rushing yards and eight touchdowns in the next nine games. During that stretch, Chubb averaged 20.5 touches per game, which would be about 330 over the course of a 16-game schedule. Chubb should be viewed as an RB1 or high-end RB2. 

Phillip Lindsay was almost entirely ignored in 2018 fantasy drafts as owners rushed to get their hands on prized rookie Royce Freeman. Instead, undrafted Lindsay unseated Freeman and wound up touching the ball over half the time he was in the backfield. Lindsay’s 52.8% utilized rate ranked eighth in the NFL and he posted RB13 overall numbers. Early talk out of Broncos’ camp is that Freeman has looked solid and there’s talk that the team will trot out of committee. Lindsay was clearly better last year but looks a little risky heading into his sophomore season. 

Wide Receivers

No real surprise to see Julio Jones show up well in yet another metric. Jones led all wideouts by receiving over one-fifth of his team’s total targets, despite the fact that he only ranked 27th in total snaps and 35th in snap share among all NFL wideouts. Jones tends to get dinged up often but managed to play all 16 games and hauled in the second-most touchdowns of his brilliant career. Jones’ extreme volume and track record assure that he remains one of the safest bets in fantasy football and should continue to be featured early and often in a potent Atlanta offense. 

Golden Tate‘s production dipped precipitously but some of that can perhaps be attributed to being traded and having to learn a new system and terminology. Despite the reduced efficiency, Tate had plenty of opportunities, ranking second with a 19.3% utilized rate. While Tate also ranked second with an 18.6% target share, he only played 607 snaps in 15 games, which led to a fairly low 61.8% snap rate. Tate should be on the field a lot more with the Giants, but the reduction in supporting cast talent could tend to have more of a negative impact than any defensive back. 

Take any time to dig deep and look into advanced metrics and the name Albert Wilson just keeps popping. Wilson was crazy efficient with his limited opportunities in 2018 and could be a real threat out of the slot, especially if QB Ryan Fitzpatrick wins Miami’s starting gig to open the season. Wilson is a must-have, late-round target that is well worth his lowly ADP. 

Albert Wilson current ADP WR77

•Produced a perfect 158.3 QB Rating out of the slot
•2nd among all WRs with 273 yards after contact (in only 7 games)
•2nd among all WRs (30+ targets) with 2.77 fantasy points per target
•3rd in yards per route run
•4th in yards per target

— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) July 16, 2019

While Adam Thielen has a higher price tag, Stefon Diggs is the Minnesota Vikings’ wideout to target. Diggs is a tremendous route-runner, has more touchdown potential and big-play ability, and really came on after the club promoted Kevin Stefanski to offensive coordinator last year. Diggs earned 17.2% of Minnesota’s targets last season, which ranked sixth. He also out-targeted Thielen in seven of the last 10 games of the season. He’s got a real shot at top-10 wide receiver numbers if he stays healthy. 

Odell Beckham Jr. ranked fifth with an 18.3% utilized rate in 12 games. Now with the Browns, who have a vastly better quarterback and deeper supporting cast, Beckham should remain a top-5 fantasy option in all formats. If Beckham continues to command over 17% of Baker Mayfield’s targets, he’s got 1,500/13+ potential with the Browns. 

Even with sophomore Mike Williams making some noise with double-digit TD grabs, Keenan Allen continued to be a huge part of the Chargers’ offense. Allen ranked sixth with an 18.2% utilized rate, which was all the more impressive for a player that played fewer than 50 snaps per game. When Allen is on the field, which hasn’t been as often as we’d like, he’s as good as they come. Also, Allen’s targets share could get even higher if RB Melvin Gordon’s holdout drags into the regular season. 

Davante Adams ranked ninth with 954 snaps and fourth with 63.6 snaps per game. Adams’ excellent 17.7 utilized rate also was once again 100% via the pass. Adams has not had a rushing attempt in his NFL career, a rarity among today’s elite wideouts. After ousting Mike McCarthy, Green Bay’s offense should rebound nicely, which will lead to another fantastic season for Adams as the clubs’ unquestioned No. 1 playmaker. 

DeSean Jackson tied Davante Adams by warranting a touch on 17.7% of his snaps. Jackson is often labeled a boom-or-bust player, but as those numbers show, he’s capable of being a huge part of any week’s gameplan. Now that he’s back in Philadelphia with a potent Eagles’ offense, Jackson’s utilized rate is due to drop but he has a much better chance at posting better overall value due to a much-improved supporting cast and team. D-Jax is an excellent WR4/5 at his current ADP. 

Now that we know Tyreek Hill won’t be suspended, we can safely pencil in the dynamic playmaker with another top-10 fantasy season. Hill averaged just a 15.1% targets share, but was also a dangerous runner who averaged 6.9 yards per carry and has four rushing scores in his first three seasons. While Kansas City’s backfield is somewhat less settled, Hill should once again be a huge part of the Chiefs’ offense and could see his utilized rate grow even higher.

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Tight Ends

Eric Ebron‘s 18% utilized rate looks good but there’s almost zero chance he repeats such prominent usage in 2019. The Colts added WR Devin Funchess to take away some of Erbon’s red-zone looks and second-round WR Parris Campbell should eat into Ebron’s snaps. Speaking of that, Ebron was out-snapped in five of the six games in which both Ebron and Jack Doyle suited up. By all accounts, Doyle will be healthy and back in the starting lineup for Week 1. Ebron is a massive regression candidate who posted unsustainable TD rates and won’t be utilized anywhere near as much as he was one year ago. 

Among non-QB skill position players, only WRs DeAndre Hopkins, Robert Woods, and Adam Thielen played more snaps than Zach Ertz, who was on the field for 1,000 plays. Ertz ranked top-5 in every utilized rate metric and led all NFL tight ends with 156 targets. The Eagles added some solid pieces to their offense and also have promising TE Dallas Godert in the fold, so it’s hard to envision Ertz improving on his fantastic 2018 season. But as long as he stays involved in over 15% of Philly’s plays, Ertz is going to post top-3 fantasy numbers, making him a huge asset in PPR leagues. 

Ditto for Travis Kelce, who has topped 80 grabs and 1,000 receiving yards in three consecutive seasons. Kelce led all tight ends with a 94.9% snap rate and accounted for over 15% of Patrick Mahomes’ targets, including 13 looks inside the 10-yard-line. With all the key parts of their prolific passing offense back in place, Kelce is poised to have another fantastic finish and should be utilized once again at an elite rate. 

Here’s hoping that George Kittle can repeat his nifty 14.8% utilized rate this season with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Garoppolo should be a substantial improvement over the signal-callers that San Francisco trotted out last season, yet Kittle still balled out with an 88/1,377/5 campaign. Kittle stayed healthy and was on the field for 58 plays per game, the fourth-highest rate among all NFL tight ends. 

Jared Cook easily had the best season of his career and is in an excellent spot to get even better with Drew Brees as his new quarterback. The problem, of course, is that the Saints spread the ball around and it will be hard for the 32-year-old veteran tight end to come anywhere near that 13.2% utilized rate with RB Alvin Kamara and WR Michael Thomas also on the field. Cook could still top his strong 2018 numbers with fewer touches and opportunities, but he’ll have to do so with fewer overall snaps. 

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